2026-2027 Super El Nino

[roardog]

42 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Holy Moses! That has relative 3.4’s latest weekly averaged value way up at +1.94 vs NOAA’s +1.4! What the??

That's actually frustrating. How hard is it in 2026 to be able to accurately measure what the RONI is? Is it because NOAA has a different way to measure RONI VS ONI or is it the actual water temperatures that are off between the two organizations? 0.5 is a huge difference.

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, roardog said:

That's actually frustrating. How hard is it in 2026 to be able to accurately measure what the RONI is? Is it because NOAA has a different way to measure RONI VS ONI or is it the actual water temperatures that are off between the two organizations? 0.5 is a huge difference.

Well, as the comparison to cyclonicwx RONI graphs have been showing, NOAA seems like it could be 0.3C too low. Regardless, BoA does seem a bit high. I just figured out that they're very likely using the warm biased (by ~0.2C) Coral Reef Watch SSTs instead of OISST, which is ~0.2C cooler than CRW:

CRW: was ~+1.94 for the avg of the week ending 7/26/26…so that almost has to be the reason:

The average of the 2 may be closest to reality. 
 

@snowman19

[bluewave]

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

11 hours ago, bluewave said:

The current -PNA is mostly a reflection of how strong the ridge is north of Hawaii is. That’s the really strong 500 mb -PDO we are getting in July.

The SSTs are mostly a lagging indicator since the 500mb pattern drove the PDO decline last few months. There’s probably a background feedback between the SST and atmosphere which has kept the -PDO so negative during the 2020s.

This summer PDO drop has been a common theme during the 2020s with a gradual rise to less negative or neutral by the winter. So our new 2020s seasonal cycle.

We can’t really predict the PNA beyond the short term so too early to put out a precise winter PNA forecast. But just to say that the 2023-2024 super El Niño with a -PDO had a less positive winter PNA than 2015-2016 with a strong +PDO

DJF 2023-2024…….PNA…..+0.58…..PDO…..-1.34

DJF 2015-2016……..PNA……+1.42…..PDO…..+1.07

Well I can at least say with high confidence that it won't be a DJFM <-60dm anomaly in the N. Pacific. In these different times, analogs only go so far (our historical database is somewhat limited to larger cycles). It will certainly be interesting to see what goes on in the N. Pacific this Fall/Winter with the SOI as a top-5 negative event since the 1800s. The SOI being positive relative to ENSO was correlating with -PNA, but now that's not the case this year. 

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Well I can at least say with high confidence that it won't be a DJFM <-60dm anomaly in the N. Pacific. In these different times, analogs only go so far (our historical database is somewhat limited to larger cycles). It will certainly be interesting to see what goes on in the N. Pacific this Fall/Winter with the SOI as a top-5 negative event since the 1800s. The SOI being positive relative to ENSO was correlating with -PNA, but now that's not the case this year. 

We may not start to get a better idea about things until the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude 500 mb pattern actually couples with the El Niño. This continues to be a strong -PDO 500 mb pattern which has translated into the drop in the SST PDO and the near record ridge north of Hawaii.

Have never seen the Southern Hemisphere so fully coupled with the El Niño standing wave while the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes are so out of sync. I will compare the VP charts for July in early August against previous super events when JMA posts them.

My only guess is that the standing wave appears to be centered more to the south of the equator than usual. But not really sure since we haven’t seen this disparity with the summers of 2023, 2015, 1997, 1982, and 1972. Perhaps the pattern will slowly begin to shift in the Northern Hemisphere to more of a standard Nino look in the next few months.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, bluewave said:

The current -PNA is mostly a reflection of how strong the ridge is north of Hawaii is. That’s the really strong 500 mb -PDO we are getting in July.

The SSTs are mostly a lagging indicator since the 500mb pattern drove the PDO decline last few months. There’s probably a background feedback between the SST and atmosphere which has kept the -PDO so negative during the 2020s.

This summer PDO drop has been a common theme during the 2020s with a gradual rise to less negative or neutral by the winter. So our new 2020s seasonal cycle.

We can’t really predict the PNA beyond the short term so too early to put out a precise winter PNA forecast. But just to say that the 2023-2024 super El Niño with a -PDO had a less positive winter PNA than 2015-2016 with a strong +PDO

DJF 2023-2024…….PNA…..+0.58…..PDO…..-1.34

DJF 2015-2016……..PNA……+1.42…..PDO…..+1.07

Yes we can; it's gong to be positive. I'll bet you $500 right now-

There is absolutely zero doubt in my mind. The PDO is another story, as that is much more nebulous. 

 

[snowman19]

 
 

IMO we ain’t seen nothing yet. Once this massive WWB and DWKW do their dirty work over the next month or so, I think we pop +12C subsurface anomalies in the EPAC

[Jebman]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

IMO we ain’t seen nothing yet. Once this massive WWB and DWKW do their dirty work over the next month or so, I think we pop +12C subsurface anomalies in the EPAC

Are you saying the Nino will hit 12 C ? if so I am just elated! That should ROID up that STJ so much that Texas will resemble Waterworld in places!!!

There is nothing in this world that gladdens my heart more, than watching that water level rise from a flood!

Watching water levels rise in Ft Myers Beach from Ian truly gladdened my heart. I have watched this shweet vid probably hundreds of times! I LOVE storm surge!!! The transformation between 1:00:00 and 1:30:00 was so fascinating! I loved this ENTIRE VID! I am absolutely IN SUBLIME LOVE with the STORM SURGE!

 

 

[snowman19]

Incredibly impressive sea level anomalies/thermocline:

[bluewave]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes we can; it's gong to be positive. I'll bet you $500 right now-

There is absolutely zero doubt in my mind. The PDO is another story, as that is much more nebulous. 

 

Just saying it’s going to be positive isn’t much of a stretch. But my examples of 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 both featured positive +PNA patterns.

The magnitude and character of the positive is the question here which is a function of where the main Nino ridge and Aleutian trough complex becomes established.

Plus we have the difference between the CPC PNA and the 500 mb PNA at times. Sometimes we get bootleg +PNA patterns like in January 2023 with a deep trough underneath the Canadian ridge out West which many consider a -PNA.

 

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Incredibly impressive sea level anomalies/thermocline:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We may have to be patient before getting something more closely resembling an El Niño pattern across the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

44 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Just saying it’s going to be positive isn’t much of a stretch. But my examples of 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 both featured positive +PNA patterns.

The magnitude and character of the positive is the question here which is a function of where the main Nino ridge and Aleutian trough complex becomes established.

Plus we have the difference between the CPC PNA and the 500 mb PNA at times. Sometimes we get bootleg +PNA patterns like in January 2023 with a deep trough underneath the Canadian ridge out West which many consider a -PNA.

 

We may have to be patient before getting something more closely resembling an El Niño pattern across the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

 

 

Oh, okay....agreed. I thought you were implying that it may literally be negative...no way in hell. I agree that it could be boot leg.

[LakePaste25]

My early thoughts is we see a predominately bootleg +PNA/extended pac jet state in the mean that will occasionally retrograde to a -EPO/+TNH for brief periods. Still need to see where the Hadley cell will set up though. 

[Yanksfan]

With a raging southern jet I think we can all agree on a stormy winter. What are the early thoughts on storm tracks; benchmark vs. inland runners?

[LakePaste25]

1 hour ago, Yanksfan said:

With a raging southern jet I think we can all agree on a stormy winter. What are the early thoughts on storm tracks; benchmark vs. inland runners?

If it’s anything like 97-98 there will be a lot of coastal storms that are mostly rain.