2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[cptcatz]

What a season! It's September 19 and a new weak tropical depression near the Azores is getting all the hype. 

[Boston Bulldog]

Bursting convection over the center, I think we have Fay at 5pm. Regardless of final intensity, these systems in the subtropics can be quite well organized and aesthetic looking if they get their act together 

[yoda]

1 hour ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Bursting convection over the center, I think we have Fay at 5pm. Regardless of final intensity, these systems in the subtropics can be quite well organized and aesthetic looking if they get their act together 

Not yet 

Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
900 PM GMT Sat Sep 19 2026
 
A new burst of convection has formed over the depression, that
mostly covers the center of the system. However, the bulk of the
convection is still on the northern side of the cyclone at this
time, implying that some wind shear is still affecting it. The most 
recent TAFB Dvorak fix was T2.0/30 kt, which is the same as the 
previous cycle. Therefore, the initial intensity remains at 30 kt 
for this advisory. 
 
Tropical Depression Six is still moving slowly, but has started to 
show a bit more motion towards the north-northeast. The cyclone 
should move more northeastward for roughly the next 36 h as a 
trough to the north weakens a low- to mid-level ridge to the 
northeast. Following this, at around 48 h, the ridge should build 
back towards the west, which in turn will force the cyclone to move 
southwestward for the rest of the forecast period. The current NHC 
forecast track is very similar to the previous forecast track with 
small adjustments to the track and speed, and remains in good 
agreement with HCCA and GDMI.

The cyclone should move into a slightly more favorable environment, 
between two areas of intense shear, and so there a good chance for 
intensification to occur for the next day or so. After 36 h, the 
system should move into an area of higher shear as the previously 
mentioned trough moves closer. This should lead to a gradual 
weakening of the system. The depression is expected to become a 
post-tropical remnant low around 72 h, and then dissipate around 
120 h. There is still some uncertainty in the forecast of when the 
cyclone will become post-tropical and then dissipate, as both could 
possibly occur sooner than what is currently forecast. The new NHC 
intensity forecast is still in the middle of the guidance envelope, 
and is closely align with HCCA and just under GDMI for peak 
intensity. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/2100Z 32.9N  33.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 33.3N  33.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 33.8N  32.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 33.7N  32.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 32.9N  32.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  22/0600Z 31.7N  33.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  22/1800Z 30.5N  34.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  23/1800Z 28.6N  38.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Berg

[vortex95]

10 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It was almost like NHC was just hoping it would go away so they didn’t have to classify it 

As much as they would not admit, sometimes that is a factor.  Here is something similar.

Recall the system S of New England Jan 2023?  That was a hurricane, but they blew it off operationally.  Yes, a few months later they included it as a 60 kt STS, but not operationally declaring it when it was clear what it was?  So that suggests that if they can get away w/ not doing it operationally, and just let post-season analysis "deal w/ it," they will.  Another motivation could have been that a hurricane close to the East Coast "out of blue" in Jan?  The public and media would freak and perhaps they did not want to deal w/ all that, but again, we should not be summarily constrained by policy or social/political factors when it comes to operational meteorology and calling things for what they are.

And this ended up impacting marine Canada, so it was not a "fish storm." 

And put it this way, we've seen far worse looking systems declared/called a TC.  So where is the meteorological consistency here?

Loop here:
https://x.com/WxTca/status/1615532584016162822

Sfc and SST analysis 
https://x.com/burgwx/status/1615099242728628231
 

That is a clear eye and quite deep convection for Jan.  I got T4.5 on it (77 kt) using Dvorak.  Now granted, SSTs were 21-23 C, so that means less efficient mixing down of winds aloft, but still 65 kt is likely here.  Notice when it approached Sable Island crossing a very sharp SST gradient, it actually looked best!  The center passed just W of Sable island which recorded sustained winds of 49 kt.  That was over much cooler SSTs, so again, when it was farther SW over 21-23 C, 65 kt would be easy.

This is not armchair quarterbacking, nitpicking, or a borderline TC situation.  This system's nature was obvious and screaming at you, and the model fcsts handled its ET to T transition warm seclusion very well), so this was not a "surprise."

Like I have said, call wx phenomena for what they are in real-time.  The atmosphere doesn't care about human-imposed rules or what we think, it does what it does, and we all look at the same data, so by doing this, you prevent push back/calling out/criticism to yourself!  

And I see on this forum, ppl sometimes say, "I can't believe it hasn't been declared yet"  or "it obviously stronger (weaker) than that!"  That's not just random complaints/musings all the time, many times such statements and observations have merit or are true!

[vortex95]

Talk about threading the needle.  That anticyclonic cirrus shear plume is right on the doorstep of the core, and yet no shearing of the convection over the core.

One thing about seasons like this, the TCs are often small.  TD6 exemplifies this.  At first glance in vacuum, you look at the EIR image below of the Atlantic, and go, "where is it?!"  Areas of convection exists sig larger than TD6 here!

 

[vortex95]

I spoke too soon.  Strong anticyclonic shear is disrupting the core in the last few hr and the circulation getting elongated again.  I would be surprised if they upgrade it to a TS at 03z, unless they get a good ASCAT or SAR pass showing TS-force winds.

[yoda]

1 hour ago, vortex95 said:

I spoke too soon.  Strong anticyclonic shear is disrupting the core in the last few hr and the circulation getting elongated again.  I would be surprised if they upgrade it to a TS at 03z, unless they get a good ASCAT or SAR pass showing TS-force winds.

Got close... but the ASCAT denied the upgrade

Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
300 AM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026

The convective organization of the depression has increased 
somewhat since the last advisory, with multiple convective bands in 
the northern semicircle. This increase is reflected in the various 
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates now 
suggesting the cyclone has reached tropical storm strength. 
However, an ASCAT-C overpass showed maximum winds near 30 kt. Based 
mainly on that the initial intensity will remain 30 kt.  Cirrus 
cloud motion indicate that an upper-level cyclonic shear axis is 
located near or just south of the center, with very strong 
upper-level westerly flow over the southern part of the low-level 
circulation.

The initial motion is 020/4 kt.  The depression is in an area of 
weak steering currents between a low- to mid-level ridge to the 
east and a deep-layer mid-latitude trough to the northwest. During 
the next couple of days, the southern portion of this trough is 
expected to weaken, with a low- to mid-level ridge developing to 
the west and northwest of the tropical cyclone. This should result 
in the cyclone stopping its north-northeastward motion and turning 
toward the southwest. A general southwestward motion is then likely 
until the system dissipates. The track guidance has shifted a bit 
westward after 36 h, and the new forecast track is also nudged a 
bit west of the previous track.

The dynamical models are forecasting a small upper-level low to 
develop along the cyclonic shear axis near or south of the tropical 
depression during the next 12 h or so. This is likely create a less 
hostile shear environment around the depression that should allow 
some intensification. After 24 h, the models are in good agreement 
that strong upper-level northerly or northwesterly winds will move 
over the cyclone, creating strong shear and causing weakening. 
While the models forecast the shear to diminish after 48-60 h, the 
cyclone or its remnants will be in an area of dry air and 
subsidence that cause cause the convection to dissipate.  The new 
intensity forecast shows the depression becoming a tropical storm 
for a day or so, followed by weakening to a remnant low between 
60-72 h. Based on the dynamical models, the remnant low is forecast 
to weaken to a trough between 96-120 h.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/0300Z 33.3N  33.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 33.8N  33.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 34.0N  32.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  21/1200Z 33.6N  32.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  22/0000Z 32.7N  32.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  22/1200Z 31.6N  33.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  23/0000Z 30.4N  35.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/0000Z 29.0N  39.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

[NorthHillsWx]

Fay is born, now expected to peak at 50 kts. Still think there’s an outside chance this storm can approach hurricane intensity. 
 

Deep convection has been increasing near the center of the cyclone
and in curved bands on its north side over the past several hours.
The latest satellite intensity estimates have also increased and
range from 35 to 47 kt. Considering these data and the ASCAT pass
from last night, the initial wind speed is nudged up to 40 kt. This
makes the system Tropical Storm Fay. The storm is quite compact,
with its tropical-storm-force winds estimated to extent only about
40 n mi from the center and the associated convection extends about
100-150 n mi across.
 
The combination of relatively moist air and baroclinic enhancements
from an approaching mid- to upper-level trough should cause Fay to
gain some more strength during the next 12 to 24 hours. However, the
trough is expected to lift out on Monday, and an increase in shear
and intrusions of dry air should end the opportunity for
strengthening and cause weakening by that time. Fay will likely
become a remnant low on Tuesday and dissipate by the end of the week
as it is expected to remain in unfavorable environmental conditions.
The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one,
and lies near the high end of the guidance in the short term given
the improvement in the storm's organization and expected baroclinic
support.
 
Fay is drifting to the north-northeast, with the latest initial
motion estimated to be 020/4 kt. This general motion should continue
for about 24 hours. However, a low- to mid-level ridge is
anticipated to build to the north of the storm on Monday, and that
should cause Fay to turn southwestward and gradually accelerate in
that direction during the early and middle portions of the week. The
NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and near a blend 
of the HCCA, GDMI, and TVCN aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/0900Z 33.7N  33.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  20/1800Z 34.1N  32.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  21/0600Z 34.0N  32.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  21/1800Z 33.3N  32.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  22/0600Z 32.0N  33.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  22/1800Z 31.0N  34.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/0600Z 30.1N  36.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/0600Z 28.9N  40.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

[Windspeed]

Fay is perfectly located in a bubble of favorablility surrounded by chaos. If it's going to make a run at hurricane intensity, it needs to do it fast. It's going to get decapitated on Monday. How much strengthening it can do by tonight remains to be seen, but convection continues to blossom, and the small vortex looks nice and stacked with the low-level and mid-level circulations for now. Baroclinic enhancement combined with warm SSTs and a cold-pool aloft would support a short period of rapid intensification if encroaching shear and dry air can hold off until Monday morning. The limited potential is there to end the hurricane drought, but Fay needs to do its thing pretty much immediately. Being in the middle of nowhere without recon to sample and only ASCAT means we will literally need to see an eye form most likely to increase the odds of an upgrade. Being such a tiny vortex, remote sensing techniques might just as well miss / fail to detect any short-lived wind intensity estimate around its tiny core to support a Category 1.



EDIT: I flirted with making a thread, but Fay is no threat to land and will dissipate within a few days. Other than the meteorological significance for the 2026 season, not much else discussion-wise would matter. We may as well just leave Fay's discussion in the main thread here for that purpose alone.

[NorthHillsWx]

5 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Fay is perfectly located in a bubble of favorablility surrounded by chaos. If it's going to make a run at hurricane intensity, it needs to do it fast. It's going to get decapitated on Monday. How much strengthening it can do by tonight remains to be seen, but convection continues to blossom, and the small vortex looks nice and stacked with the low-level and mid-level circulations for now. Baroclinic enhancement combined with warm SSTs and a cold-pool aloft would support a short period of rapid intensification if encroaching shear and dry air can hold off until Monday morning. The limited potential is there to end the hurricane drought, but Fay needs to do its thing pretty much immediately. Being in the middle of nowhere without recon to sample and only ASCAT means we will literally need to see an eye form most likely to increase the odds of an upgrade. Being such a tiny vortex, remote sensing techniques might just as well miss / fail to detect any short-lived wind intensity estimate around its tiny core to support a Category 1.


 

These storms tend to surprise you when they form under the conditions highlighted in your post. Would not be the first time a system south of the azores was dismissed only to pop an eye and surprise everyone. Agreed on the upgrade here, would almost have to acquire the eye for an upgrade as it is going to be extremely challenging to get a well timed ASCAT this afternoon when it peaks 

[NorthHillsWx]

Looking at satellite trends this is easily our best chance to break the hurricane drought of 2026

[WxWatcher007]

Thought about a thread too but will keep discussion here. I think a mod could always move these posts to a thread for posterity if Fay pulls off something crazy. It's a very narrow window but as y'all stated it's in one of where it can take off. That'd obviously be fantastic for my peak season forecast.  

 

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
300 PM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026
 
Deep convection continues to build near the center of Fay over the
last several hours. The current objective intensity estimates from
UW-CIMSS are in the range of 39-52 kt, and the most recent TAFB
Dvorak fix was a T3.0/45 kt. In addition, there was an ASCAT pass
that showed a peak wind vector of 43 kt. Given the uncertainties 
due to undersampling, the initial intensity for the storm has been 
raised to 50 kt. The cyclone continues to remain very compact with 
its tropical-storm-force winds estimated to extend out to about 40 
n mi.

Both a relatively moist environment and positive interactions 
with an approaching mid- to upper-level trough should allow Fay to 
further intensify for the next 12 to 24 hours. After the trough 
lifts on Monday, the increase in wind shear and dry air should lead 
to a gradual weakening of the cyclone. The current NHC forecast 
calls for Fay to become a post-tropical remnant low by Tuesday and 
then dissipate by the end of the week. The official intensity 
forecast is a little higher than the model guidance in the short 
term to account for the storm's structure being more improved and 
the expected baroclinic support from the trough.  This small system 
could approach hurricane strength later today or tonight. 

Fay is slowly moving off to the northeast, with the initial motion 
estimated around 010/5 kt. This general motion should continue for 
the rest of the day. However, a low- to mid-level ridge is expected 
to build to the north of the storm by Monday, which will cause Fay 
to turn southwestward and gradually accelerate in that direction 
over the course of the forecast period. The current NHC track 
forecast is similiar to the previous track forecast with a few 
minor adjustments and remains in good agreement with HCCA and 
GDMI. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/1500Z 34.1N  33.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 34.3N  32.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 33.9N  32.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 32.9N  32.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 31.7N  34.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  23/0000Z 30.6N  35.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/1200Z 29.8N  37.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/1200Z 28.8N  41.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Pasch

 

[WxWatcher007]

I had to do a double take to make sure I had the right storm. 

Clearly making a run now. Another deep burst may be enough to get over the top.

[NorthHillsWx]

29 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I had to do a double take to make sure I had the right storm. 

Clearly making a run now. Another deep burst may be enough to get over the top.

I think our hurricane-less streak is ending at 5 pm 

[NorthHillsWx]

Last few frames of satellite look like an eye feature is forming. Very likely close to hurricane strength at the moment and still time to strengthen 

[MANDA]

12 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Last few frames of satellite look like an eye feature is forming. Very likely close to hurricane strength at the moment and still time to strengthen 

Agreed.  This is very close.  Amazing we've had to wait until 9/21 and then have it happen out of the deep tropics at 34N and 33W. Pretty fitting for this season.  Regardless the hurricane free streak should break with Fay.

[WxWatcher007]