Winter 2026-2027 Speculation

[weathafella]

Flying under the radar is the 1997 autumn.  Early freeze, well above normal snows in November and December.  I remember an approximately 4” event here 11/14 which had a little staying power.  12/23 was a legit snow bomb and then about 5 days later another one that was rainy here but snowed up north I think.

[cleetussnow]

57 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Flying under the radar is the 1997 autumn.  Early freeze, well above normal snows in November and December.  I remember an approximately 4” event here 11/14 which had a little staying power.  12/23 was a legit snow bomb and then about 5 days later another one that was rainy here but snowed up north I think.

Which was a record Nino…signs of things to come.  Bad things.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Flying under the radar is the 1997 autumn.  Early freeze, well above normal snows in November and December.  I remember an approximately 4” event here 11/14 which had a little staying power.  12/23 was a legit snow bomb and then about 5 days later another one that was rainy here but snowed up north I think.

I would not expect that this year....1997 was low, ascending solar with a strong easterly QBO...very odd timing for a super-El Nino. This year fits the bill with W QBO and descending solar. Good luck with early blocking.

1997 is a very poor polar analog...our chances will come later this year.

[Ginx snewx]

22 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would not expect that this year....1997 was low, ascending solar with a strong easterly QBO...very odd timing for a super-El Nino. This year fits the bill with W QBO and descending solar. Good luck with early blocking.

1997 is a very poor polar analog...our chances will come later this year.

What are the correlation values for New England? Good luck with your forecast. Impressive EnSO discussions. New England is a wildcard because of the correlations drop off rapidly here. Not you but I wish people would understand a pos 2 month in Eastern Canada is still bitterly cold. To say there's not going to be cold air source this winter is incorrect. It is entirely possible our pattern of cold stormy intrusions continues all fall. 

[forkyfork]

warm and rainy

[stadiumwave]

CANSIPS OCTOBER UPDATE

DEC

JAN

 

FEB

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't love the look of the CANSIPS in February....that looks rather suppressed at peak climo.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Trend of the CANSIPS is as I expected...its strengthening that ridge and edging it further southward.

For instance, it's trying to do this for December.

But I think we end up with something like this:

[forkyfork]

yeah. warm and rainy

[forkyfork]

ray-nee

[George001]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Trend of the CANSIPS is as I expected...its strengthening that ridge and edging it further southward.

For instance, it's trying to do this for December.

But I think we end up with something like this:

Yeah we are going to lose December. The question is what happens after that.