2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[WxWatcher007]

We're probably done in the basin for this season unless there's something rogue in the subtropics. Time to start working on the grade for my peak season forecast. 

[jconsor]

On 10/25/2026 at 6:05 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

We're probably done in the basin for this season unless there's something rogue in the subtropics. Time to start working on the grade for my peak season forecast. 

I disagree.  Think we'll see 1-2 more named storms in early November.  About a 30% chance of another hurricane.

Best chances in the central Atlantic southeast of Bermuda.  Also a chance off the SE US coast, though likely brief.

Smaller chances near/sw of the Azores and in the western/central Caribbean.

The "high over low" pattern encourages low level convergence and anomalously low shear in the subtropics.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 hours ago, jconsor said:

I disagree.  Think we'll see 1-2 more named storms in early November.  About a 30% chance of another hurricane.

Best chances in the central Atlantic southeast of Bermuda.  Also a chance off the SE US coast, though likely brief.

Smaller chances near/sw of the Azores and in the western/central Caribbean.

The "high over low" pattern encourages low level convergence and anomalously low shear in the subtropics.

The season is done. It's almost impossible to get a named storm in November during an el nino. We couldn't even get one in November in 2023, and that season had 20 storms.

2 named storms and another hurricane is wishful thinking, especially in a season that's been very quiet. Maybe in the Pacific basin, but not in the Atlantic.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

I disagree.  Think we'll see 1-2 more named storms in early November.  About a 30% chance of another hurricane.
Best chances in the central Atlantic southeast of Bermuda.  Also a chance off the SE US coast, though likely brief.
Smaller chances near/sw of the Azores and in the western/central Caribbean.
The "high over low" pattern encourages low level convergence and anomalously low shear in the subtropics.

Don’t forget water temps have skyrocketed in the MDR in the last couple months. At the very least it’s setting up for a big season next year.


.

[olafminesaw]

Throwback to Melissa's intense eye

[vortex95]

On 10/27/2026 at 9:10 AM, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The season is done. It's almost impossible to get a named storm in November during an el nino. We couldn't even get one in November in 2023, and that season had 20 storms.

2 named storms and another hurricane is wishful thinking, especially in a season that's been very quiet. Maybe in the Pacific basin, but not in the Atlantic.

In the 4 previous very strong El Nino years,

Last TS or HU formation date
1982 - 9/30
1991 - 10/31
1997 - 10/14
2015 - 11/8

So odds would suggest we are done for the season.  Nothing apparent on the models for the next week.
 

[TheDreamTraveler]

13 hours ago, vortex95 said:

In the 4 previous very strong El Nino years,

Last TS or HU formation date
1982 - 9/30
1991 - 10/31
1997 - 10/14
2015 - 11/8

So odds would suggest we are done for the season.  Nothing apparent on the models for the next week.
 

Yeah I'd be shocked if we see anything else form at this point. Isaias was basically our Joaquin of the season too. Very interesting season regardless all things considered. Tons of records broken in the opposite direction for once 

[jconsor]

This is quite an active look for Nov of a strong El Nino.