Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[WxWatcher007]

On 10/21/2026 at 8:21 AM, Terpeast said:

That's the best case scenario. The worst case? well... 

I'll be in Quebec during the holidays. Even if it torches in the east, it'll still be cold enough there for snow.

Don’t you dare jinx us up here in God’s Country lol

[psuhoffman]

15 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Head to Canaan valley this winter lol

 

14 hours ago, TSSN+ said:

If there is a storm on a weekend I just may. 

My IKON pass is good at snowshoe, kids love it there.  Might be there a lot of weekends this winter.  In 2022 I was at Snowshoe for that big storm they got in January, I think we had a few inches here before rain but it was like 30-40" there, hard to tell it was windy but it made that winter feel a lot better. 

[CAPE]

16 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Imo- it could be a signal of a potential strong -AO in Dec. That in itself, regardless of enso state, is the single best long range indicator of an above normal snow season. I'd have to dig in a hard drive of a computer in storage to find my spreadsheet... so that won't be happening lol but iirc, a December mean AO of -1.25 or lower indicates an 80% chance of above average snowfall for the season. 

My recollection is a -AO is the strongest correlation to colder than avg temps for the greater DC area. A -AO during a Nino likely(at least historically) increases snow chances, probably more so than a Nina.

[CAPE]

Way out there, but this looks Negative AO-ish

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Way out there, but this looks Negative AO-ish

Ya think lol

[Terpeast]

This is what I mean when I say goa low butting up against the west coast and zonal flow across the east. I think winter will look something like this

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

This is what I mean when I say goa low butting up against the west coast and zonal flow across the east. I think winter will look something like this

Euro seasonal has it a bit west allowing a decent trough to develop in the SE. The link below is for NDJ. It holds through the rest of the winter too if you scroll forward. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_z500?area=NHEM&base_time=202610010000&stats=ensm&valid_time=202611010000

[Terpeast]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Euro seasonal has it a bit west allowing a decent trough to develop in the SE. The link below is for NDJ. It holds through the rest of the winter too if you scroll forward. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_z500?area=NHEM&base_time=202610010000&stats=ensm&valid_time=202611010000

A bit west would have more ridging into AK which would help us with cold air

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

This is what I mean when I say goa low butting up against the west coast and zonal flow across the east. I think winter will look something like this

100!  That's my fear if we have a total fail...that's probably how.  

[stormy]

4 hours ago, CAPE said:

My recollection is a -AO is the strongest correlation to colder than avg temps for the greater DC area. A -AO during a Nino likely(at least historically) increases snow chances, probably more so than a Nina.

I agree 100%!!     IMO, the AO is more important than the NAO.

I have identified 9 analog winters since 1950 to 26/27.  For Augusta, 78% of strong El Nino winters have above average snowfall.

The below average snowfall similar Enso winters were #1 -  72/73 at +2.0 C. with an average +1.2 AO and -.50 NAO  and 91/92 at +2.3  with an average +1.10  AO and -.50 NAO. 

Slightly negative NAO and moderately positive AO is bad news for snow.

[WEATHER53]

The main thing is that Miller A’s will make their return and instead of 0-1 this season we will have 6-8 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

The main thing is that Miller A’s will make their return and instead of 0-1 this season we will have 6-8 

Yes. Perfect track Miller A rainstorms.

[CAPE]

37 minutes ago, stormy said:

I agree 100%!!     IMO, the AO is more important than the NAO.

I have identified 9 analog winters since 1950 to 26/27.  For Augusta, 78% of strong El Nino winters have above average snowfall.

The below average snowfall similar Enso winters were #1 -  72/73 at +2.0 C. with an average +1.2 AO and -.50 NAO  and 91/92 at +2.3  with an average +1.10  AO and -.50 NAO. 

Slightly negative NAO and moderately positive AO is bad news for snow.

More times than not, a -AO and a -NAO occur simultaneously. Probably more so in  Nino. -AO tends to bring the colder air southward instead of keeping it bottled up well north- which is obv important- but a NAO block tends to lock in cold HP in an ideal spot for coastal storms.