2026-2027 Super El Nino

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, BlizzardWx said:

Somebody had made a comment on the cold 80+ N area the other day, but worth noting that sea ice continues to remain near record lows for the date. 

How does area look?

[FPizz]

1 minute ago, FPizz said:

How does area look?

I found them  

[bluewave]

Don’t be surprised if the models like the Euro increase the El Niño regions SST forecasts again on August 5th once the effects of this  near record WWB get incorporated into the new model run. 

 

[roardog]

2 hours ago, BlizzardWx said:

Somebody had made a comment on the cold 80+ N area the other day, but worth noting that sea ice continues to remain near record lows for the date. 

It looks like it’s staying close to 2012 to date but 2012 wasn’t at record low levels yet on this date in 2012. It fell off a cliff in August. 

[GaWx]

52 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I found them  

Yep, extent is doing worse than area as compared to recent years.

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

With today's -16.25, the streak, which began on May 11 is 75 days. The record is 100 consecutive days (January 3 through April 12, 1998). Daily records only go back to 1991.

 Thanks, Don. It will be interesting to see if 2026 beats 1998’s 100 days!

 As you said, the record of the daily SOs goes back only to 1991. I wonder if there’s any way to find dailies pre-1991. Based on the monthlies, I’d say that 1982-3 would have a 50% or higher chance of having a streak exceeding 100 days if the dailies could be found. Why? These monthlies, especially Nov-Mar:

1982  8   -22.2  1
1982  9   -20.0  1
1982  10  -20.5  1
1982  11  -30.0  1
1982  12  -22.6  1
1983  1   -31.4  1
1983  2   -35.7  1
1983  3   -25.7  1

 
 Another good candidate per the monthlies is 1905, especially Mar-June:

1905  2   -18.5  3
1905  3   -27.7  1
1905  4   -38.2  1
1905  5   -34.3  1
1905  6   -27.7  1
1905  7   -19.8  1

One last good possibility is 1896, especially May-Aug:

1896  5   -38.8  3
1896  6   -27.0  1
1896  7   -19.1  1
1896  8   -21.0  1
1896  9   -18.2  1
1896  10  -19.2  1

[TheClimateChanger]

On 7/23/2026 at 11:06 AM, bluewave said:

 

Climatologist49

 

@climatologist49.bsky.social

 

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If July ended today, it would tie with 1936 as the warmest July (and month) on record for the Contiguous U.S. Looking at the forecast for the rest of the month, I suspect we will not quite break the 1936 record.

 

 

1:17 PM · Jul 22, 2026

 

 

 

 

Climatologist49

 

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Map showing how many months so far in 2026 (Thru July 17th) each of the 385 "ThreadEx" stations have set or tied a monthly record high or low temperature record. So far, the totals are: 147 months with a new (set/tie) record high and 16 with a new (set/tie) record low (no duplicates).

 

 

9:26 PM · Jul 18, 2026

At least one of those so-called monthly record lows is fraudulent - there's a spurious 18F reading at YNG reported on 5/24 for some reason. Also, strongly disagree with Brian about the upcoming pattern trending away from the record. In fact, this is the hottest stretch of the month starting today. NWS NBM forecast shows several days of 3-5F above normal to close out the month.

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, BlizzardWx said:

Recent trends of all the nino regions together. You can really see nino 4 leveling off while the others continue to build. 

Region 4 is what makes 2015-16 a poor ENSO analog. This one is developing as a pure canonical, east-based/EP El Niño. Region 4 has been leveled off for a long time now and the most recent 15 day SST anomaly charts on cyclonicwx are actually showing region 4 cooling. All the warming is and has been concentrated in regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2 for months now and it looks to remain that way as far as the eye can see. The best ENSO analog for this event is 1997-98, by far IMO



Region 1+2: We are literally neck and neck with 1997

[TheClimateChanger]

On 7/23/2026 at 11:54 AM, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I thought July 2012 broke the record for the warmest month. Or is that still in verification stage?

No, July 2012 came in 0.04F cooler than July 1936, per NCEI. Close but no cigar. For the whole summer (JJA), 2021 is tied with 1936 for the record at 73.98F.

[roardog]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Region 4 is what makes 2015-16 a poor ENSO analog. This one is developing as a pure canonical, east-based/EP El Niño. Region 4 has been leveled off for a long time now and the most recent 15 day SST anomaly charts on cyclonicwx are actually showing region 4 cooling. All the warming has been concentrated in regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2 for months now and it looks to remain that way as far as the eye can see. The best ENSO analog for this event is 1997-98, bay far IMO

If region 4 really is done warming then the CFSv2 is way off showing warming continuing there into fall. 

[LakePaste25]

Yeah, there is still a 30C isotherm west of Nino 4. So it could spike again sometime between now and in the Fall before we actually start to see some real replacement upwelling in the W pac. This Nino has ways to go before it peaks. I also think some models that show 3.4 peaking in November are peaking it too early. 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

24 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

At least one of those so-called monthly record lows is fraudulent - there's a spurious 18F reading at YNG reported on 5/24 for some reason. Also, strongly disagree with Brian about the upcoming pattern trending away from the record. In fact, this is the hottest stretch of the month starting today. NWS NBM forecast shows several days of 3-5F above normal to close out the month.

[snowman19]

25 minutes ago, roardog said:

If region 4 really is done warming then the CFSv2 is way off showing warming continuing there into fall. 

I never said it’s done warming. My post only dealt with what has happened from when this event started up to now, not what is going to happen in the future with region 4. It may very well start warming again in the fall.

@LakePaste25 I agree with you about the peak. I think this event more than likely peaks in December, not November like the EURO is showing

[snowman19]

Once this DWKW treks into the EPAC and reaches the South American coast over the next month, I think it’s a very real possibility that we see +12C subsurface anomalies. The 30C isotherm east of the dateline supports this
 

In other news, right on time, the +IOD has started to develop….