2026-2027 Super El Nino

[bluewave]

On 7/21/2026 at 9:14 AM, mitchnick said:

Without going into a competing long response, I  frankly just don't care about a warming planet. There's nothing I  can do about it aside from having a well insulated home (which I have since I receive the highest rating from my local energy provider for houses my size) and driving a fuel efficient vehicle. It is not, nor has it ever been, on my list of life's concerns at all. I care about weather imby and judge that weather from current conditions and progs. How those conditions got there, I don't care.

 

16 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Oh, the "not me, it's you" defense. Lol

If you call trying to get to the bottom line of a post/position an attack, I  can't help you. But the bottom line is, you haven't denied my synopsis of your post/position because it's accurate. Which is fine. You can take whatever position you want. But clarity matters, that's all.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

29 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Many forecasts are for warmth but they are just going by enso. Many other factors to consider. 

Yeah, I will always point out that the coldest winter CONUS in the 21st century was during a strong la nina. Strong/super el ninos generally mean warmth, but not always.

It's too early to tell whether this upcoming winter is going to be warm, but if the models are still showing a cold signal in September, then people need to accept that it will probably be colder (and possibly snowier) winter.

[snowman19]

25 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Yeah, I will always point out that the coldest winter CONUS in the 21st century was during a strong la nina. Strong/super el ninos generally mean warmth, but not always.

It's too early to tell whether this upcoming winter is going to be warm, but if the models are still showing a cold signal in September, then people need to accept that it will probably be colder (and possibly snowier) winter.

Which super El Niños were cold winters (Dec-Mar)? 72-73: warm,  82-83: warm, 97-98: warm, 15-16: warm

*PHL-NYC-BOS corridor. Strong doesn’t count*

[GaWx]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Which super El Niños were cold winters (Dec-Mar)? 72-73: warm,  82-83: warm, 97-98: warm, 15-16: warm

I assume you’re referring specifically to the NE US as the first 3 winters weren’t warm in the SE. They were pretty close to normal there.

[snowman19]

22 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I assume you’re referring specifically to the NE US as the first 3 weren’t warm in the SE. They were pretty close to normal there.

He’s from Philly, so yes. I would love for him to let us know which super El Niño winters (Dec-Mar) since 1970 were cold in the PHL-NYC-BOS corridor. Strong doesn’t count. I’ll wait….   @PhiEaglesfan712

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Which super El Niños were cold winters (Dec-Mar)? 72-73: warm,  82-83: warm, 97-98: warm, 15-16: warm

Yeah, there weren’t any cold winters in the East with super El Niños relative to the climatology at the time. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[MJO812]

35 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Yeah, I will always point out that the coldest winter CONUS in the 21st century was during a strong la nina. Strong/super el ninos generally mean warmth, but not always.

It's too early to tell whether this upcoming winter is going to be warm, but if the models are still showing a cold signal in September, then people need to accept that it will probably be colder (and possibly snowier) winter.

September is also early. Check back in November.

[MJO812]

24 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I assume you’re referring specifically to the NE US as the first 3 winters weren’t warm in the SE. They were pretty close to normal there.

This will not be a cold winter ( definitely the first half )  we have to see how fast the EL nino weakens.

[GaWx]

28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, there weren’t any cold winters in the East with super El Niños relative to the climatology at the time. 
 

 

 Chris,

 The following is a better way to look at how 1997-8 did:

using the more appropriate/well centered climo base of 1981-2010 instead of 1961-90, which is earlier than 1997-8. Using the earlier, colder 1961-90 makes 1997-8 anomalies ~1F warmer than they actually were in many areas as you know vs the available best centered climo of 1981-2010: still mild in NE but not as mild and SE NN:

[George001]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This will not be a cold winter ( definitely the first half )  we have to see how fast the EL nino weakens.

Yeah it will be warm. The question is more the magnitude of the warmth as that will make a big difference in terms of how much of the precip is wet vs white. There is a big difference between say +2 AN and +5-6 AN.