SACRUS Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 2/18 00z Summary Total QPF NYC ICON: 0 GFS AI AIGFS: 1.4 GFS: 0.3 GGEM: 0.3 UKMET: 0.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Wow is the euro going to win here after being alone ? Its right when we dont want it to be right but when it shows something good its wrong. Cant trust these models past 5 days. Icon now has nothing up here. That's why it's foolish to get so invested in every model run 6-7 days out. It's gonna change 1000 times. Maybe by Thursday get better idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 whats that saying " you never want to be in the bullseye 5 days out " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 2 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: whats that saying " you never want to be in the bullseye 5 days out " Or it can be the usual models lose the storm timeframe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Or it can be the usual models lose the storm timeframe. Was probably just fantasy bomb runs like we’ve had all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irish Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 11 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: whats that saying " you never want to be in the bullseye 5 days out " Well tomorrow will be 5 days out, so still plenty of time to see how this goes... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 2/18 00z GFS AI AIGFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 00z GFS AI AIGFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 00z GFS AI AIGFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Total QPF GFS AI AIGFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 12 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Was probably just fantasy bomb runs like we’ve had all winter lol so icon loses the storm and it's gone. bro icon is the worst global model! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said: lol so icon loses the storm and it's gone. bro icon is the worst global model! Euro ai and euro have to hope they stops or trends better tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Just now, nycsnow said: Euro ai and euro have to hope they stops or trends better tonight as long as we have euro ai on our side we'll have a storm. Regular euro is equivalent to canadian maybe, not great! It used to be the best but there was a upgrade several years ago and ever since it's done pretty bad but this year it has been horrendous! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 minute ago, nycsnow said: Euro ai and euro have to hope they stops or trends better tonight Almost 2" qpf on ai GFS. An I wouldn't call one run a trend either 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 GFS doesn't have a storm lol am i missing something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 And even if it is gone. Id rather know now then get kicked in the nuts on Friday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said: GFS doesn't have a storm lol am i missing something Unfortunately that's the tenor of the winter. Storms just get shredded in the fast flow. Too many vorts flying around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Check back tomorrow guys. This could be the typical range where the models lose it. Night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 2/18 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 The icon is a horrific model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 the good models never lose the storm gfs and euro ai watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 it's tough to bet agaisnt the euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 The operational GFS has lost storms frequently. The icon and GFS losing this at this time-frame is not untypical. The verdict is still out. WX/PT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 GFS 1/10 of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 minute ago, David-LI said: it's tough to bet agaisnt the euro i'll bet against the euro if euro ai has the storm we've been through this all year. Euro sucks 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 39 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: The writing was on the wall with the GEFS showing very little support for the op along with the EURO AI shifting se. Lesson learned never to get excited for a storm 5 days out with a hostile pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 The GFS didn't lose the storm, the trough flattened out a bit so the storm system slipped out to our south and east. That could happen. The Icon did the same thing really. Not to say it will but this can easily trend back closer to us on those models. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Once again the media jinxed another storm. Earlier today the media on TV were mentioning a possible major snowstorm this weekend. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 minute ago, Neblizzard said: Lesson learned never to get excited for a storm 5 days out with a hostile pattern It's actually an increasingly favorable pattern for a storm. Amplification of the jet is increasing and things are slowing down just a little. That's as good as it gets going towards March & April. And there's still plenty of cold air to work with though I do think we will likely have a warmer stretch at some point soon. The cold is still cold enough. WX/PT 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Once again the media jinxed another storm. Earlier today the media on TV were mentioning a possible major snowstorm this weekend. Mother nature doesn't care about me you the media Twitter nothing lol. That's so silly to say. Just cant be to invested outside 3 days. People buy into the hype that's all they're doing. Exposure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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