2026-2027 Super El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's placement geographically is beside the point. 

The mechanism for it's persistence/necessity in the science of CC attribution et al, or for whatever reason, gets in the way of the NAO/tripole assumption.  That is the point. 

Thus, relying on it as a predictor for atmospheric behavior tendencies/correlations therein, are riskier - because those are driven by disparate total physical processes.  The NAO/tripole physics are different than the AMOC for it being a ( possible ) geologic permanent change. 

I'm not saying the AMOC is collapsing, per se.  Maybe it is.  Maybe it isn't. However, just advising that it is being scienced as occurring for that reason.  So We'll see...  But, if so ...the cold blob reflects the AMOC changes... not an NAO forcing (necessarily).

Put even simpler...  cold blog exists, NAO is biased positive. Tough cookies. 

The other aspect, the longer term correlation between the Pacific and NAO is transmitted through the N/A via the PNA.  It's positive.  Which means, when the PNA is positive, the NAO tends to be positive, and vice versa.   So ...I'm not sure how a positive ENSO/+PNA correlation favors that -NAO ... it doesn't based on that.  But that may not be the whole story - there may be something specific to El Nino that gets that anti-correlation to realize more frequently, during the El Nino winter?   These kinds of exceptions exist in principle... worth looking for that. I kind of doubt it though.   In the meantime, it makes intuitive sense that a +PNA jives with a +NAO and vice versa, because of winter planetary wave lengths and the speed of the basal flow.  It would be hard to maintain a western N/A highly curvaceous flow and then expect the flow to bend back around into block over the D. Straight region, when flow is necessarily screwing along at ludicrous speeds due to the hemispheric gradient during DJF.   Fast flow does not like curved surfaces... that's just physics.  Curving the flow increases centrifugal -acceleration; and so as the flow speeds up that force is trying to cancel the curvature and flatten out.  Ex,  in April the flow tends to close off vortices; there is deceleration in the as the geopotential gradient is collapsing. The flow folds in on itself with the loss of basal velocity. 

That's probably why a latter March thru early May -NAO boat ride isn't that uncommon.  Because the flow collapses and the excessive wave transport gets stranded and loads that region.

Actually the cold blob AGW based is just south of Greenland, which is a +NAO tendency. I'm pointing out a cold pool south of New Foundland. Here is the correlation composite

Here is the trend in global temperature. The cold blob does not overloap my -NAO favored area (above map is default positive so it's opposite for -NAO predictor). If anything the Atlantic cold blob is a Winter +NAO favored tendency, by a lot actually. 

Furthermore, my May-Sept N. Atlantic SSTA index has not had a net -NAO prediction in a long time. I discovered the method in 2005, and have been practicing it every year since then. It is 15-5 at getting the Winter sign correctly, and within my estimated 0.54SD, it has performed 11-9. So it's not some random thing that I am assume - I have been testing it and it has been working. 

[Jebman]

5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's placement geographically is beside the point. 

The mechanism for it's persistence/necessity in the science of CC attribution et al, or for whatever reason, gets in the way of the NAO/tripole assumption.  That is the point. 

Thus, relying on it as a predictor for atmospheric behavior tendencies/correlations therein, are riskier - because those are driven by disparate total physical processes.  The NAO/tripole physics are different than the AMOC for it being a ( possible ) geologic permanent change. 

I'm not saying the AMOC is collapsing, per se.  Maybe it is.  Maybe it isn't. However, just advising that it is being scienced as occurring for that reason.  So We'll see...  But, if so ...the cold blob reflects the AMOC changes... not an NAO forcing (necessarily).

Put even simpler...  cold blog exists, NAO is biased positive. Tough cookies. 

The other aspect, the longer term correlation between the Pacific and NAO is transmitted through the N/A via the PNA.  It's positive.  Which means, when the PNA is positive, the NAO tends to be positive, and vice versa.   So ...I'm not sure how a positive ENSO/+PNA correlation favors that -NAO ... it doesn't based on that.  But that may not be the whole story - there may be something specific to El Nino that gets that anti-correlation to realize more frequently, during the El Nino winter?   These kinds of exceptions exist in principle... worth looking for that. I kind of doubt it though.   In the meantime, it makes intuitive sense that a +PNA jives with a +NAO and vice versa, because of winter planetary wave lengths and the speed of the basal flow.  It would be hard to maintain a western N/A highly curvaceous flow and then expect the flow to bend back around into block over the D. Straight region, when flow is necessarily screwing along at ludicrous speeds due to the hemispheric gradient during DJF.   Fast flow does not like curved surfaces... that's just physics.  Curving the flow increases centrifugal -acceleration; and so as the flow speeds up that force is trying to cancel the curvature and flatten out.  Ex,  in April the flow tends to close off vortices; there is deceleration in the as the geopotential gradient is collapsing. The flow folds in on itself with the loss of basal velocity. 

That's probably why a latter March thru early May -NAO boat ride isn't that uncommon.  Because the flow collapses and the excessive wave transport gets stranded and loads that region.

 

4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm suspecting that we're heading for a troughy/humid end game myself. 

If so ... that would lower the "big heat" transport circumstances, blocked by ongoing synoptic balancing.   Doesn't mean it can't happen... talking 'tendency' here ( sorry, not you per se but the common reader tends to formulate extremes in their interpretation .. failing idiosyncratic nuance and/or 'lean' )

We'll see... but there's a leitmotif in the major ensemble sources to pin a trough here regardless of the Pacific.  Ex, over the next 7 days the eastern Pac passes through an impressive -PNA for mid summer... but we don't see heights rising much E of Chicago.  Proooobably this is owing to the shortened wave lengths of summer in general - how that gets away with that.  But here's the rub... that positive anomaly over the N-NE Pac decays, and the pattern moves ends up with trough anyway.  So we're fucked either way, is what the modeling argues.  Okay -   Altho some folks have a more toxic relationship with heat expectations so for them, this is probably the opposite of fucked intimation haha

Typhoon, Please post a hell of a lot more!

I have always enjoyed reading your discourses!

Love it! Post a LOT more!

[Typhoon Tip]

23 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Actually the cold blob AGW based is just south of Greenland, which is a +NAO tendency. I'm pointing out a cold pool south of New Foundland. Here is the correlation composite

Here is the trend in global temperature. The cold blob does not overloap my -NAO favored area (above map is default positive so it's opposite for -NAO predictor). If anything the Atlantic cold blob is a Winter +NAO favored tendency, by a lot actually. 

Furthermore, my May-Sept N. Atlantic SSTA index has not had a net -NAO prediction in a long time. I discovered the method in 2005, and have been practicing it every year since then. It is 15-5 at getting the Winter sign correctly, and within my estimated 0.54SD, it has performed 11-9. So it's not some random thing that I am assume - I have been testing it and it has been working. 

Mmm   I'm not sure those can be parsed out like that... "Actually the cold blob AGW based is just south of Greenland, which is a +NAO tendency. I'm pointing out a cold pool south of New Foundland. Here is the correlation composite "

I would still proceed with interpretive caution.   Look at it this way ... if the cold blob,due to AMOC flux variance is making that NF region "prone" to a colder expression, then a comparative failure in the index correlation is happening...because the former would mean that less forcing is causing the expression to take place. 

In short ...  misleading a circulation mode that isn't so.  

That kind of shit is making the CC attribution seriously f with these mass field aspect.  man 

As far as the cold blob itself ... -NAO and +NAO are taking place more independent because the atmospheric indexes are being driven by a set of forcing, vs the AMOC --> cold blob emerging because of changes in the AMOC.   Again...use with caution.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mmm   I'm not sure those can be parsed out like that... "Actually the cold blob AGW based is just south of Greenland, which is a +NAO tendency. I'm pointing out a cold pool south of New Foundland. Here is the correlation composite "

I would still proceed with interpretive caution.   Look at it this way ... if the cold blob,due to AMOC flux variance is making that NF region "prone" to a colder expression, then a comparative failure in the index correlation is happening...because the former would mean that less forcing is causing the expression to take place. 

In short ...  misleading a circulation mode that isn't so.  

That kind of shit is making the CC attribution seriously f with these mass field aspect.  man 

I'm just saying... in the last 3 Winter's it's come within +0.25 of actual DJFM NAO each time. That can range from +2 to -2 so that's pretty good. It's hard to tell exact number this year because what I based it on, NCAR, has been discontinued, but based on TT dailies, it is negative right now. 

[bluewave]

On 7/21/2026 at 9:10 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Guessing Feb 2015 was the one top-ten coldest.

I wish we would focus a bit more on temp maxes instead of mean because I feel like the nocturnal element does inflate the degree of impact somewhat. I don't really care if its 21 on RAD nights instead of 18....I care how warm it is during the day and when it's precipitating. Don't get me wrong....I know it's warming, I'm not trying to steal anyone's climate change, but it's warming the most on clear nights and the days/stormy nights are most relevant to us.

I had some posts a while back that focused on the temperatures during the days that .25 of an inch or more of precipitation fell in NYC. No surprise the average temperatures on those days were only cold enough for 2 out of the last 7 winters during 2020s to make it to average to above average snowfall.

This is a function of both storm track and warming temperatures. The colder storm track day seasons were in 2020-2021 and 2025-2026.

2021-2022 made the list from ACY to ISP due to January 2022 being such an outstanding month for storms just east of the benchmark. So the batting average at ISP this decade is a little better at 3 out of 7 years reaching average to above average snowfall.

This is a departure from the 2010s when we managed to have average to above average seasonal snowfall even during some of the warmest winters like 2015-2016 and 2016-2017.  Those winters featured cold storm tracks.

Your Dave Kingman reference was a good one when I mentioned how we have become an all or nothing type snowfall climate around NYC Metro since the 1990s. Either big home runs or strikeouts. Very few seasons in the middle near average anymore these days relative to pre 1990s.

[Typhoon Tip]

I have a personal conjecture offering plausible explanation for the cold blob emergence.   

The NAO has been predominately positive since 2000.   That means increased occurrences of west wind in the SS stressing distribution.   There may in fact be an AMOC thing going on associated with CC... but, the anomalous amount of westerly wind/low level occurrences interacting with a region that's inherently covered by a very gossamer thermocline should really be explored as factoring in why that region is having trouble recovering from cold upwelling events, over time and aggregated,  taking place at large scales.

So, ... pretty simple idea really.  But here is the NOA's going back many decades.   There may in fact be some AMOC involved ..where if the AMOC is 'deflecting' S, due to more surface pooling in the super thermohaline circulation conditioning ( fluxing off Greenland of melt water...), then... introducing the westerly low level wind flux anomaly on balance, those two would certainly be easily and rightfully interpreted as a positive/constructive feed-back in cooling that region. 

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I have a personal conjecture offering plausible explanation for the cold blob emergence.   

The NAO has been predominately positive since 2000.   That means increased occurrences of west wind in the SS stressing distribution.   There may in fact be an AMOC thing going on associated with CC... but, the anomalous amount of westerly wind/low level occurrences interacting with a region that inherently covered by a very gossamer thermocline should really be explored as factoring in why that region is having trouble recovering from cold upwelling taking place at large scales.

So, ... pretty simply idea really.  But here is the NOA's going back many decades.   There may in fact be some AMOC involved ..where if the AMOC is 'deflecting' S, due to more surface pooling in the super thermohaline circulation conditioning ( fluxing off Greenland of melt water...), then... introducing the westerly low level wind flux anomaly on balance, those two would certainly be easily and rightfully interpreted as a positive/constructive feed-back in cooling that region. 

Yeah, I have posted several times on this. Recent studies have found the cold blob has been more a result of stronger winds than related to the AMOC. But it’s possible the +NAO could be a result of other circulation changes from the warming that the climate models haven’t become advanced enough to detect. 
 

 

 

 

Anthony Masiello @antmasiello.bsky.social

· 8mo

Natural variability, in low frequency states of atmospheric circulation, is becoming increasingly likely as the main explanation for the North Atlantic warming hole.

 

Sang-Ki Lee

 @sklee621.bsky.social

· 8mo

The Atlantic's warming hole is not a sign of the AMOC weakening, a new study suggests  ocean2climate.org/2025/11/12/t...

The Atlantic’s ‘Warming Hole’ Isn’t What You Think: 5 Surprising Truths From New Climate Research

This blog post and the “Deep Drive” podcast on a new paper “Atmosphere-driven processes in shaping long-term climate variability in Greenland and the broader subpolar North Atlant…

 

ocean2climate.org

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

[roardog]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

The EPAC TC train has left the station….

 

 

 

 

 

 

I feel like every time Bluewave makes a post about how the North American pattern doesn’t resemble a super Nino, snowman posts some tweets about how coupled the Nino is. It’s like some passive aggressive disagreement with Bluewave. lol

[snowman19]

12 minutes ago, roardog said:

I feel like every time Bluewave makes a post about how the North American pattern doesn’t resemble a super Nino, snowman posts some tweets about how coupled the Nino is. It’s like some passive aggressive disagreement with Bluewave. lol

Nope, not at all. As Ray @40/70 Benchmark already stated earlier, the tropics and subtropics/++PMM are very clearly in full blown strong El Niño mode. At no point was I disagreeing with bluewave about the extratropical North Pacific. 
 

Changing the subject to the discussion above, as far as the NAO, no way on God’s green earth do I think the NAO averages negative this winter (Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar) despite what some weenie accounts on twitter are saying. Super El Niño, descending solar activity off a big solar max, high geomag, +QBO….color me very, very skeptical of this big -NAO winter hype on social media

[LakePaste25]

The North Pacific is indeed the last quadrant to respond (possibly due to the arctic) but I think it wakes up to El Niño in due time. It is responding well everywhere else in the world (including the raging jet in the Southern Pacific). 

[snowman19]

38 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

The North Pacific is indeed the last quadrant to respond (possibly due to the arctic) but I think it wakes up to El Niño in due time. It is responding well everywhere else in the world (including the raging jet in the Southern Pacific). 

There has been a total collapse of the South Pacific High (“Anticyclone”). Something that hasn’t happened since 1997 and one of the main reasons for the inferno in region 1+2, along with the huge WWBs and DWKWs we’ve been seeing for months….

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Nope, not at all. As Ray @40/70 Benchmark already stated earlier, the tropics and subtropics/++PMM are very clearly in full blown strong El Niño mode. At no point was I disagreeing with bluewave about the extratropical North Pacific. 
 

Changing the subject to the discussion above, as far as the NAO, no way on God’s green earth do I think the NAO averages negative this winter (Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar) despite what some weenie accounts on twitter are saying. Super El Niño, descending solar activity off a big solar max, high geomag, +QBO….color me very, very skeptical of this big -NAO winter hype on social media

Yea, both can be true.....Nino is epic in the tropics, but we still have some MC competition in mid latitudes. 

[LakePaste25]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, both can be true.....Nino is epic in the tropics, but we still have some MC competition in mid latitudes. 

I must be missing something because I don’t see a ton of MC competition. I agree the N Pac is not exhibiting your typical response but I think it could be due to something else. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

I must be missing something because I don’t see a ton of MC competition. I agree the N Pac is not exhibiting your typical response but I think it could be due to something else. 

 

MJO isn't always the best tool because it doesn't show split forcing...check the Homollover (sp?)

Anyway, the ridging this month in the NE has not been El Niño like....sure, you could blame the lack of correlation in the summer, but most other developing intense Nino events did not have it, and this one is developing faster.

I think it's also important to mix in actual observations with the array or tools.

[LakePaste25]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

MJO isn't always the best tool because it doesn't show split forcing...check the Homollover (sp?)

Anyway, the ridging this month in the NE has not been El Niño like....sure, you could blame the lack of correlation in the summer, but most other developing intense Nino events did not have it, and this one is developing faster.

I think it's also important to mix in actual observations with the array or tools.

Yeah, I mean some of this is just noise from TCs. W pac basin was also active in 1997. Just not ready to blame it on this because nearly the entire N PAC basin has seen above normal heights outside the subtropics. We will see. I really want to see where we are at by September. It does seem TCs out there are forming a bit west of 1997. 

 

[LakePaste25]

Looking at past OLR, it looks closest to 1997…maybe a tad west. It does have that broad convective signature across the basin.

 

[snowman19]

Looking at past OLR, it looks closest to 1997…maybe a tad west. It does have that broad convective signature across the basin.
 

The 30C isotherm continues to be pushed further east of the dateline by the constant WWBs. It’s extremely likely that it gets pushed all the way to 140W by November like the models are showing, which would be record-breaking. The developing parade of typhoons are only going to enhance the westerlies/WWBs going forward. The warm pool east of the dateline has moved the downwelling Kelvin wave generation area to around the dateline to 165W. This means it will take less time for warm water to be transported into the EPAC, thus El Nino will grow very quickly from here on out. A record-breaking historic event is guaranteed at this point. I think we see forcing possibly set up the furthest east on record by late fall/winter. Here is a taste of what is to come on this side of the hemisphere with the STJ……

[bluewave]

The CONUS didn’t get the memo that it’s supposed to be having a cooler super El Niño summer.

We knew something was going to be different with the record heat that began to emerge back in May.

What if anything this says about the rest of the event remains to be seen. 
 

 

 

 

[GaWx]

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The CONUS didn’t get the memo that it’s supposed to be having a cooler super El Niño summer.

We knew something was going to be different with the record heat that began to emerge back in May.

What if anything this says about the rest of the event remains to be seen. 
 

 

 

 

Chris,

June-July 1991 also didn’t get the memo (Also, May of 1991 was very warm):

 

In addition, June-July of 1877 wasn’t cool.

[40/70 Benchmark]

54 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The CONUS didn’t get the memo that it’s supposed to be having a cooler super El Niño summer.

We knew something was going to be different with the record heat that began to emerge back in May.

What if anything this says about the rest of the event remains to be seen. 
 

 

 

 

Yea, all I need to see. This is what ultimately matters, so IMHO, you (collective) can shove all of the OLR, VP and MJO plots......we are having a cool ENSO July. Not what I want, but it is what it is.

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Chris,

June-July 1991 also didn’t get the memo (Also, May of 1991 was very warm):

 

In addition, June-July of 1877 wasn’t cool.

Another -PDO season.

[GaWx]

The current -SOI streak has now surpassed the 72 day streak of 1997 and is now at 74 days. Only 1998’s 100 days has been longer as far back as daily records go at Long-Paddock:

https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt

[40/70 Benchmark]

MJO was rather diffuse for the most part in July 1991, but notice the only appreciable amplitude was in the MC on the 7th-8th (phase 4) and...19th-22nd (phase 7)

https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

This July, we are also getting huge amplitude in phase 8, but doesn't seem to matter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Modern climate seems to have more of a disconnect between the mid latitudes and tropics, which would obviously impact the summer more, when the signals are weaker at baseline....perhaps this will change as we get into the fall given the magnitude of ENSO.

[LakePaste25]

CFS has a nice “back loaded idea” with the Canadian block becoming a -NAO later in the season. Take it with a grain of salt. IF (big if) you’re going to get anything out of this season, this would be the way to do it. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, LakePaste25 said:

CFS has a nice “back loaded idea” with the Canadian block becoming a -NAO later in the season. Take it with a grain of salt. IF (big if) you’re going to get anything out of this season, this would be the way to do it. 

 

Buy.

[LakePaste25]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

MJO was rather diffuse for the most part in July 1991, but notice the only appreciable amplitude was in the MC on the 7th-8th (phase 4) and...19th-22nd (phase 7)

https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

This July, we are also getting huge amplitude in phase 8, but doesn't seem to matter.

We will see. I’ll hold off until September because that’s when I would expect to start seeing some semblance of an Aleutian low.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

We will see. I’ll hold off until September because that’s when I would expect to start seeing some semblance of an Aleutian low.

Absolutely....basically what I am intimating. I am not discounting that at all.....just pointing out we aren't there yet.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Everything @snowman19is pointing out about the magnitude of this event is spot-on, which is why there is hope that the pattern over the N Hemisphere grows more redolent of warm ENSO as we approach boreal winter.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Chris,

June-July 1991 also didn’t get the memo (Also, May of 1991 was very warm):

 

In addition, June-July of 1877 wasn’t cool.

The -PDO/+AMO atmospheric pattern is the dominant player this summer so far across the CONUS.