May 2026

[uofmiami]

Gusted to 33mph in Syosset & 32mph in Muttontown so far.

[TJW014]

Free skin exfoliation promo at the beach. Peak gust of 47. Pretty significant uptick over the last hour

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Free skin exfoliation promo at the beach. Peak gust of 47. Pretty significant uptick over the last hour

I was just talking with the head jones beach life gaurd and we were saying what miserable experience it would be if we were open. I can’t imagine what it’s like down there right now. These events are so localized that it could be gusting over 50 right on beach.


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[lee59]

Wind has died down to a more reasonable level, short lived but intense wind event.

[Stormlover74]

Still pretty gusty here

[MANDA]

4 hours ago, FPizz said:

Good thread

https://x.com/i/status/2054544214952665366

 

 

Nice explanation from him but even he seems a bit uncertain about the transition.  I think they should have left the older models (at least the NAMS) in place and let them run operationally for another year alongside the RRFS.  He thinks the V2.0 will be an improvement but who knows when that will be available operationally.  

Will be interesting once the older models disappear to see how things shake out.  I'm personally still going to miss the NAMS in winter events since it handled low level thermals better than any other model, IMO.

[FPizz]

17 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Nice explanation from him but even he seems a bit uncertain about the transition.  I think they should have left the older models (at least the NAMS) in place and let them run operationally for another year alongside the RRFS.  He thinks the V2.0 will be an improvement but who knows when that will be available operationally.  

Will be interesting once the older models disappear to see how things shake out.  I'm personally still going to miss the NAMS in winter events since it handled low level thermals better than any other model, IMO.

I agree.  This past winter the new model i thought was horrendous 

[MANDA]

4 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I agree.  This past winter the new model i thought was horrendous 

Certainly not worthy of any awards....that's for sure.

[Stormlover74]

Tuesday looks like a scorcher

[donsutherland1]

Much of this week will see temperatures top out in the lower and middle 60s. Additional showers are possible on Thursday as a warm front moves northward. It will turn noticeably warmer during the weekend. Parts of the area could reach or exceed 80° on Saturday and especially Sunday. The warmth will likely continue through the middle of next week. Temperatures could rise into the upper 80s to perhaps near 90° on Tuesday and Wednesday. It will turn much cooler after midweek.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around May 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C. El Niño conditions are rapidly developing and will likely be in place in the next few weeks.

The SOI was -11.78 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.054 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.5° (0.3° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[nj08822]

Pretty impressive storm w heavy rain here in Eastern PA.