3/16/26 Severe Weather Event Thread (Moderate -> Enhanced -> Slight) RESULT: Significant wind after dark

[Bob Chill]

5 hours ago, katabatic said:

This is my 4th winter here and wrt Wisp, this was their best season of the last 4. In fact, each year since the 22-23 dud, it's gotten better (not saying much, I know). Hopefully next year, we'll get a couple of bona fide coastals that bury us. Since they threw in the towel, the Wisp employees are in limbo right now and the ~25 J1 visa employees have all returned to South America. It's that weird intra-seasonal space between ski and golf season where it's tough to get anything done there. Looking outside, occasional snow showers continue and temp is still at 19. Not too shabby for St. Patty's Day 

 

When I lived in CO ski country I used to go through that same weird transition. The month of May is the single worst time to visit or live in ski country. We called it mud season. Everything soggy, rivers too high to fish, lakes still frozen, and too much leftover snowpack for back country hiking/biking. It really sucked.

After my first season I learned and would  take the whole month off and travel to see friends in the east. Then my summer job would start memorial day weekend. Deep creek is totally similar. I recommend traveling and partying heavily until the lake season kicks in hahaha

[diatae]

Flurries in La Plata! Snow town baby!

[CAPE]

12 hours ago, CAPE said:

411
NOUS41 KPHI 171906
PNSPHI
DEZ001>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-070-071-101>106-180715-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
306 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

...CONFIRMED EF-1 TORNADO IN CAROLINE COUNTY MARYLAND...
...EXTENSIVE STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE CONFIRMED IN QUEEN ANNE`S
COUNTY MARYLAND...

A survey team from the National Weather Service office in Mount
Holly, New Jersey has confirmed a tornado occurred last night in
Ridgely, Maryland (Caroline County). The preliminary result is an
an EF-1 with maximum winds to 100 mph.

The survey team also examined significant wind damage that occurred
last night between Sudlersville and Millington in Maryland (Queen
Anne`s County). The preliminary result is that extensive
straight-line winds occurred with speeds between 70-90 mph.

The survey team is currently in Kent County, Delaware.

A final assessment including all of the details are expected to
be completed and transmitted via a Public Information Statement
sometime this evening.

The storm survey information will also be available on our
website at http://www.weather.gov/phi

$$

Gorse

@AlexD1990

@JakkelWx

Updated-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
724 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

...CONFIRMED EF-1 TORNADO IN CAROLINE COUNTY MARYLAND... 
...EXTENSIVE STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE CONFIRMED IN QUEEN ANNE'S 
COUNTY MARYLAND...
...CONFIRMED EF-1 TORNADO IN KENT COUNTY DELAWARE...

The survey team from the National Weather Service office has
confirmed a tornado occurred Monday evening near Frederica,
Delaware (Kent County). The preliminary rating is an EF-1 with
estimated maximum wind speed of 100 mph. 

Additional extensive wind damage near Camden Delaware remains
under review. Preliminary estimate of maximum wind speed in this
area is 100 mph. A determination if this was straight line wind or
tornado damage will be coming later.

Previously the survey team had confirmed a tornado occurred Monday
evening in Ridgely, Maryland (Caroline County). The preliminary 
rating of this tornado is an EF-1 with maximum winds to 100 mph.

The survey team also examined significant wind damage that
occurred between Sudlersville and Millington in Maryland (Queen 
Anne's County). The preliminary result is that extensive straight-
line winds occurred with speeds between 70-90 mph.

A final assessment including all of the details are expected to 
be completed and transmitted via a Public Information Statement 
on Wednesday.

[Eskimo Joe]

On 3/17/2026 at 11:40 AM, SnowenOutThere said:

Love the SPC, but wondering how many of those reports occurred with the ending squall line which went through after they dropped percentages. I think they were completely justified in their 4/5 risk (and twitter/public mets retroactively throwing them under the bus suck) but its also fair to say that while justified the forecast failed. A failed forecast is not necessarily a bad one though. You have to warn for the high end in case it happens, hopefully people don't think next time its a boy cry wolf situation.

Unpopular opinion: SPC was correct with the initial forecast. They should have trimmed the tornado risk back but not the wind. We were an hour of partly sunny skies away from having that second line get enough juice to wreck a lot of stuff. 

I worked this event. We rarely get calls in western portions of Montgomery County where it's very rural. Our 911 calls were coming in just minutes after that line was racing through, which is an indication to us that bad things are inbound. We got lucky it trended south towards the Potomac River over a largely unpopulated section of the county. There are some terrible takes on social media from terminally online weather folks that a Day 2 Mod risk didn't turn into the next April 27, 2011.

[SnowenOutThere]

3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Unpopular opinion: SPC was correct with the initial forecast. They should have trimmed the tornado risk back but not the wind. We were an hour of partly sunny skies away from having that second line get enough juice to wreck a lot of stuff. 

I worked this event. We rarely get calls in western portions of Montgomery County where it's very rural. Our 911 calls were coming in just minutes after that linenwas racing through, which is an indication to us that bad things are inbound. We got lucky it trended down towards the Potomac River over a largely unpopulated section of the county. 

I think this is a fair take for nova and areas that got the final line. However, I’m in central VA and that second line had nothing to work with so for areas around where I was it really was a slight risk in practice. I do think the core of this issue might be the new system. When the SPC issues a 4/5 risk for wind I think it should call for something more than what occurred Monday. While it was a legitimate severe day for parts of the region, I wonder what happens if we get a storm that fulfills a slightly higher risk? Do we say it’s a 5/5 risk? That seems unfair when I think a true 5/5 risk should be a plains deracho with swaths of 90+ mph winds. These 4/5 and 5/5 events should feel rare and exceptional and are labeled as such to spur the public to action. 

[zwyts]

17 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

No one would ever fess up to what got M*tt in trouble. I think it was that god  awful off topic shit slinger children’s forum and your Jewish faith?

what’s the Philly story?

That's in the past as far as I'm concerned. i just wanna talk weather.  If they ever have OT again, I don't want to be a part of it and I won't be allowed anyway lol. 

Philly is for a number of reasons - but mostly family.  I have a ton of family there.  And I'm from there.  

[Eskimo Joe]

10 minutes ago, zwyts said:

That's in the past as far as I'm concerned. i just wanna talk weather.  If they ever have OT again, I don't want to be a part of it and I won't be allowed anyway lol. 

Philly is for a number of reasons - but mostly family.  I have a ton of family there.  And I'm from there.  

Hello fellow Philly Dilly. Grew up in Roxborough in the 90s.

[TSSN+]

1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I think this is a fair take for nova and areas that got the final line. However, I’m in central VA and that second line had nothing to work with so for areas around where I was it really was a slight risk in practice. I do think the core of this issue might be the new system. When the SPC issues a 4/5 risk for wind I think it should call for something more than what occurred Monday. While it was a legitimate severe day for parts of the region, I wonder what happens if we get a storm that fulfills a slightly higher risk? Do we say it’s a 5/5 risk? That seems unfair when I think a true 5/5 risk should be a plains deracho with swaths of 90+ mph winds. These 4/5 and 5/5 events should feel rare and exceptional and are labeled as such to spur the public to action. 

It was not a moderate risk by any definition. Just cause there was a lot of small wind reports does not a moderate make. You need 75+mph wind reports and ef2+ tornadoes. Again moderate risk are rare and what we had the other day happens regularly around here. If that was a moderate risk how was this day a slight risk down south? 

[TSSN+]

6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

It was not a moderate risk by any definition. Just cause there was a lot of small wind reports does not a moderate make. You need 75+mph wind reports and ef2 tornadoes. Again moderate risk are rare and what we had the other day happens regularly around here. If that was a moderate risk how was this day a slight risk down south? 

Again basically nothing here that shows a moderate risk. A couple tree limbs down ain’t no widespread outbreak. It was an enhanced day maybe DC ne to NJ that’s it. 
 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

47 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

It was not a moderate risk by any definition. Just cause there was a lot of small wind reports does not a moderate make. You need 75+mph wind reports and ef2+ tornadoes. Again moderate risk are rare and what we had the other day happens regularly around here. If that was a moderate risk how was this day a slight risk down south? 

IMO, that was under forecast by SPC along Dixie Alley. It's similar to how they under forecast the 2012 derecho. 

[ravensrule]

2 hours ago, zwyts said:

That's in the past as far as I'm concerned. i just wanna talk weather.  If they ever have OT again, I don't want to be a part of it and I won't be allowed anyway lol. 

Philly is for a number of reasons - but mostly family.  I have a ton of family there.  And I'm from there.  

Hopefully they don't have OT again, that was the real cesspool of humanity. Those so called human beings shouldn't be allowed to post anywhere. Good luck on your move and please keep posting in the Mid Atlantic weather section. 

[zwyts]

24 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Hopefully they don't have OT again, that was the real cesspool of humanity. Those so called human beings shouldn't be allowed to post anywhere. Good luck on your move and please keep posting in the Mid Atlantic weather section. 

Thanks.  I'll probably move this fall.  Maybe Sep/Oct.  

I'm not interested in resurrecting old battles.  I've moved on.  I just want to post about weather.