2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[ineedsnow]

11/4/2

[GaWx]

Watch the NE Gulf and vicinity for a possible TS next week per some model runs.

[GaWx]

 The Gulf continues to have a low to moderate possibility for TCG next week per model consensus, including EPS/GEFS. This possibility has also been hinted at by the last few Euro Weekly runs for precip next week:

Yesterday’s EW for 6/1-7 precip:

[WxWatcher007]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The Gulf continues to have a low to moderate possibility for TCG next week per model consensus, including EPS/GEFS. This possibility has also been hinted at by the last few Euro Weekly runs for precip next week:

Yesterday’s EW for 6/1-7 precip:

Almost time for me to end my tropical hibernation lol.

At the very least the SE should get come much needed rain in the coming weeks. 

The operational GFS is doing its usual nonsense but the ensemble signal on the GEFS/EPS should raise an eyebrow. This is a good early season test for AI models like the GDM on whether it can accurately sniff out these marginal early season signals/false alarms. 

[GaWx]

On 5/27/2026 at 12:28 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

Almost time for me to end my tropical hibernation lol.

At the very least the SE should get come much needed rain in the coming weeks. 

The operational GFS is doing its usual nonsense but the ensemble signal on the GEFS/EPS should raise an eyebrow. This is a good early season test for AI models like the GDM on whether it can accurately sniff out these marginal early season signals/false alarms. 

 The op GFS stopped its fake early June typical nonsense. However, the EPS runs (along with GEFS) are now hinting at a modest increase in TCG potential in the Gulf in mid June after the MJO has been in phase 8 for awhile per EPS/MJO fwiw. The non bc-GEFS stays in phase 7 though. Per Joe Bastardi, phase 8 is a bullish phase for Gulf TCG in June.

[WxWatcher007]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The op GFS stopped its fake early June typical nonsense. However, the EPS runs (along with GEFS) are now hinting at a modest increase in TCG potential in the Gulf in mid June after the MJO has been in phase 8 for awhile per EPS/MJO fwiw. The non bc-GEFS stays in phase 7 though. Per Joe Bastardi, phase 8 is a bullish phase for Gulf TCG in June.

I posted a few days ago elsewhere that I thought the window would open around mid-June. We certainly do see models rushing the favorable window sometimes, especially early in the season. Hard to believe we’re almost near the official start of the season. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Current SSTA.. Atlantic tripole, which is a few NS less per year, on average. East-based Nino is also for a weaker season than central or west based. The one going for the season is continued -PDO

[WxWatcher007]

That is a really really rough look for the Atlantic and MDR especially. Stability/subsidence is going to be a massive issue in the tropical Atlantic this year. 

[GaWx]

16 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That is a really really rough look for the Atlantic and MDR especially. Stability/subsidence is going to be a massive issue in the tropical Atlantic this year. 

Levi Cowan gives great updates. Here’s the 1st:

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/2060836481128874201
 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

That is a really really rough look for the Atlantic and MDR especially. Stability/subsidence is going to be a massive issue in the tropical Atlantic this year. 

I would basically completely write off the mdr this season. Maybe something like 72 with potential for stronger systems closer the CONUS

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_Atlantic_hurricane_season#/media/File%3A1972_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png


.

[WxWatcher007]

30 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I would basically completely write off the mdr this season. Maybe something like 72 with potential for stronger systems closer the CONUS

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_Atlantic_hurricane_season#/media/File%3A1972_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png


.

Yeah, if there are breaks in shear in the homebrew region (a big if), homebrew is likely the best chance at tropical genesis. 

[GaWx]

 It only takes one to possibly be a bad year and unfortunately even some strong+ El Niño seasons (where we’re likely headed) have had bad hits on the CONUS. Keep in mind that just a TS hit or even just a TD can cause devastating freshwater floods if slow moving.

 I just looked at the 13 strong+ El Niño seasons.

High impact storms in Conus during strong+ Nino (per RONI for 1950+)(2023 excluded since RONI peak only +1.49; so I didn’t count Idalia): I found 12

July 1997: H Danny (extreme rains Mobile area)

August 1991: H Bob (NC OB to E NE) though Nino not strong til later

June 1972: H Agnes in FL due to tornadoes and in PA as TS due to extreme rains though Nino not strong til later

Sept 1965: MH Betsy (one of New Orleans’ worst)

June 1957: MH Audrey (near TX/LA border) although Nino not strong til later

June 1902: TS storm #2 flooding rains TX although Nino not strong til later

July 1896: H storm #1 Pensacola though Nino not strong til later

Sept 1896: MH storm #4 NW FL and major damage well up into E US although not strong Nino til later

August 1888: MH/H storm #3 S FL/New Orleans although Nino not strong til later

Oct 1888: H storm #7 NW FL with TS winds up E coast to NE

Sept 1877: H storm #2 entire US Gulf coast

Oct 1877: MH storm #4 NW FL with TS/ET wind/rain damage well up E US
——————

- Per best tracks, all TCGs of these 12 high impact storms were W of 50W with most W of 70W.

-Only 5 of these 12 high impact Conus storms hit when Nino was already strong. So, early season could be the riskiest portion, which is pretty intuitive. Then again, MH Betsy (1965) and MH (storm #4) in 1877 hit when Nino already very strong. So, these are just good guidelines since nothing’s set in stone.

-These 12 hit during 9 of the 13 seasons that were strong+ Nino seasons. So, only 2015, 1987, 1982, and 1930 of these 13 had no Conus high impact storm. So, whereas there’s legit hope the Conus will be largely unscathed with the upcoming very strong Nino, I unfortunately wouldn’t bet against one ruining things somewhere even if isn’t a MH as was the case 7 of the 12 times.

 Despite the above, the good news is that there’s a very good chance for a quieter than average season overall for the Conus. Thus, the chance of a multiple storm high impact year like 2024, 2020, 2018, 2017, 2008, 2005, 2004, 1999, 1998, 1996, and 1985 among others is lower than average despite 2 storms with high impact hits in 1896, 1888, and 1877.