Monday, August 31 - Thursday, September 3, 2026 Convective Episodes

[Cyclone-68]

There must be a reason why the same areas have been struck repeatedly. I’ll settle for a garden variety storm at this point 

[weatherwiz]

19 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Quite the temp gradient b/w NJ and CT upper 80's to 60's eastern half of CT

Yup...definitely want to focus where that sets up. It could be an active night tomorrow night, especially if activity across NY/NE PA is more widespread than modeled. That's some hefty elevated instability moving overhead later in the evening. When you have large MUCAPE building in and either weak forcing or already established convection...convection tends to either persist or continue blossoming. 

[Chrisrotary12]

Over/under 0.5 rumbles of thunder heard this week

[weatherwiz]

Updated to extend to Thursday. NAM, GFS, and Euro are in agreement in the warm sector expanding northeast on Thursday as the upper-level trough swinging across southeastern Canada along with the eastward progression of the parent low help lift the surface warm front into the region. Pretty strong shear too. 

Tuesday looks good for southeast propagating storms at least across western CT with some severe risk. Much of Wednesday is dry but may see a round of rain and storms move across the region Wednesday night. Thursday we get stuff ahead of the actual front.