2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[ineedsnow]

11/4/2

[GaWx]

Watch the NE Gulf and vicinity for a possible TS next week per some model runs.

[GaWx]

 The Gulf continues to have a low to moderate possibility for TCG next week per model consensus, including EPS/GEFS. This possibility has also been hinted at by the last few Euro Weekly runs for precip next week:

Yesterday’s EW for 6/1-7 precip:

[WxWatcher007]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The Gulf continues to have a low to moderate possibility for TCG next week per model consensus, including EPS/GEFS. This possibility has also been hinted at by the last few Euro Weekly runs for precip next week:

Yesterday’s EW for 6/1-7 precip:

Almost time for me to end my tropical hibernation lol.

At the very least the SE should get come much needed rain in the coming weeks. 

The operational GFS is doing its usual nonsense but the ensemble signal on the GEFS/EPS should raise an eyebrow. This is a good early season test for AI models like the GDM on whether it can accurately sniff out these marginal early season signals/false alarms. 

[GaWx]

On 5/27/2026 at 12:28 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

Almost time for me to end my tropical hibernation lol.

At the very least the SE should get come much needed rain in the coming weeks. 

The operational GFS is doing its usual nonsense but the ensemble signal on the GEFS/EPS should raise an eyebrow. This is a good early season test for AI models like the GDM on whether it can accurately sniff out these marginal early season signals/false alarms. 

 The op GFS stopped its fake early June typical nonsense. However, the EPS runs (along with GEFS) are now hinting at a modest increase in TCG potential in the Gulf in mid June after the MJO has been in phase 8 for awhile per EPS/MJO fwiw. The non bc-GEFS stays in phase 7 though. Per Joe Bastardi, phase 8 is a bullish phase for Gulf TCG in June.