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Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread


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** PENNSYLVANIA TORNADO COUNT 2026 **
Pennsylvania is now up to 41 confirmed tornadoes for 2026! An EF2 tornado has been confirmed in eastern York County and an EF1 in western Lancaster County from the severe thunderstorms this past Thursday, August 20th. It has been quite the severe weather season, and we are not done yet, with strong storms expected throughout the weekend. The 41 tornadoes are the 3rd most recorded in the state, followed by 44 in 2021 and 59 in 1998.
To put it into more perspective, Pennsylvania has seen more tornadoes than Nebraska (37) and Texas (33), and we are not far behind Kansas (44) and Oklahoma (47). How do you feel that Pennsylvania is ranking up with some of the traditional 'Tornado Alley' states?
May be an image of tornado, map and text that says 'PA WEATHER PLUS CONFIRMED TORNADOES so FAR COVERIN COVERINGPENNSYLVANASWEATHER NG PENNSYLVANIA'S WEATHER JANUARY AUGUST 22, 2026 Erie Edinboro Meadville Warren 41 TORNADOES So FAR THIRD HIGHEST TORNADO COUNT Oil City Coudersport Hermitage Wellsboro St. Marys Clarion Towanda Montrose Renovo Butler Puna DuBois Clearfield Beaver wney Laporte Tunkhannock Williamsport Honesdale Scranton Indiana Pittsburgh State College Milford Sunbury Altoona Jobnstown Lewistown Huntingdon East Stroudsburg Greensburg Washington oci0 Uniontown Pottsville Defiance Somerset Easton Allentown Bedford Harrisburg Harri Lebanon Reading Chambersburg Gettysburg Doylestown York Lancaster Norristown Philadelphia phia West Chester'
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Per our new ChescoWx model some great weather ahead with below normal highs through Tuesday with highs ranging from the low to mid 70's through Tuesday and then upper 70's through next weekend. Comfortable lows in the 50's through Wednesday morning before low 60's through the weekend. Our only rain chances look to be Thursday into Thursday night.

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3 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:
** PENNSYLVANIA TORNADO COUNT 2026 **
Pennsylvania is now up to 41 confirmed tornadoes for 2026! An EF2 tornado has been confirmed in eastern York County and an EF1 in western Lancaster County from the severe thunderstorms this past Thursday, August 20th. It has been quite the severe weather season, and we are not done yet, with strong storms expected throughout the weekend. The 41 tornadoes are the 3rd most recorded in the state, followed by 44 in 2021 and 59 in 1998.
To put it into more perspective, Pennsylvania has seen more tornadoes than Nebraska (37) and Texas (33), and we are not far behind Kansas (44) and Oklahoma (47). How do you feel that Pennsylvania is ranking up with some of the traditional 'Tornado Alley' states?
May be an image of tornado, map and text that says 'PA WEATHER PLUS CONFIRMED TORNADOES so FAR COVERIN COVERINGPENNSYLVANASWEATHER NG PENNSYLVANIA'S WEATHER JANUARY AUGUST 22, 2026 Erie Edinboro Meadville Warren 41 TORNADOES So FAR THIRD HIGHEST TORNADO COUNT Oil City Coudersport Hermitage Wellsboro St. Marys Clarion Towanda Montrose Renovo Butler Puna DuBois Clearfield Beaver wney Laporte Tunkhannock Williamsport Honesdale Scranton Indiana Pittsburgh State College Milford Sunbury Altoona Jobnstown Lewistown Huntingdon East Stroudsburg Greensburg Washington oci0 Uniontown Pottsville Defiance Somerset Easton Allentown Bedford Harrisburg Harri Lebanon Reading Chambersburg Gettysburg Doylestown York Lancaster Norristown Philadelphia phia West Chester'

Thankfully in terms of ranking we don't rank with tornado alley in intensity. Anything over EF3 is usually pretty rare in most of the state and slightly less rare in the western half. Still very impressive. We might be able to beat 2021 but 1998 might be hard to beat unless the fall season is very active

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3 hours ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

Thankfully in terms of ranking we don't rank with tornado alley in intensity. Anything over EF3 is usually pretty rare in most of the state and slightly less rare in the western half. Still very impressive. We might be able to beat 2021 but 1998 might be hard to beat unless the fall season is very active

You right. And thankfully that most of thse wernt long tracked tornados through urban and city areas.

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7 hours ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

I'm pretty sure when I checked yesterday there wasn't a chance for showers or thunderstorms today yet there's a storm coming right for me lmao these forecasts are actual trash now

It was in the nws forecast discussion, and SPC had a good chunk of the area highlighted for marginal risk of severe thunderstorms today for the past several days and had all of pennsylvania included in the thunderstorm outlook, other than that, I never heard it mentioned either. I actually had two thunderstorms here today, about two hours apart. 

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3 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

My monthly total now stands at 13.28", which would already be good for my third wettest month ever, behind only August of 2018 and September of 2011.

That’s incredible. A foot or so more than me. 
 

Really nice weather for August. Cut the grass and did a bit of garden cleanup over lunch and didn’t even break a sweat.  
 

Meanwhile Texas is baking. 

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...Northeast...
   A broad mid-level trough will continue to shift eastward toward the
   Northeast on Thursday. A weak surface low will move across Quebec
   with a cold front extending southward into the Northeast and eastern
   Great Lakes. Moderate instability is forecast ahead of the front
   with broad ascent supporting storm development both along and ahead
   of the cold front. Multicell clusters capable of damaging winds, and
   perhaps isolated large hail, are expected. A more focused region of
   greater potential may exist from central Pennsylvania into eastern
   New York. The potential for cloud cover across the region casts some
   uncertainty and therefore, confidence was not high enough for a
   Slight Risk at this time
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Widespread low to mid 50's across the county this morning with the lowest the 51.2 at Warwick. Another beautiful day on tap today with highs per our ChescoWx Model in the mid 70's with the NWS seeing upper 70's. The NWS sees 80's starting tomorrow through the next week while ChescoWx keeps East Nantmeal just shy of 80’s both tomorrow and Thursday before falling back to the mid 70's both Friday and Saturday. Rain chances to increase by Thursday before we clear out on Friday.

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A second tornado was confirmed by NWS in Lancaster County from last weeks storms.

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
542 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026


...NWS Damage Survey for 08/20/2026 Tornado Event...


..Manor Township Tornado...

Rating:                 EF0
Estimated Peak Wind:    85 mph
Path Length /statute/:  0.49 miles
Path Width /maximum/:   125 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start Date:             08/20/2026
Start Time:             04:38 PM EDT
Start Location:         2 E Mountville / Lancaster County / PA
Start Lat/Lon:          40.0314 / -76.3877

End Date:               08/20/2026
End Time:               04:40 PM EDT
End Location:           2 NW Millersville / Lancaster County / PA
End Lat/Lon:            40.0312 / -76.3784

Survey Summary:
An EF-0 tornado developed over Broadstone Street causing significant
damage to trees and pulling gutters off of homes. The tornado
traveled east partially ripping a roof off of a townhouse as it
crossed Sutherland Road and uprooted additional trees in the
neighborhood. Finally it crossed South Centerville Road snapping
and uprooting numerous trees as it continued east before lifting
over a field.

We would like to thank Lancaster County Emergency Management and
students from Millersville University for their assistance in this
damage survey.

&&

EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into the
following categories:

EF0.....65 to 85 mph
EF1.....86 to 110 mph
EF2.....111 to 135 mph
EF3.....136 to 165 mph
EF4.....166 to 200 mph
EF5.....>200 mph

NOTE:
The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
change pending final review of the event and publication in
NWS Storm Data.


$$

Krantz/Bowen
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One more great day before we see the return of some showers and maybe a t-storm tomorrow. Our ChescoWx forecast keeps us in the mid to upper 70's for highs each day through Sunday before we warm into the mid to upper 80's by both Tuesday and Wednesday next week before we cool down again by the end of next week. Some valley spots could certainly see some 90 degree temps for a couple of days but any extended heat wave is unlikely.

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For those interested in the very early accuracy of the ChescoWx model forecasts vs. the NWS - so far with a couple complete days all model runs ran cooler than the NWS Forecast and the actual verified temperatures were cooler than the NWS Forecast with ChescoWx at least over a couple full days being closer to the actuals. But it is only a couple of days so we will keep tracking. The first column is the forecast run time with the green shaded being ChescoWx and the unshaded column the NWS forecast.

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