Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread

[Voyager]

Not sure what happened, but CTP made a major correction overnight.

Maybe mahantango's exorcism gif did the trick...

Wednesday Night

Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday

A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Thursday Night

Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Friday

Showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 56. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Friday Night

Showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 46. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday

A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 61. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

[mahantango#1]

34 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Not sure what happened, but CTP made a major correction overnight.

Maybe mahantango's exorcism gif did the trick...

Wednesday Night

Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday

A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Thursday Night

Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Friday

Showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 56. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Friday Night

Showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 46. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday

A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 61. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Now an exorcism should be done to correct the Tamaqua split.

[pawatch]

25  degrees this morning. Slight frost 

[Voyager]

23 here. My tulips are toast. Too many frosty mornings since they first popped out of the ground.

[mahantango#1]

6 minutes ago, Voyager said:

23 here. My tulips are toast. Too many frosty mornings since they first popped out of the ground.

25 was my low.

[Voyager]

If this is true, then I hope they build a few data centers around Tamaqua.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2521256-ai-data-centres-can-warm-surrounding-areas-by-up-to-9-1c/

[canderson]

Gorgeous day. 63 and felt 75 in the sun. My garden is exploding with tulips, vinca, hynceth and other things. And weeds galore lol 

[Yardstickgozinya]

 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Lows of 42 and 30 last night and Saturday night, respectively.  Might be a good week to throw down some grass seed. 

[canderson]

Besides Wednesday every day the next week looks at least 10 degrees above normal.  

Who needs spring anyway?

[Itstrainingtime]

10 minutes ago, canderson said:

Besides Wednesday every day the next week looks at least 10 degrees above normal.  

Who needs spring anyway?

I've had 13 days this month with temps above 60 degrees. 7 of them were 70 or higher. Tomorrow will make it 14 days (45% of the month) above 60, 8 days (26%) higher than 70, and quite possibly my 4th day in the 80s. I don't recall another March like this one in my entire life. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

[canderson]

2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I've had 13 days this month with temps above 60 degrees. 7 of them were 70 or higher. Tomorrow will make it 14 days (45% of the month) above 60, 8 days (26%) higher than 70, and quite possibly my 4th day in the 80s. I don't recall another March like this one in my entire life. 

Agreed. Very warm, very stormy and very meh. 

[Voyager]

Currently 69 in Tamaqua. Much warmer than what was forecast for today. 

[Jns2183]

I've had 13 days this month with temps above 60 degrees. 7 of them were 70 or higher. Tomorrow will make it 14 days (45% of the month) above 60, 8 days (26%) higher than 70, and quite possibly my 4th day in the 80s. I don't recall another March like this one in my entire life. 

The record for >=70 is 11 in 1945 and 9 in 1946

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

[canderson]

Just hit me we probably don’t get below freezing again until late next October or November. Ugh. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

Wednesday is worth keeping an eye on.  

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

[Yardstickgozinya]

Why wait until Wednesday. Later today and tonight looks like it's worth keeping an eye on for at least some  thunderstorms in the area. 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[Yardstickgozinya]

I edited this post to reflect the most recently updated forecast discussion and conserve space. Nws originally stated that the chance for severe thunderstorms had increased through most of central Pennsylvania today. However there latest discussion is much more in line with the Spc convective forecast. 

 Hopefully later tonight brings a couple rumbles of thunder, along with some more improvement in the rainfall deficit for many places throughout the area.

920
FXUS61 KCTP 310824
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
424 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
*Minimal changes since the last discussion

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms through the
end of the week. Severe thunderstorms possible today, mainly
across the northwest.

2) Very warm temperatures continue through the weekend, although
a backdoor cold front will likely bring cooler temps across
eastern zones Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms
through the end of the week. Severe thunderstorms possible
today, mainly across the northwest.

As of 0330 AM Tue, central PA is mainly dry with earlier batch
of showers and thundershowers moving out of Sullivan Co. Looking
upstream, there are a few clusters of convection over the Great
Lakes region. The first is a decaying MCV across southern
Michigan. Over the past couple hours, it lost all of its
lightning and heavier precip. If it maintains steady state
motion and intensity, it will arrive in Warren County by 0630 AM
with nothing more than light rain. The second convective
cluster is to the north of the aforementioned MCV. This cluster
is much more electrically active, but it is tracking to the east
and will likely stay north of the PA NY border for the time
being. However if this cluster develops more of a flanking line
of convection on its south side, it would probably move into our
NW zones between 0730 and 0800 AM. A third cluster of
convection is located just west of Chicago. This convection is
also showing signs of weakening lately, but its remnants would
most likely be over our NW zones by mid afternoon.

Model soundings show a capping inversion and just 200-500 J/kg
of MLCAPE through this afternoon, so currently not expecting
much intensification of convection as it moves in from upstream.
However there is a noticeable uptick in instability progged for
the evening hours (5-11 PM). The HREF shows temperatures in the
mid 60s-70s, dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s, and surface-
based CAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range during this timeframe.
0-6km bulk shear of 30 to 45 knots will be supportive of
organized convection. Model hodographs show decent curvature in
the low levels, with 0-3 KM SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2. Damaging
winds appear to be the primary threat with these storms, but a
conditional hail and tornado threat is not off the table
especially with any discrete cells. SPC continues the slight
risk over the northern half of Central PA, with the highest
probabilities of thunder in the NW.

As a slow moving cold front approaches NW PA Tuesday night,
additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely to
ride along it. With instability decreasing by midnight, these
storms will gradually weaken. Main concern may transition to
a heavy rainfall threat for any training heavy precip. Isolated
flash flooding may become possible, but as of right now the
threat is too low to include any of our counties in a Flood
Watch (there is one up for much of western New York State).

The cold front will inch southward across Central PA on
Wednesday, bringing additional showers and thunderstorms to the
region. With the front dividing the area, high temps will range
from the mid 50s in the northern tier to the mid 70s across the
south. SPC draws a MRGL risk for severe weather south of
Interstate 80.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Very warm temperatures continue through the
weekend, although a backdoor cold front will likely bring cooler
temps across eastern zones Thursday.

There is fairly large spread in model guidance for temperatures
on Thursday. For Harrisburg as an example, the interquartile
range for high temps from the NBM is 59-74F. Some guidance (NAM)
even keeps highs in the 40s. Much of the uncertainty traces
back to limited predictability with respect to the placement of
a backdoor cold front. Don`t be surprised if we end up with
temps in the 40s and 50s with low clouds, drizzle, and patchy
fog across our eastern zones Thursday. The cool weather does
look to be limited just to Thursday. By Friday the front lifts
north as a warm front and model guidance is more tightly
clustered showing temps in the 70s areawide. Warm weather
sticks around for the weekend before a cold front moves through
later Sunday knocking temps back down for Monday.

 

[ChescoWx]

We will finish March with our 1st above normal temperature month since way back in September. Every fall and winter month except September ended with below normal temperatures. Our seesaw temperatures typical of spring will continue over the next several days. We have a well above normal day today before we turn much chiller tomorrow. We warm again by Friday through the weekend before turning much cooler again to start the new work week. Rain chances to really ramp up tomorrow into Wednesday night.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 60. Warm days ahead. Tomorrow’s max min record of 61 could fall. Not seeing much evidence of rain for today down this way but things should liven up a bit tomorrow. Our youngest turns 4 tomorrow. The time, it is a flyin’. 

[Itstrainingtime]

2 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Low of 60. Warm days ahead. Tomorrow’s max min record of 61 could fall. Not seeing much evidence of rain for today down this way but things should liven up a bit tomorrow. Our youngest turns 4 tomorrow. The time, it is a flyin’. 

Happy birthday, little snowmanette! Our youngest will be turning 25 this year. Holy crap. She was actually due to enter the world on 9/11/2001 but the day's events were enough that she came a few days later. Just hard to believe that was 25 years ago. Where does the time go?

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Never heard of either of these places -- national high of 101 at Cibola, AZ and low of 7 at Saint Mary, MT.  7-day precip map shows the contrast from SE to NW across the state.

[Itstrainingtime]

A few days ago, this coming Saturday looked like a damp, dreary day with highs potentially staying in the 40s. It now appears that we'll set a new record high with temps in the mid 80s. In fact, 3 of the next 5 days could feature 80+ readings in the LSV. 

[Voyager]

41 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

A few days ago, this coming Saturday looked like a damp, dreary day with highs potentially staying in the 40s. It now appears that we'll set a new record high with temps in the mid 80s. In fact, 3 of the next 5 days could feature 80+ readings in the LSV. 

The 40s come back on Monday for some of us perhaps. My forecast high was 49 as of this morning.

[Itstrainingtime]

45 minutes ago, Voyager said:

The 40s come back on Monday for some of us perhaps. My forecast high was 49 as of this morning.

We'll see. Probably a decent chance if the front is as strong as it appears now. 

[Itstrainingtime]

2 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Never heard of either of these places -- national high of 101 at Cibola, AZ and low of 7 at Saint Mary, MT.  7-day precip map shows the contrast from SE to NW across the state.

I miss your monthly temp prognostications. Where will March end up? 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I miss your monthly temp prognostications. Where will March end up? 

Well, it won't be much of a prognostication with only one day left in the month haha, but ask and you shall receive.  I'll say we end the month ~4 degrees AN, with a mean temp of 45.9 -- good for 15th place all-time, tied with 1977.  Book it.  I will try and start doing it again towards the end of every month.  Been busy, but you're right, I need to keep that crystal ball clean.

[AccuChris]

Up to 82° in Lebanon. Glorious


.

[canderson]

84 here. I guess we skipped the second half of March, April and May.