Septorcher 2026 Discussion - Endless Summer

[Damage In Tolland]

7 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

But hey at least we’ll get some cute cumulus clouds and pop up showers this weekend

 

We literally are the only area of the country that didn’t crushed with severe this summer . Just gouging eyes out with grapefruit spoon 

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ironically that one ended up missing me last night 

I think you’ve missed 15 tstms within 40 miles from you. 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We literally are the only area of the country that didn’t crushed with severe this summer . Just gouging eyes out with grapefruit spoon 

I’ve never seen anything like it. 

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think you’ve missed 15 tstms within 40 miles from you. 

At least. There were a few that were like 5 miles or less. Stafford had one , Vernon another. Mostly in Junorch and Julorch 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I love how some resign themselves to a winter absent of snow or cold, and then throw temper tantrums when tornado alley doesn't wind a path into New England during the summer.

[Damage In Tolland]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’ve never seen anything like it. 

I keep thinking and wondering how or if Mother Nature is going to make it up to us. It won’t be with snow. But I could see a bunch of screaming , damaging sou’easters hitting us this fall and winter.

[CoastalWx]

24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I keep thinking and wondering how or if Mother Nature is going to make it up to us. It won’t be with snow. But I could see a bunch of screaming , damaging sou’easters hitting us this fall and winter.

SVR season is in February.

[CoastalWx]

29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I keep thinking and wondering how or if Mother Nature is going to make it up to us. It won’t be with snow. But I could see a bunch of screaming , damaging sou’easters hitting us this fall and winter.

Only chance of an interesting fall is home brew a stuff off SE coast. 

[CoastalWx]

31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I love how some resign themselves to a winter absent of snow or cold, and then throw temper tantrums when tornado alley doesn't wind a path into New England during the summer.

At least summer gives some interesting weather usually. It’s been like San Diego here and I’m not holding out hopes for anything this winter that will move the weenie. I acknowledge we could get near normal snow in spots, but I’m not getting my hopes up after years of depression. Positivity is a waste. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Only chance of an interesting fall is home brew a stuff off SE coast. 

Could actually see that happen. We have to be paid back somehow for all the boredom and misses. The devil is in the details 

[CoastalWx]

26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

At least summer gives some interesting weather usually. It’s been like San Diego here and I’m not holding out hopes for anything this winter that will move the weenie. I acknowledge we could get near normal snow in spots, but I’m not getting my hopes up after years of depression. Positivity is a waste. 

Not being a negative Nancy, but I’m not sure leaning on the positive side is a good thing. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

At least summer gives some interesting weather usually. It’s been like San Diego here and I’m not holding out hopes for anything this winter that will move the weenie. I acknowledge we could get near normal snow in spots, but I’m not getting my hopes up after years of depression. Positivity is a waste. 

Winter is far more interesting to me. 

[CT Valley Snowman]

If you offered me normal snowfall this winter, I'd take it and run.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not being a negative Nancy, but I’m not sure leaning on the positive side is a good thing. 

Here is a crazy idea...how about objectivity over negativity and positivity?

Just a thought-

[CoastalWx]

50 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Winter is far more interesting to me. 

Depends on how it behaves. 40 and mud makes me want to martyr myself. 

[CoastalWx]

25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Here is a crazy idea...how about objectivity over negativity and positivity?

Just a thought-

I am being objective. 

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Only chance of an interesting fall is home brew a stuff off SE coast. 

Hopefully.. those waters are pretty much untouched so far.. 

[ineedsnow]

https://x.com/foxweather/status/2095874526978654260

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Hopefully.. those waters are pretty much untouched so far.. 

The upper-level pattern has done wonders to really warm the waters too in recent weeks. +28C to +29C up to the NC/VA border

Speaking of water temperatures, where all the people freaking out about that "cold blob" in the north Atlantic that is no longer really there  

[rimetree]

Can we bring back the coastals this fall? NE 35 with gusts to 55 maybe. 

[kdxken]

Folks whining about the weather? Lolz

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I am being objective. 

I think you're trying to be, but I think everyone would attest to the fact that you have some sort of underling assumption that winter will suck, which predisposes you to an inherent bias.

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The upper-level pattern has done wonders to really warm the waters too in recent weeks. +28C to +29C up to the NC/VA border

Speaking of water temperatures, where all the people freaking out about that "cold blob" in the north Atlantic that is no longer really there  

I was adamant that it would do away... I do not expect a mean -NAO this winter.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was adamant that it would do away... I do not expect a mean -NAO this winter.

yeah I don't get what all that hype and "doomsday" view on that was all about. At least IMO, a part of me believes too its part of the decline of the +AMO regime as we strive towards a -AMO regime. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

yeah I don't get what all that hype and "doomsday" view on that was all about. At least IMO, a part of me believes too its part of the decline of the +AMO regime as we strive towards a -AMO regime. 

Segment from July 25th blog:

Alternative Scenarios....AKA "What can Go 'Wrong' "

Lagged North Atlantic Climate Response to Solar Variability

 

There has been a primary emphasis within this writing to adequately portray the sun as the both the omnipotent and omnipresent figure that it is as it pertains to the earth's atmosphere. Indeed, from it's influence on the polar domain via the modulation of ENSO by the degree of solar irradiance emitted, it's modulation of the arctic via the transmission of geomagnetic energy via the solar wind throughout the stratosphere, it's reach around the globe is boundless. It has also been established that the atmosphere in largely governed by the oft delayed feedback between the land, sea and air that serves to budget the immense degree of solar energy that is concentrated around the equator by redistributing it upward. First in altitude via the convergence and upward ascent of air due to convection, which is a term referring to concentrated areas of showers and thunderstorms. Then eventually poleward by both major storms such as hurricanes, which are essentially spinning gyres of convection, as well as ocean currents and oscillations. This epitomizes how the cycle of ocean and air processes act to budget heat around the globe, which was touched upon in an oblique manner when referencing the interplay between the sun and the poles at work in the "bottom-up" theory. The work of Sciafe et al, 2013 is revolutionary in that it ostensibly bridges the previously discussed works concerning polar sensitivity to the solar cycle with prior research (Czaja, 2002) positing a 6 month lag between the leading of the NAO by the 500mb pattern over the Atlantic. The work posits the Atlantic also has a sensitivity to solar UV variability that triggers an immediate atmospheric signature that takes several years to accumulate in the subsurface of the ocean, during which time the atmospheric response progressively increases as part of a coupled feedback between the ocean and atmosphere. The response continuously projects onto the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and the familiar tripole pattern in North Atlantic sea surface temperature, as referenced by Cjaza et al (2002), with a lag time of 2-4 years (Sciafe et al 2013). Thus is it is reasonable to conclude from the preponderance of evidence owed to a multitude of varied research efforts that changes in solar irradiance along the progression of the solar cycle trigger instant surface responses that subsequently progress through the subsurface, and then ultimately resurface through a process of meridional overturning. This reemergence fosters a delayed feedback (6 months) between the sea and air that can be self-sustaining. Member stormchaserchuck1 at Americanwx.com weather forum has put this theory into practice. His index consists of a measurement of May 1 - Sept 30 SSTs in the North Atlantic. It's correlated to following November-March NAO/AO (+6 month lag). The index is a composite of 2 areas in the

 

  North Atlantic (blue box - red box). Because the northern area has more volatility, the total dataset, SSTs and NAOwere normalized by multiplying the total historical absolute number of both, and dividing it by each other. 

When blue box is cold SSTs, a negative NAO is implied for Winter.

 When red box in warm SSTs, a negative NAO Winter. For comparison, and red box is 65%

 value of blue box anomaly (so -1 blue +0.65 red is same thing). Visa versa.

Thus far, through July 15, which is about 50% of the way through the identified May 1st- September 30th period, it is estimated that the index currently signals approximately a -0.40 for DJFM NAO predictor. Since the standard deviation is .50, there is it a 50% chance of having the DJFM NAO calculate between -0.90 and +.10.

The .40 mean of the polar analog composite would rival the 2012-2013 season and would be the most negative NAO season since 2009-2010. Unsurprisingly, both of these seasons occurred during the easterly phase of the QBO and coincided with the ascending portion of the solar cycle. Given the previously discussed westerly phase of the QBO that is ongoing in conjunction with the pending peak in geomagnetic energy, it is expected that this formula will normalize over the course of the next two+ months. In the event that it does not, it should be interpreted as a nod towards the increased volatility within the polar domain relative to the classic east-based seasons that has been advertised. The fact that ample evidence has been provided for increased volatility during the second half of the DJFM winter season also implies that this may represent a feasible plausibility that will need to be evaluated over between now and the onset of boreal winter

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Segment from July 25th blog:

Alternative Scenarios....AKA "What can Go 'Wrong' "

Lagged North Atlantic Climate Response to Solar Variability

 

There has been a primary emphasis within this writing to adequately portray the sun as the both the omnipotent and omnipresent figure that it is as it pertains to the earth's atmosphere. Indeed, from it's influence on the polar domain via the modulation of ENSO by the degree of solar irradiance emitted, it's modulation of the arctic via the transmission of geomagnetic energy via the solar wind throughout the stratosphere, it's reach around the globe is boundless. It has also been established that the atmosphere in largely governed by the oft delayed feedback between the land, sea and air that serves to budget the immense degree of solar energy that is concentrated around the equator by redistributing it upward. First in altitude via the convergence and upward ascent of air due to convection, which is a term referring to concentrated areas of showers and thunderstorms. Then eventually poleward by both major storms such as hurricanes, which are essentially spinning gyres of convection, as well as ocean currents and oscillations. This epitomizes how the cycle of ocean and air processes act to budget heat around the globe, which was touched upon in an oblique manner when referencing the interplay between the sun and the poles at work in the "bottom-up" theory. The work of Sciafe et al, 2013 is revolutionary in that it ostensibly bridges the previously discussed works concerning polar sensitivity to the solar cycle with prior research (Czaja, 2002) positing a 6 month lag between the leading of the NAO by the 500mb pattern over the Atlantic. The work posits the Atlantic also has a sensitivity to solar UV variability that triggers an immediate atmospheric signature that takes several years to accumulate in the subsurface of the ocean, during which time the atmospheric response progressively increases as part of a coupled feedback between the ocean and atmosphere. The response continuously projects onto the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and the familiar tripole pattern in North Atlantic sea surface temperature, as referenced by Cjaza et al (2002), with a lag time of 2-4 years (Sciafe et al 2013). Thus is it is reasonable to conclude from the preponderance of evidence owed to a multitude of varied research efforts that changes in solar irradiance along the progression of the solar cycle trigger instant surface responses that subsequently progress through the subsurface, and then ultimately resurface through a process of meridional overturning. This reemergence fosters a delayed feedback (6 months) between the sea and air that can be self-sustaining. Member stormchaserchuck1 at Americanwx.com weather forum has put this theory into practice. His index consists of a measurement of May 1 - Sept 30 SSTs in the North Atlantic. It's correlated to following November-March NAO/AO (+6 month lag). The index is a composite of 2 areas in the

 

  North Atlantic (blue box - red box). Because the northern area has more volatility, the total dataset, SSTs and NAOwere normalized by multiplying the total historical absolute number of both, and dividing it by each other. 

When blue box is cold SSTs, a negative NAO is implied for Winter.

 When red box in warm SSTs, a negative NAO Winter. For comparison, and red box is 65%

 value of blue box anomaly (so -1 blue +0.65 red is same thing). Visa versa.

Thus far, through July 15, which is about 50% of the way through the identified May 1st- September 30th period, it is estimated that the index currently signals approximately a -0.40 for DJFM NAO predictor. Since the standard deviation is .50, there is it a 50% chance of having the DJFM NAO calculate between -0.90 and +.10.

The .40 mean would rival the 2012-2013 season and would be the most negative NAO season since 2009-2010. Unsurprisingly, both of these seasons occurred during the easterly phase of the QBO and coincided with the ascending portion of the solar cycle. Given the previously discussed westerly phase of the QBO that is ongoing in conjunction with the pending peak geomagnetic energy, it is expected that this formula will normalize over the course of the next two+ months. In the event that it does not, it should be interpreted as a nod towards the increased volatility within the polar domain relative to the classic east-based seasons that has been advertised. The fact that ample evidence has been provided for increased volatility during the second half of the DJFM winter season also implies that this may represent a feasible plausibility that will need to be evaluated between now and the onset of boreal winter

Presto:

30 Day change:

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think you're trying to be, but I think everyone would attest to the fact that you have some sort of underling assumption that winter will suck, which predisposes you to an inherent bias.

Well it’s also based on previous types of ninos. I did say I’m not opposed to near normal snowfall, but I’m not optimistic on AN snow. That’s different than Kevin claiming how every winter will suck. I’m not going by emotion. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Well it’s also based on previous types of ninos. I did say I’m not opposed to near normal snowfall, but I’m not optimistic on AN snow. That’s different than Kevin claiming how every winter will suck. I’m not going by emotion. 

True, that is how I feel. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

True, that is how I feel. 

If you could tell me that the GOA low will be just west enough or perhaps not as strong as some are anticipating so that if we do get a negative NAO, there’s a little bit of a cold source in Canada, I would definitely have a change in attitude.

 

We obviously do not need Canada to be an icebox, I think we all agree on that. But what I worry about  is that we have this split flow totally void of any money in the bank in Canada and raging STJ that basically combines up with any negative NAO ridging. 
 

if I would make a call, I would have BN snowfall, but I’m not anticipating a massive skunk in terms of snowfall. Especially the interior.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I am usually lethal with ENSO forecasting, but I will say that the unparalleled magnitude of this El Nino is really posing a challenge for me with respect to any forecast precision beyond the blanket "super-El Nino designation. I am someone who exhaustively parses data to come up with analogs to inform future intensity forecasts and it makes it difficult given that this one is in a class of one.