Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread

[Itstrainingtime]

CTP hasn't updated their AFD since 5am this morning. Seems like a good day to update this a little more often. 

[AccuChris]

As others have noted, a pretty muted severe weather day so far, especially in PA. See what kind of winds the cold frontal rain band can generate this evening but it seems as though the convective severe threat has waned for many


.

[Jns2183]

Has the moron shut down his Facebook yet? I hope all the idiots who make meteorologist job hell turn their rotting brains on that dude.

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[Yardstickgozinya]

12 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Hopefully I have enough time to like to sit down stitch those weirdos together for for 2011. The archive goes back to 1995. So if you have other dates your interested in let me know. I've spent the last month on a learning binge trying to piece together the ridiculously fragmented data and archive environment of weather data available and tools as well. Far more daunting then I thought but I produced basically 30 pages of a guide for myself. I think in going to take on trying to get a copy of AWIPS the nws made public to run on an AWS server so that I can run out the graphics power necessary to run it per hour use basis. 20 bucks a month is a lot better than spending $5,000 to build something that can run it. That's the main software that is that the workstations of the national weather service that brings in all the desperate data feeds that they've almost made totally public now. I even got authorization to use part of there MADIS feed

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I appreciate that and I do.I'll put something together for you. If you ever want to build a system, my son's been going down to Maryland and bringing back the newest generation.o AMD ryzen 7's and trident 75neo RGB sticks at ridiculous prices. I think you could put one together there for nearly half the price.  You have to drive down there though, they won't sell it to you for their lowest price online for some reason. I'm actually hoping to head down there later this spring, after I get some mulching in. I'm hoping to put together a gaming and editing pc before ram gets any more out of control. The more you buy, the cheaper it gets.

  Unless we destabilize , this will probably be my last post for the day.I probably wore my welcome out with some of these guys before the sun even came up. 

 

 

 

[TheDreamTraveler]

The tornado watch was lifted for my area. I had feeling that was going to end up happen with how lackluster it's been out. Was also cancelled down to DC too it seems

[Yardstickgozinya]

Thank you @Jns2183. I originally missed the post with the rbr files. I'll definitely be checking those out over the next couple nights.  

[Yardstickgozinya]

4 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

The tornado watch was lifted for my area. I had feeling that was going to end up happen with how lackluster it's been out. Was also cancelled down to DC too it seems

Looking forward to twenty years from now reflecting on the all time biggest bust ,because this was one for the books.

[canderson]

43 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

CTP hasn't updated their AFD since 5am this morning. Seems like a good day to update this a little more often. 

Finally posted 

DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Severe t-storm risk confined to southeast
quadrant of CPA through early evening

Focus for severe t-storms appears confined to the southeast
quadrant of the CWA over the Lower Susquehanna Valley. This
area is on the northern end of linear convective line evolving
eastward from DCA/BWI. Within a deeply meridional wind profile,
damaging winds and embedded tornadoes will be the main hazards.
Latest WOFS is more bullish on severe risk (both wind and tor
probs) to the south of the MD line toward Chesapeake Bay. We
plan to trim the Tornado Watch #68 based on the latest SPC watch
status report.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Quick burst of moderate to heavy snow and
sharply falling temperatures to bring slippery travel across
the Alleghenies this evening into early tonight

Well-defined surface/arctic cold front is on the western
doorstep at 18-19Z. Observed 1hr temp drops are on the order of
10-15 degrees along with wind shift to the west. In wake of
this FROPA, temperatures will continue to plummet due to strong
CAA, while mid and upper level flow remains southerly in
response to the strongly tilted and digging upper trough.
Combined with upslope enhancement, this will cause precipitation
to rapidly transition to snow from the Laurel Highlands across
the western and central Alleghenies through the evening commute.

While some snow accumulation may be initially limited to non-
paved surfaces particularly at lower elevations, the higher
elevations will see a two-part winter wx event consisting of
front-end "thump" followed by lake-enhanced upslope flow. A
brief period of snowfall rates surpassing 1"/hr (>60% chance) is
expected btwn roughly 00-04UTC where a quick 1-4" of snow is
fcst. Typically favored locations +2,000ft elevation should
continue to see additional minor accums into Tuesday with local
amounts 4+ possible.

Pressure rises and steeper lapse rates/colder air aloft will
maintain gusty winds with max gusts approaching advisory levels.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Much colder with a couple of locally heavy snow
showers possible Tuesday

As the trailing vorticity maxima and secondary shortwave
embedded within the trough over the OH Valley moves east Tuesday
afternoon, convective cellular snow showers and isolated snow
squalls could develop across the area. Additional snowfall
accumulations will be light with any of these convective
elements, but briefly heavy snow rates and gusty winds could
cause local travel impacts due to rapid reductions in
visibility. A SPS may be needed due to the broad coverage of
locally heavy snow showers.

[MAG5035]

FROPA occurred here around 330pm, temps back to 48ºF. There’s been some regeneration of the line associated with the front itself, in the form of some heavier downpours here. Pressure’s been bottomed out around 992mb for awhile as this is a pretty deep storm system. 

Now to try to reel in just the 2nd measurable snowfall in the last like 50 days. Upstream radars at PBZ and RLX (Charleston) look pretty solid. This is probably going to catch some folks off guard tonight. 

[canderson]

1 minute ago, MAG5035 said:

FROPA occurred here around 330pm, temps back to 48ºF. There’s been some regeneration of the line associated with the front itself, in the form of some heavier downpours here. Pressure’s been bottomed out around 992mb for awhile as this is a pretty deep storm system. 

Now to try to reel in just the 2nd measurable snowfall in the last like 50 days. Upstream radars at PBZ and RLX (Charleston) look pretty solid. This is probably going to catch some folks off guard tonight. 

Did it push down any wind? 
 

 

[MAG5035]

4 minutes ago, canderson said:

Did it push down any wind? 
 

 

Nah, starting to get a bit breezy now behind the front. Everything’s been under 30mph so far today. 

[canderson]

7 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Nah, starting to get a bit breezy now behind the front. Everything’s been under 30mph so far today. 

Has the lack of vertical instability on the storms been what caused nothing to bring down the shear winds? We had not much cape but that’s not a need when interacting with shear levels so curious why everything has been muted so much. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

Dude's. The weather's channel's future cast is a beat down. Tornado derecho followed by a double barrel , lake effect northeaster. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

Yep .  back to edit this one . Don't want give a false flag .Just noticing that there's some surface energy left over and a week overlap upstate. I'm not saying it's gonna amount to something major. Stay safe all

 

[Yardstickgozinya]

That's some backed low level winds  there t Is it not? I'm not quite sure.

[Yardstickgozinya]

[Jns2183]

I predict this line upcoming packs more of a punch then first one

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[Mount Joy Snowman]

Is anyone staying up to see the changeover to snow? I have to be up very early so doubt I make it but wouldn’t mind getting some reports from those that do. 

[Blizzard of 93]

7 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Is anyone staying up to see the changeover to snow? I have to be up very early so doubt I make it but wouldn’t mind getting some reports from those that do. 

Very happy to see minimal impacts from the severe threat today!

Now, let’s root for that changeover this evening. Temps are dropping like crazy over the western half of PA now.

Latest GFS & HRRR last hour is bringing 1 to 2 inches of snow even to the LSV.

It should be a fascinating weather evening. I might nap in the early evening & then wake up late night to watch it snow if the radar looks promising later on.