Spring 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread

[GBOVolz]

Got a picture of the mountains this afternoon in the Hall of Fame area of downtown.




Then I asked ChatGPT to remove the clouds.




.

[John1122]

I had no idea it was supposed to snow tonight, but we just had a snow shower and now I see the forecast says it will snow some in the morning. 

[GBOVolz]

I had no idea it was supposed to snow tonight, but we just had a snow shower and now I see the forecast says it will snow some in the morning. 

MRX had a 20% mix for my area


.

[Carvers Gap]

Both the 12z and 18z GFS have another system in the d8-9 range.  This is the time of year(shoulder season) when that model can score a coup just like it did a couple of days ago.  Not saying it is the gospel, but I think the end of the month is a time frame to be watched.  That was a pretty stout run.  The 12z Euro has the amplification w/out the storm.

[John1122]

Snow was hanging tough yesterday evening above 2800 feet or so. 

 

[nrgjeff]

Mountains were pretty! We got a few runs up at Sugar. After hitting 80 in Chatty last week, driving up and seeing snow before reaching the Tri Cities was a trip. Great time with family spring break.

So looks like the AC will be humming this weekend. Then back to slightly below normal temps next week (except midweek). Should even get cool and cozy nights and mornings a few days next week. WNW flow in early spring is a wild ride!

Appears that the last few days of March will usher in a warm early April. Mid Atlantic ridge may not be centered over the Valley. See if it'll let in some April showers. 

[jaxjagman]

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
512 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

...NWS Damage Survey for 03/15/2026 Tornado Event - Update #4...

.Update...Date/time correction.

.Overview...Middle Tennessee was impacted by a strong storm
system that brought widespread strong to severe thunderstorms during the
evening and overnight hours of March 15, 2026. Storms produced
damaging straight-line winds, isolated large hail, and three
tornadoes. Strong non-thunderstorm wind gusts also occurred
during that afternoon. A sharp cold front led to a drastic drop in
temperatures the morning of March 16 which also brought
accumulating snowfall to the Cumberland Plateau.

..Ft. Campbell EF0...

Rating:                 EF0
Estimated Peak Wind:    75 mph
Path Length /statute/:  5.05 miles
Path Width /maximum/:   200 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start Date:             03/15/2026
Start Time:             09:35 PM CDT
Start Location:         4 SSE Fort Campbell North / Montgomery
County / KY
Start Lat/Lon:          36.5999 / -87.4486

End Date:               03/15/2026
End Time:               09:40 PM CDT
End Location:           3 ESE Oak Grove / Montgomery County / KY
End Lat/Lon:            36.6407 / -87.378

Survey Summary:
A weak tornado impacted portions of  Clarksville. The tornado
began in a neighborhood on Fort Campbell. Damage consisted of
shingles off the roofs as well as some small tree limbs snapped.
The tornado continued east toward Highway 41, where an overhang
structure was blown down at a car wash. The tornado then moved
northeast through additional neighborhoods and across Outlaw
Airfield. Damage in the neighborhoods included rotten trees
downed, tree branches snapped, downed fences, shingles blown off
roofs, and occasional vinyl siding and metal metal fascia. The
tornado crossed Outlaw Field and uprooted a few trees on a farm
just northeast of the airfield. The tornado then continued
northeast into a large residential neighborhood causing
additional minor structural and roof damage to several homes and
snapping small tree limbs. The tornado dissipated somewhere near
the TN/KY state line in an open field south of Interstate 24 as
no additional damage was found north of Allen Rd.

..Mt. Pleasant/Columbia EF1...

Rating:                 EF1
Estimated Peak Wind:    90 mph
Path Length /statute/:  16.53 miles
Path Width /maximum/:   500 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start Date:             03/15/2026
Start Time:             10:06 PM CDT
Start Location:         1 NNE Mount Pleasant / Maury County / TN
Start Lat/Lon:          35.5591 / -87.1848

End Date:               03/15/2026
End Time:               10:25 PM CDT
End Location:           3 SSW Spring Hill / Maury County / TN
End Lat/Lon:            35.6966 / -86.9494

Survey Summary:
The tornado began along Highway 43 in Mount Pleasant. Many trees
were uprooted or had broken limbs along the highway and
interstate. A few homes and barns had metal roofing blown off.The
tornado continued northeast into Columbia, impacting
neighborhoods and Columbia State Community College. Tree damage
was noted frequently. Structural damage to homes was also noted,
mainly to vinyl siding, shingles, and metal fascia. There was one
building on Columbia State Community College that sustained roof
damage, as well as fencing on the ball fields. Next in the damage
path was an industrial area along the Duck River. Many trees were
uprooted, snapped, or sustained many broken branches. Several
buildings lost metal roofing, and one larger metal building
system had a portion of the south facing wall caved in.The
tornado then moved back into residential areas, causing
occasional trees down or branches broken, shingle damage, and
damage to vinyl siding. The tornado ended along Green Mills Road
in northern Maury County, just prior to reaching Spring Hill.

.Lexington/Bonnertown EF1...

Rating:                 EF1
Estimated Peak Wind:    105 mph
Path Length /statute/:  14.57 miles
Path Width /maximum/:   400 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start Date:             03/15/2026
Start Time:             10:48 PM CDT
Start Location:         1 W Lexington / Lauderdale County / AL
Start Lat/Lon:          34.9671 / -87.3831

End Date:               03/15/2026
End Time:               11:04 PM CDT
End Location:           1 E Minor Hill / Giles County / TN
End Lat/Lon:            35.0368 / -87.1486

Survey Summary:
A storm survey team determined that a tornado touched down in an
open field west of Earnest Street and south of Highway 4 in
Lexington. As it approached Earnest Street, it caused an open
outdoor structure propped up on cinder blocks to slide to the
north as well as snapped 4x4s and uprooted trees. The tornado
tracked northeast toward Lexington City Hall and caused minor
roof damage to five structures. Continuing northeast, the tornado
uprooted numerous trees along Highway 64 before crossing highway
59. Along the way, multiple trees were snapped, homes had siding
damage, several small open structures collapsed, and a garage
door was blown in. It continued snapping and uprooting trees as
it approached the state line.The tornado crossed the
Tennessee/Alabama state line and moved northeast, continuing for
10 more miles in Tennessee. In Bonnertown, many residences were
impacted, with several homes damaged. A few manufactured homes
were moved off their piers, and a couple mobile homes were lofted
or slid, remaining in tact. Other structural damage included
missing awnings, removed shingles, carports thrown, and trees
falling onto the structures. Several farm outbuildings were
damaged. Numerous trees were snapped or uprooted. Beyond
Bonnertown, the tornado continued east along Appleton Road,
downing trees and destroying a chicken farm. As the tornado
crossed into Giles County, damage was mostly trees downed or
uprooted, and branches snapped. A few structures were impacted in
Giles County south to southwest of Minor Hill due to trees
falling. A few metal farm outbuildings were also collapsed. The
tornado ended quickly south-southeast of Minor Hill.