mob1 Posted Wednesday at 04:11 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:11 PM I would take the GFS verbatim (the surface depiction) in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey_Snowhole Posted Wednesday at 04:13 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:13 PM 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: we will still see some snow No doubt, but we want that ridge placement further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Wednesday at 04:13 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:13 PM that 12Z solution would work for me- lets not get greedy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Wednesday at 04:14 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:14 PM Cmc much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted Wednesday at 04:15 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:15 PM 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: it still is snowing in the immediate metro and still 5 days out this is not set in stone only 1 model run 1 minute ago, Wxbear25 said: Verbatim, yes. Right now we shouldn’t care about verbatim The upper levels improved significantly and were 4 days out. If this were happening tomorrow, sure, we could just dismiss the threat. But it aint I take that 500mb chart and roll the dice any day of the week, it’s not far off AT ALL I'm not writing this off 5 days out. I just know from experience that this setup favors SNE. Aside from a few runs here and there, most of the snow has been from the initial overrunning/inverted trough, rather than from the coastal itself, which develops too far offshore. Even the 18z GFS from yesterday, which was really tucked in at H5, had most of the precip offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Wednesday at 04:16 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:16 PM 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Cmc much better Crushes mid Atlantic coast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted Wednesday at 04:17 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:17 PM 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: that 12Z solution would work for me- lets not get greedy This is probably close to the ceiling with this unless there are a few significant changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Wednesday at 04:18 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:18 PM Cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted Wednesday at 04:18 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:18 PM CMC is a blizzard 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Wednesday at 04:19 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:19 PM 2/18 12z GFS Total QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Wednesday at 04:19 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:19 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxbear25 Posted Wednesday at 04:19 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:19 PM Just now, NJwx85 said: This is probably close to the ceiling with this unless there are a few significant changes. You are wildly selling this setup short Will it happen? Not sure. But the ceiling here is tremendous 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted Wednesday at 04:19 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:19 PM 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Crushes mid Atlantic coast Plenty nice for us, but good God does it obliterate coastal areas from southern NJ to VA with snow and wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted Wednesday at 04:20 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:20 PM 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cmc cmc is a blizzard for NyC and east it's that simple! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Wednesday at 04:21 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:21 PM 2/18 12z GGEM Total QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted Wednesday at 04:22 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:22 PM I think you can make an argument that the CMC improved from its last run... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Wednesday at 04:23 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:23 PM 47 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 2/1 12z Summary NYC ICON: 0 GFS AI AIGFS: 0.2 GFS: 0.7 GGEM: 0.8 Updated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted Wednesday at 04:23 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:23 PM 7 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said: No doubt, but we want that ridge placement further west Ridge placement I think is workable if the Saturday energy can get out of the way in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted Wednesday at 04:23 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:23 PM cmc is a blizzard for NyC and east it's that simple! 50 mile jog further west and and cmc would be a HECs . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Wednesday at 04:23 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:23 PM 3 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said: You are wildly selling this setup short Will it happen? Not sure. But the ceiling here is tremendous Yeah anywhere from 0 to 18" is still on the table within 50 miles of nyc 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted Wednesday at 04:24 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:24 PM 3 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said: You are wildly selling this setup short Will it happen? Not sure. But the ceiling here is tremendous My past experience tells me otherwise, but let's see where we are at this time on Friday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted Wednesday at 04:24 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:24 PM this is going to keep trending north and we gonna tuck watch! No scientific reasoning but trends all year have been north and we trending north now! 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey_Snowhole Posted Wednesday at 04:25 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:25 PM 1 minute ago, Nibor said: Ridge placement I think is workable if the Saturday energy can get out of the way in time. I agree, a lot of moving parts goes without saying timing will be very crucial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Wednesday at 04:25 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:25 PM 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cmc much better Canadian looks similar to the GFS - Euro coming further west at 6Z started this - proves the Euro is still the leader of the pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Wednesday at 04:26 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:26 PM 1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: this is going to keep trending north and we gonna tuck watch! No scientific reasoning but trends all year have been north and we trending north now! Um not true. Remember our blizzard that instead hit the Carolinas? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxbear25 Posted Wednesday at 04:27 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:27 PM Just now, NJwx85 said: My past experience tells me otherwise, but let's see where we are at this time on Friday. I mean, yeah, it could change and the most likely scenario isn’t a massive HECS… but you’re telling me the ceiling, which is the top should everything fall exactly right, is 6-10”? I don’t take issue with your experience or forecasting chops, just the notion of that low a ceiling this far out given the look also, if anything, I’d be more worried about it “blowing its load”, so to speak, south of us than hitting SNE more, unless you’re specifically referring to like the Cape as opposed to the region at large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxbear25 Posted Wednesday at 04:29 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:29 PM 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Yeah anywhere from 0 to 18" is still on the table within 50 miles of nyc Quite literally. We’re in like Notre Dame cathedral here, floor to ceiling is massive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted Wednesday at 04:29 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:29 PM 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Canadian looks similar to the GFS - Euro coming further west at 6Z started this - proves the Euro is still the leader of the pack euro sucks it's the Euro Ai that's king always showed a storm and i bet $10 that euro ai will tuck on the next run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey_Snowhole Posted Wednesday at 04:30 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:30 PM 1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: euro sucks it's the Euro Ai that's king always showed a storm and i bet $10 that euro ai will tuck on the next run! I’ll take that bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Wednesday at 04:31 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:31 PM 2/18 12z UKMET closer and close to the GFS/GEGM Solution - UKMET does have a suppressed bias (at least it used to) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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