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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion


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On 8/23/2026 at 6:00 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

This was.an interesting read and brings two questions to my mind. First, what AI are you using and did you air gap it? Have you found it difficult to maintain? 

Second, have you found anything significant with respect to short term snowfall forecasting?

Hey Joe - I am using Claude which does not run locally so no air-gapped environment. Regarding snow I just started the model up 3 days ago so we will see when we get to winter. 

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Widespread low to mid 50's across the county this morning with the lowest the 51.2 at Warwick. Another beautiful day on tap today with highs per our ChescoWx Model in the mid 70's with the NWS seeing upper 70's. The NWS sees 80's starting tomorrow through the next week while ChescoWx keeps East Nantmeal just shy of 80’s both tomorrow and Thursday before falling back to the mid 70's both Friday and Saturday. Rain chances to increase by Thursday before we clear out on Friday.

image.thumb.png.a53d3f656cc12121a74a4923aa66bdcb.pngimage.thumb.png.7b19d0b95bfaa6818498517e505544f3.pngimage.thumb.png.b5f103c085c63a2a5d79bf772c9df7d8.png

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One more great day before we see the return of some showers and maybe a t-storm tomorrow. Our ChescoWx forecast keeps us in the mid to upper 70's for highs each day through Sunday before we warm into the mid to upper 80's by both Tuesday and Wednesday next week before we cool down again by the end of next week. Some valley spots could certainly see some 90 degree temps for a couple of days but any extended heat wave is unlikely.

image.thumb.png.9914bcf6b73e5ca1579fe9e97bd5601f.pngimage.thumb.png.993befabf6ac4156ef73c6077c4d9afd.png

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For those interested in the very early accuracy of the ChescoWx model forecasts vs. the NWS - so far with a couple complete days all model runs ran cooler than the NWS Forecast and the actual verified temperatures were cooler than the NWS Forecast with ChescoWx at least over a couple full days being closer to the actuals. But it is only a couple of days so we will keep tracking. The first column is the forecast run time with the green shaded being ChescoWx and the unshaded column the NWS forecast.

image.thumb.png.d147a98d6249e9ac04348e8ed6c61909.png

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Fox 29 in Philly posted the below graphic for Philadelphia at the PHL Airport regarding "heat wave" days. I have also posted the same analysis for Chester County since 2020. Of note 10 of the Chester County stations have had the same or less than the 7 heat waves at PHL this year over the entire 2020's!
May be an image of text that says 'HOW MANY HE WAVES? WEATHER FOX29 PHILADELPHIA AVERAGES 3-5PER PER YEAR AUTHORITY FC 2 30 2020-5 2021 -6 2022-5 5 2023-3 -3 2024-4 -4 2025-6 2026-7s so far'image.thumb.png.c62591c9fdcff79aebabd2cf12df31e7.png
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