2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[WxWatcher007]

We're probably done in the basin for this season unless there's something rogue in the subtropics. Time to start working on the grade for my peak season forecast. 

[jconsor]

On 10/25/2026 at 6:05 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

We're probably done in the basin for this season unless there's something rogue in the subtropics. Time to start working on the grade for my peak season forecast. 

I disagree.  Think we'll see 1-2 more named storms in early November.  About a 30% chance of another hurricane.

Best chances in the central Atlantic southeast of Bermuda.  Also a chance off the SE US coast, though likely brief.

Smaller chances near/sw of the Azores and in the western/central Caribbean.

The "high over low" pattern encourages low level convergence and anomalously low shear in the subtropics.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 hours ago, jconsor said:

I disagree.  Think we'll see 1-2 more named storms in early November.  About a 30% chance of another hurricane.

Best chances in the central Atlantic southeast of Bermuda.  Also a chance off the SE US coast, though likely brief.

Smaller chances near/sw of the Azores and in the western/central Caribbean.

The "high over low" pattern encourages low level convergence and anomalously low shear in the subtropics.

The season is done. It's almost impossible to get a named storm in November during an el nino. We couldn't even get one in November in 2023, and that season had 20 storms.

2 named storms and another hurricane is wishful thinking, especially in a season that's been very quiet. Maybe in the Pacific basin, but not in the Atlantic.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

I disagree.  Think we'll see 1-2 more named storms in early November.  About a 30% chance of another hurricane.
Best chances in the central Atlantic southeast of Bermuda.  Also a chance off the SE US coast, though likely brief.
Smaller chances near/sw of the Azores and in the western/central Caribbean.
The "high over low" pattern encourages low level convergence and anomalously low shear in the subtropics.

Don’t forget water temps have skyrocketed in the MDR in the last couple months. At the very least it’s setting up for a big season next year.


.

[olafminesaw]

Throwback to Melissa's intense eye

[vortex95]

On 10/27/2026 at 9:10 AM, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The season is done. It's almost impossible to get a named storm in November during an el nino. We couldn't even get one in November in 2023, and that season had 20 storms.

2 named storms and another hurricane is wishful thinking, especially in a season that's been very quiet. Maybe in the Pacific basin, but not in the Atlantic.

In the 4 previous very strong El Nino years,

Last TS or HU formation date
1982 - 9/30
1991 - 10/31
1997 - 10/14
2015 - 11/8

So odds would suggest we are done for the season.  Nothing apparent on the models for the next week.
 

[TheDreamTraveler]

13 hours ago, vortex95 said:

In the 4 previous very strong El Nino years,

Last TS or HU formation date
1982 - 9/30
1991 - 10/31
1997 - 10/14
2015 - 11/8

So odds would suggest we are done for the season.  Nothing apparent on the models for the next week.
 

Yeah I'd be shocked if we see anything else form at this point. Isaias was basically our Joaquin of the season too. Very interesting season regardless all things considered. Tons of records broken in the opposite direction for once 

[jconsor]

This is quite an active look for Nov of a strong El Nino.

 

[GaWx]

On 10/28/2026 at 10:09 PM, vortex95 said:

In the 4 previous very strong El Nino years,

Last TS or HU formation date
1982 - 9/30
1991 - 10/31
1997 - 10/14
2015 - 11/8

So odds would suggest we are done for the season.  Nothing apparent on the models for the next week.
 

 

14 hours ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

Yeah I'd be shocked if we see anything else form at this point. Isaias was basically our Joaquin of the season too. Very interesting season regardless all things considered. Tons of records broken in the opposite direction for once 

 

9 hours ago, jconsor said:

This is quite an active look for Nov of a strong El Nino.

 

 Well, well, well, the 0Z UKMET at hour 96 suddenly has a (TS or STS) form off the FL E coast as it does have somewhat of a warm core per 850/700/500 mb temps being warmer near the center than surrounding areas and it has mid-70s dewpoints surrounding the center. It forms just off of SC portion of the FL E coast and then moves mainly NNE to Wilmington, NC:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 28.0N 79.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.11.2026 96 28.0N 79.6W 1007 44
1200UTC 03.11.2026 108 28.3N 78.9W 1004 43
0000UTC 04.11.2026 120 29.0N 78.3W 1003 36
1200UTC 04.11.2026 132 30.7N 79.2W 1001 33
0000UTC 05.11.2026 144 32.1N 78.9W 1001 31
1200UTC 05.11.2026 156 35.1N 77.8W 1001 35
0000UTC 06.11.2026 168 39.5N 76.3W 1000 32

[GaWx]

^The 12Z UKMET has no TC or even any surface low in this area.