Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[Interstate]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Go to bed 

???  Did you even look at the H5 maps?

[DDweatherman]

Last one of the year, candidly I hope the low goes over Salisbury. I’ve been too nice to you guys the last couple years on the fall line and south 

[SnowenOutThere]

To those saying the CMC is good I respectfully disagree. Its extremely close to being good but as is doesn't quite get the rates needed to dynamically cool the column. Hopefully the next panel proves me wrong 

[winter_warlock]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Looks pretty good to me 

Tucked 993 low looks good to me.  Why do some think it's not good???  Am I missing something lol

[TSSN+]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

To those saying the CMC is good I respectfully disagree. Its extremely close to being good but as is doesn't quite get the rates needed to dynamically cool the column. Hopefully the next panel proves me wrong 

Pivotal maps not always correct on precip type. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

To those saying the CMC is good I respectfully disagree. Its extremely close to being good but as is doesn't quite get the rates needed to dynamically cool the column. Hopefully the next panel proves me wrong 

God its so close

[LP08]

It’s sloppier at h5 at the critical moments.  It’s ok to say it’s not as good as it was.

[SnowenOutThere]

Chesapeake bay lost 60+ inches 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

God its so close

Every run is gonna waver on this kind of scenario. It’s one of those 3/2001 one win loss opportunities somewhere. 

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

To those saying the CMC is good I respectfully disagree. Its extremely close to being good but as is doesn't quite get the rates needed to dynamically cool the column. Hopefully the next panel proves me wrong 

Still 4 + days out

 I'd worry about rates later.  The fact that CMC is similar to GFS is good enough for me at this point

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, LP08 said:

It’s sloppier at h5 at the critical moments.  It’s ok to say it’s not as good as it was.

Exactly, I wouldn't call it bad but it definitely isn't good. It's honestly a more realistic depiction of what this setup has to offer which is a 1-3 storm with the coastal missing east. 

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

God its so close

I'd take that at this point!!

[baltosquid]

Worse than 12z but still keeps a very similar idea. I really don't think it's worth panicking over (not saying anyone is). Decent 00z so far.

[Interstate]

I love how people throw insults... when they do not even look at the maps.  I never said it was bad or good.  I was just pointing out that the H5 was not nearly as good as the GFS.

[LP08]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Exactly, I wouldn't call it bad but it definitely isn't good. It's honestly a more realistic depiction of what this setup has to offer which is a 1-3 storm with the coastal missing east. 

Too many vorts to call any one solution more realistic than another. The setup is there and it just comes down to interactions and spacing.

[Solution Man]

We have seen what we need to see at this point…good results in 0z. Need to tighten shot group, and get Dr. Terrible to cooperate just a bit.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Interstate said:

I love how people throw insults... when they do not even look at the maps.  I never said it was bad or good.  I was just pointing out that the H5 was not nearly as good as the GFS.

As much as Will has made some shit posts about the euro, I’m definitely not buying this one til the euro and ai show some kind of evo like the gfs or cmc. 

[winter_warlock]

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Every run is gonna waver on this kind of scenario. It’s one of those 3/2001 one win loss opportunities somewhere. 

Agreed!!!  models will wobble a lil bit.  But CMC and GFS do look very similar and I'll take that with 80+ hours to go 

[Weather Will]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Pivotal maps not always correct on precip type. 

Go to bed! WB 0Z Can.

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

We have seen what we need to see at this point…good results in 0z. Need to tighten shot group, and get Dr. Terrible to cooperate just a bit.

Amen!!

[Scraff]

Alright peeps. Pretty good vibes today. I expect some good news in the AM. Overnight crew do your thing. Bring it home!

[winter_warlock]

If the euro looks anything like the CMC and GFS,.. then ur gonna see a lot of happy people in here!

[Solution Man]

Who started this 

[Weather Will]

By 10 pm snow everywhere, takeaway Can. Still has a big storm riding up the mid Atlantic coast.

[baltosquid]

Don't think UKMET is gonna do it with a broader trough and lower heights but we'll see. H5 most closely resembles the Canadian but flatter imo. Maybe it pushes for a negative tilt and rescues something.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Too many vorts to call any one solution more realistic than another. The setup is there and it just comes down to interactions and spacing.

Yep...total slot machine atm. That's why I'm not gonna jump up and down at good model runs right now. Now if this were Saturday morning? Then I'd be sweating about last week of February trolling 

[LordBaltimore]

I would not trust the CMC on boundary layer temps at all. It's just not in the same league as the other globals

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

Who started this 

I am the Walrus

[LP08]

Ukie a whiff east, just too broad

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

Don't think UKMET is gonna do it with a broader trough and lower heights but we'll see. H5 most closely resembles the Canadian but flatter imo. Maybe it pushes for a negative tilt and rescues something.

yes and even more progressive