Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread

[Yardstickgozinya]

Wpc has highlighted a marginal risk for excessive rainfall ,to include all but, South central and South eastern Pennsylvania. 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=1

[Yardstickgozinya]

I think most of us realize expansion this time of year is many times the likely outcome . I wonder if anybody here could figure out the likelihood of spc expansions versus, reduction versus a consistent forecast in the final 24 and 8 hours before zero hour. 

[mahantango#1]

Dauphin County should be included in this if you look at SPC's map.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
422 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

PAZ006-011-012-018-019-025>028-034>037-041-045-046-049>052-056-063-
064-270830-
Potter-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-
Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-
Northern Lycoming-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-
Montour-Northumberland-Perry-Cumberland-Adams-
422 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are possible this evening
into early tonight.

[Itstrainingtime]

3 hours ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

I think most of us realize expansion this time of year is many times the likely outcome . I wonder if anybody here could figure out the likelihood of spc expansions versus, reduction versus a consistent forecast in the final 24 and 8 hours before zero hour. 

That's an interesting point and something I was thinking about last week - very rarely does SPC scale back on their outlooks until the event has passed any given area of the country. I honestly can't remember it happening though I'm sure it has. Very high percentage of the time the map gets expanded, though. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 45.  Nice day today, followed by another solid rainfall tonight, and then a downright cold day tomorrow.  Onward.