2026-2027 Super El Nino

[snowman19]

Last year vs this year at this time, ENSO and the PMM stealing the show….
 

[Maestrobjwa]

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Just not too strong of a block...PLEASE!!!

Bruh I can't watch the deep south get pummeled again, lol Wonder if 72-73 had strong blocking that produced that snowstorm down there?

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Bruh I can't watch the deep south get pummeled again, lol Wonder if 72-73 had strong blocking that produced that snowstorm down there?

Moderate +NAO

1973  2  1  0.250
1973  2  2  0.252
1973  2  3  0.237
1973  2  4  0.525
1973  2  5  0.834
1973  2  6  0.944
1973  2  7  0.807
1973  2  8  0.672
1973  2  9  0.656
1973  2 10  0.718
1973  2 11  0.924

Moderate to strong +AO

1973  2  1  1.868
1973  2  2  1.709
1973  2  3  0.930
1973  2  4  0.511
1973  2  5  1.958
1973  2  6  2.915
1973  2  7  2.326
1973  2  8  1.437
1973  2  9  1.385
1973  2 10  1.560

Neutral to weak +PNA

1973  2  1  0.304
1973  2  2  0.161
1973  2  3  0.229
1973  2  4  0.295
1973  2  5  0.179
1973  2  6 -0.004
1973  2  7 -0.097
1973  2  8  0.154
1973  2  9  0.349
1973  2 10  0.166

 

Moderate to strong -EPO

1973 02 01   74.97
1973 02 02  -15.68
1973 02 03 -165.84
1973 02 04 -262.56
1973 02 05 -228.20
1973 02 06 -209.60
1973 02 07 -231.67
1973 02 08 -209.49
1973 02 09 -159.81
1973 02 10  -29.44

Neutral to weak +WPO

1973 02 01  247.35
1973 02 02  202.33
1973 02 03  119.68
1973 02 04   71.22
1973 02 05   36.31
1973 02 06    9.54
1973 02 07   -8.75
1973 02 08  -19.39
1973 02 09    0.37
1973 02 10   21.42

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Last year vs this year at this time, ENSO and the PMM stealing the show….
 

Thanks, Adam. Note how much the WPAC has cooled from Korean Pen. to E of Japan! Also, check out the impressive N Atlantic cooling! That ATL cooling along with cooling tropics (-AMO trend) may be indicative of a major pattern change toward colder E US winters coming up.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Ray, Good advice! I’m careful with potential bias of forecasts from any source, especially internet based looking for clicks or likes ($).

 This source is putting some emphasis on the cooling N Atlantic and AMO decline tendencies as an additional important factor to consider for especially the E US, something I haven’t seen a whole lot here and elsewhere (not specifically you though). So, this gives a different perspective (both Atlantic and Pacific influences) from most discussions I’ve seen with lots of support from both historic data and latest forecasts from 3 of the most widely followed seasonal models, none of which are warm this winter as a whole for the bulk of the E US. Also, note that this article from a European source also includes warm maps for the upcoming European winter.

Raindance has stated that -AMO could lead to a cold winter for the country.....I'm not saying there isn't any truth to that, it's just that that site tends to seeks out avenues to cold IMO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

It’s on discord now if you want the link ill dm it to you

Yes, thank you.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

That kind of SSTA orientation in the N. Atlantic right now favors a -NAO Winter. 

We are what, about 60% of the way through your May-Aug period?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Just not too strong of a block...PLEASE!!!

If I ever witness another Feb 2010, I'll go @snowman19

[mitchnick]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If I ever witness another Feb 2010, I'll go @snowman19

If I do, I'll let the good Lord he can take me now. Lol

[Maestrobjwa]

51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If I ever witness another Feb 2010, I'll go @snowman19

What? What was wrong with it? 

But oy that had to be painful for you guys. But don't worry y'all paid us back time tje following December, lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

What? What was wrong with it? 

But oy that had to be painful for you guys. But don't worry y'all paid us back time tje following December, lol

No....Boxing Day was very frustrating...it was an occluded, shredded mess....great banding was back in the tri- state area.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Just not too strong of a block...PLEASE!!!

I wouldn't worry about that lol. -NAO in Super Nino STJ is ideal. Question is if the Pacific will still respond to decadal +EPO/-PNA pattern. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We are what, about 60% of the way through your May-Aug period?

It's May-Sept. We are 42% of the way through. May was pretty neutral in N. Atlantic SSTA. Cold pool, -NAO orientation has only appeared in June and July. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's May-Sept. We are 42% of the way through. May was pretty neutral in N. Atlantic SSTA. Cold pool, -NAO orientation has only appeared in June and July. 

Yea, I just looked back at that section of my publication from last fall. I think if we hold it for another month, we should be good.

[Typhoon Tip]

Where do things stand now, relative to predictions?

ahead

behind

on time

[40/70 Benchmark]

Should be an interesting forecast for the polar domain this season....on the one hand, it looks pretty definitive that we at least aren't headed towards a strongly +NAO per the N ATL formula, which would be huge because that is game-over in an El Niño of this magnitude. On the other hand, we are now into the portion of the solar cycle that is very hostile to high latitude blocking. Descending solar 2-4 years removed from solar max is strongly supportive of +NAO as geomag peaks given the lag from solar flux. That said, my early solar analogs are not devoid of blocking, so my hunch continues to be some fun and games during the second half after a tepid first half. The key to increased confidence would be getting a -WPO (neutralish) signal, a la 1982...more on that later this season.

I will of course draft all of this out complete with visuals to elucidate my thoughts in vivid detail later this fall. If we can avoid a strongly +NAO/WPO, then we should be okay.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Where do things stand now, relative to predictions?

ahead

behind

on time

Some of the modeling may have rushed it a bit, but this El Niño is still ahead of any other on record.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Some of the modeling may have rushed it a bit, this El Niño is still ahead of any other on record.

Yeah, I should’ve said that

”in relation to the models”

I am aware of the climate timing.  I just am wondering what it means when the background state of the planetary oceans being so warm to begin with - this represents certain challenges … perhaps even for the Relative ONI

( I haven’t been paying much attention to this thread and very busy so apologies if this has been dragged through the coals already)

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think a strong -NAO signal from the North Atlantic would be a real feather in the cap of the 1957, 1965. 1986 camps....even 2009.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, I should’ve said that

”in relation to the models”

I am aware of the climate timing.  I just am wondering what the background state of the planetary oceans being so warm to begin with this is almost challenging for the Relative ONI

John, check out my update from last month.....really hits on what you are eluding to.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/06/forecast-intense-el-nino-potential.html

I think we are going to maintain about. a.5 delta between the ONI and RONI, which would continue to denote some MC competition with El Niño.....less so than 2023, but perhaps similar if not more than 2015. Guidance tries to push back against that idea, but I'll believe it when I see it....they have done a very poor job with that throughout the past decade, usually erroneously modding in favor of stock ENSO.

[Typhoon Tip]

Regard to these linear correlations… That’s backward incompatible then?
 

Seems that way

Descending solar would cancel out the very things the El Niño is positively correlated with…. Obviously not the absolute sense. Just sayn’
You only need two big blizzards to make a winner out of winter

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

John, check out my update from last month.....really hits on what you are eluding to.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/06/forecast-intense-el-nino-potential.html

I think we are going to maintain about. a.5 delta between the ONI and RONI, which would continue to denote some MC competition with El Niño.....less so than 2023, but perhaps similar if not more than 2015. Guidance tries to push back against that idea, but I'll believe it when I see it....they have done a very poor job with that throughout the past decade, usually erroneously modding in favor of stock ENSO.

Yeah, I’ll give it a read

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I wouldn't worry about that lol. -NAO in Super Nino STJ is ideal. Question is if the Pacific will still respond to decadal +EPO/-PNA pattern. 

-EPO/-WPO is usually tough to come by in super El Niño events.

[Typhoon Tip]

Well, I can tell you that would be in a destructive interference with El Niño, a +EPO/-PNA 

Not just correlation, but that’s actually demonstrated in a physical heat source and sink relationship with subsequent pattern forcing over the course of the northern hemisphere winter. 

I think the whole thing’s just entertaining as all get out… NOAA has a high probability now for a very strong warm ENSO event   I guess they reserve the superlatives.  But that’s happening on top of a recent global climate acceleration that we’re still probably going thru based upon simple observation of the empirical temperature channels 

It seems to me on a basic arithmetic and very clear and easy intuitive level… there’s gotta be some kind of pretty fantastic polar anomalies is going on or the former two factors working in constructive interference is going to massively massively disappoint the winter enthusiasts.  
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well, I can tell you that would be in a destructive interference with El Niño, a +EPO/-PNA 

Not just correlation, but that’s actually demonstrated in a physical heat source and sink relationship with subsequent pattern forcing over the course of the northern hemisphere winter. 

I think the whole thing just entertaining as all get out… NOAA has a high probability now for a very strong, warm mental event   I guess they reserve the superlatives.  But that’s happening on top of a recent global climate acceleration that we’re still probably involved going thru. 

It seems to me on a basic arithmetic and very clear and easy intuitive level… Those gotta be some kind of pretty fantastic polar anomalies is going on or the former two factors working in constructive interference is going to massively massively disappoint the winter enthusiasts.  
 

I don't think we are going to see wall-wall -PNA....

I agree the polar domain will be crucial.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This season will definitely average +PNA and probably safely so. I think we get an RNA month, it may be December.

[LakePaste25]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think we are going to see wall-wall -PNA....

I agree the polar domain will be crucial.

I’d argue against -PNA in general if we see less MC forcing. Even the extreme jet extensions under Eastern Pacific forcing are usually “bootleg” +PNA/+EPO as the Aleutian Low reaches the western US. Still mild for the NE. Then if forcing shifts back towards dateline, can get periods of +PNA/-EPO with actual cold air to work with.