Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[Stormchaserchuck1]

They are easily defaulting to ENSO-climo like everyone is doing. 

We have yet to see a more than 4-day +PNA period since the El Nino developed in April. 

[LongRanger]

This is the most potential we've seen for a snowy winter in many years. That's enough to keep me interested.

How much snow would it take at the airports this winter to bring the 2011-2026 annual average back up to "normnal"? Lots.

[Bob Chill]

23 hours ago, CAPE said:

My recollection is a -AO is the strongest correlation to colder than avg temps for the greater DC area. A -AO during a Nino likely(at least historically) increases snow chances, probably more so than a Nina.

100%. It also correlates strongly to snowfalls in excess of 6". The AO runs in odd cycles. Seems like 10-13 year cycles or something close to that. Ive been suspecting the cycle is flipping the last 2 winters. It would go a long ways in helping us this winter if its predominantly negative. Makes a huge difference with ninos. Just because the nino is basinwide or east based doesn't automatically wreck us. Having a +AO will though lol. 

Based on everything I'm seeing, I'm probably more optimistic about this winter than the vast majority on here. Wont be a cold one like last year I dont think but a persistently suppressed storm track with friendly high latitudes will likely deliver some legit fun even if it melts quick lol. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Since 2012, May-Sept 60-90N SLP anomaly has flipped for the Winter almost every single time. We had a strong 90N negative anomaly this warm season. 5/5 months. I think it has something to do with the arctic ice min in 2012, but that's a strong -AO signal for the coming Winter, or at least high pressure 60-90N most of the time. 

[IronTy]

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Not sure if this Capital Weather link was already shared, but Boom or Bust seems to be the theme for the upcoming winter....

https://www.capitalweather.com/boom-or-bust-five-experts-reveal-their-dc-winter-snow-predictions/

Accuweather needs to bring JB back onboard.  And Matt Rogers can suck it.  

[mitchnick]

 Cfs2 replacement model snowfall prediction thanks to Prismshine Productions in the NE forum. I'll take it!

[aldie 22]

22 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

 Cfs2 replacement model snowfall prediction thanks to Prismshine Productions in the NE forum. I'll take it!

Yeah ill sign up for that 

[bncho]

41 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

 Cfs2 replacement model snowfall prediction thanks to Prismshine Productions in the NE forum. I'll take it!

that white speck in DCA:

[wxdude64]

6 hours ago, bncho said:

that white speck in DCA:

You meant AT DCA, right?

[mitchnick]

 

[SnowenOutThere]

16 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

 

Not sure how applicable this sample is considering it uses 26 different el nino winters. Besides, I'm always skeptical of anything posted to social media which puts the highest above average snowfall along the most populous stretches of the northeast. 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

12z Euro appears to go for a prolonged weakening of the polar vortex? Maybe this at least mutes any Torchmas?

 

[Terpeast]

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

12z Euro appears to go for a prolonged weakening of the polar vortex? Maybe this at least mutes any Torchmas?

 

Or if we’re lucky, another Dec 5th snowstorm

[Eskimo Joe]

9 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Or if we’re lucky, another Dec 5th snowstorm

Inject that into my veins