Tropical Storm Dolly

[RaleighNC]

I know my Dad is up there pulling for this one to hit Maralago.

[tiger_deF]

Rooting for this little guy (girl?) in the near future for sure. It’s almost certainly headed the way of the dodo but every now and then a storm is able to persist against a hostile environment.

Currently she’s producing just barely enough convection to survive

[cptcatz]

For what it's worth, the 12z CMC shows the remnants reorganizing in the Florida straits and then riding up the east coast of Florida as a formidable tropical storm. If the remnants can stay together, I don't think it's out of question that it can reform closer to the conus. We've seen open waves reorganize plenty of times.

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET: rapid WNW move in MDR with no strengthening followed by TS strength outside of MDR and change of move to NW well off the SE US at the end with interaction between Dolly and the TS hitting CHS making it more of a forecast challenge:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 27.08.2026

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 37.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.08.2026 0 13.6N 37.4W 1009 30
0000UTC 28.08.2026 12 14.0N 41.3W 1009 31
1200UTC 28.08.2026 24 14.5N 45.7W 1010 31
0000UTC 29.08.2026 36 15.3N 49.9W 1011 32
1200UTC 29.08.2026 48 16.3N 54.0W 1011 33
0000UTC 30.08.2026 60 17.3N 57.7W 1011 33
1200UTC 30.08.2026 72 18.7N 61.0W 1011 35
0000UTC 31.08.2026 84 19.7N 63.4W 1010 32
1200UTC 31.08.2026 96 20.4N 65.8W 1010 34
0000UTC 01.09.2026 108 21.0N 67.5W 1009 32
1200UTC 01.09.2026 120 21.5N 69.4W 1007 35
0000UTC 02.09.2026 132 21.8N 70.6W 1006 36
1200UTC 02.09.2026 144 22.8N 72.2W 1004 39
0000UTC 03.09.2026 156 23.7N 73.7W 997 42
1200UTC 03.09.2026 168 25.2N 75.3W 992 49

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Jolene, Jolene, Jolene, Jolene... In honor of Dolly

 

[vortex95]

On 8/26/2026 at 2:38 PM, jconsor said:

AI models are not infallible.  Sometimes they can be "blind" until the last minute, as appears to be the case with 96L.

https://x.com/yconsor/status/2092682443710923077

Knowing these shortcomings is of high value.  Some ppl are riding high on AI modeling as the best thing since sliced bread and they are a panacea.

[vortex95]

14 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I'm not quite sure how 96L hasn't been classified as at least a depression. It looks better formed than several TS's from earlier this season on the morning visible and one would think after how close it was on ASCAT yesterday and given marked improvement since, it would definitely qualify as a tropical cyclone. As for intensity, it is probably a TS given information yesterday had some TS wind barbs and it has only improved since. Me thinks this gets named at 11...

In last 20 years or so, NHC often skips the TD stage completely in the Atlantic.  I am not sure why.  However in the EPAC, they have no problem starting systems as TDs.  It's not like TCs work any different between these 2 basins, and 30 kt winds w/ a defined closed sfc circulation and deep convection doesn't care which basin it is in.  It is still the same thing!

Skipping the TD stage is a disservice IMHO since declaring a system that is indeed a TD gives a full fcst product suite and raises awareness sooner.  Is that not of high value?  Models have become very good for TC genesis now, and we have ASCAT and SAR winds to see better than ever what is actually there, so no reason to take advantage of this skill.

And yes, there is PTC to cover this, but that is only applicable when it is a fcst to be a TC within 72 hr affecting land.  Does not apply for Dolly since it is fcst to *not^ be a TC when impacts the Lesser Antilles.

[vortex95]

10 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

The aren't, they are calling for post-tropical aka open wave

Is post-tropical the same as a tropical wave. which is "open."  Does that mean all tropical waves are post-tropical when they first come off Africa?  You get into problems here w/ nomenclature.

[MJO812]

Going to get shredded ?

[vortex95]

33 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Going to get shredded ?

Yes, the mid and upper levels are a mess and chaotic,  You can see upper lows prevalent at 250 on the 18z ECMWF analysis attached and lots of dry air on the WV image attached.  Also on the IR image attached, how disheveled it is, lacking in any circular symmetry aloft and the stable stratocumulus W and NW of the system (seeing this in the MDR during the peak of the season?, that is rare).  In addition, how small and isolated Dolly is, w/ barely any other deep convection in the entire MDR!

When it's bad, it can be *really* bad (for TCs).

 

[cptcatz]

8 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Is post-tropical the same as a tropical wave. which is "open."  Does that mean all tropical waves are post-tropical when they first come off Africa?  You get into problems here w/ nomenclature.

No, a post tropical storm is a system that used to be a tropical storm but is no longer. Post means after, the opposite of pre. So a wave coming off of Africa is not a post tropical storm.

[Windspeed]

For what it's worth, the 12z CMC shows the remnants reorganizing in the Florida straits and then riding up the east coast of Florida as a formidable tropical storm. If the remnants can stay together, I don't think it's out of question that it can reform closer to the conus. We've seen open waves reorganize plenty of times.

FWIW, the GFS this morning redevelops Dolly's remnants in the GOM and gives Texas a hurricane.

[Utah346]

20 hours ago, RaleighNC said:

I know my Dad is up there pulling for this one to hit Maralago.

 

[cptcatz]

29 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

19 hours ago, cptcatz said:

For what it's worth, the 12z CMC shows the remnants reorganizing in the Florida straits and then riding up the east coast of Florida as a formidable tropical storm. If the remnants can stay together, I don't think it's out of question that it can reform closer to the conus. We've seen open waves reorganize plenty of times.

FWIW, the GFS this morning redevelops Dolly's remnants in the GOM and gives Texas a hurricane.

Yeah should be interesting if/when it opens back into a wave, will NHC immediately put an orange/red back onto the TWO.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

20 hours ago, cptcatz said:

For what it's worth, the 12z CMC shows the remnants reorganizing in the Florida straits and then riding up the east coast of Florida as a formidable tropical storm. If the remnants can stay together, I don't think it's out of question that it can reform closer to the conus. We've seen open waves reorganize plenty of times.

FWIW, the GFS this morning redevelops Dolly's remnants in the GOM and gives Texas a hurricane.

Thanks for posting this. After a careful look at the 6Z GFS, including the progged vorticity for various levels of the atmosphere, it appears to me like this may be a combo of Dolly’s remnants and additional vorticity similar to the vorticity that the last 4 full UKMET runs have shown off the SE coast developing into a sfc low (TC on last 3 runs).

[WxWatcher007]

Remnants Of Dolly Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042026
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 28 2026

During the past few hours, the center of Dolly passed just north of 
NOAA buoy 41041, which did not observe any westerly winds. 
Examination of high-resolution satellite imagery also does not 
readily indicate any westerly winds south of the center.  Based on 
this, Dolly has become an open tropical wave, with the initial and 
forecast positions being that of the vorticity maximum. The initial 
intensity remains 35 kt, with those winds occurring north of the 
vorticity center.

The system is moving 280/22 kt, and this motion should continue for 
the next 24 h.  After that time, a general westward to west- 
northwestward motion with a slight decrease in forward speed should 
take the remnants of Dolly near the Leeward Island Saturday night or 
Sunday, and near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by Sunday 
afternoon or Sunday night. A continued west-northwestward motion is 
expected after that, with the remnants moving through the Greater 
Antilles or the Bahamas during the early part of next week.

The system is currently in a hostile environment with significant 
southwesterly shear and dry air. These conditions should continue 
for at least the next 2-3 days, and the remnants should slowly 
weaken during this time. The official forecast shows 24 h of points 
where the maximum winds are at tropical-storm force and there is a 
well-defined vorticity center. After that, the winds are expected to 
decrease below 35 kt, and the system center is expected to become 
less well-defined. Some global models hint at the possibility that 
Dolly could regenerate in several days, but at this time there is 
poor agreement on where and when this might occur. Should conditions 
warrant, further information regarding the potential redevelopment 
of the remnants of Dolly will be provided in subsequent Tropical 
Weather Outlooks.

This is the last advisory on Dolly issued by the National Hurricane 
Center. Additional information on this system can be found in High 
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS 
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Heavy rains from the remnants of Dolly could affect the Leeward 
Islands late Saturday into Sunday with possible impacts in the 
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday.  This 
heavy rain may produce flash flooding within areas of higher terrain 
of the Leeward Islands.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/1500Z 15.0N  46.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  29/0000Z 15.6N  50.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  29/1200Z 16.4N  54.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

[WxWatcher007]

Former Dolly with a new burst of convection 

[MJO812]

Cmc is still consistent with a south Florida hit.

[GaWx]

I can’t post the maps because they’re too large for the space allowed here, but comparing today’s 12Z UKMET 120 hour map with the 168 hour map of the 12Z UK of 48 hours ago using Pivotal shows they’re very similar with regard to both with a somewhat healthy Dolly (1007 mb/well organized vs 999 mb on the run from 48 hours ago) recurving and the preliminary low back to being just a weak (1012ish) low that’s not designated a TC and headed toward NE FL.

[cptcatz]

I'm not convinced this is the end of Dolly. There's still a pretty clear center of rotation visible on satellite and it looks like it's gaining in latitude much faster than forecasted. If the circulation goes north of the islands, which it seems that it might, then I think game is on once it makes it closer to the Bahamas. The big factor will be whether the weak LLC stays intact, which it probably wouldn't if it went over the islands, whereas it could if it goes north of them...

[Typhoon Tip]

problem is dry air...