2026-2027 Super El Nino

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I guess for those who want a cooler and snowy winter, root on for a -NAO to be the fly in the ointment for the robust el nino.

Even a -NAO -AO during a super El Niño can be warm with very little snow like we saw in January 1998. The issue was how strong the El Niño ridge was in the Great Lakes into the Northeast to the south of the block over Greenland. Also note that the forcing to the east of the Dateline didn’t help since it was so strong. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Even a -NAO -AO during a super El Niño can be warm with very little snow like we saw in January 1998. The issue is how strong the El Niño ridge was in the Great Lakes into the Northeast to the south of the main block over Greenland. Also note that the forcing moving to the east of the Dateline didn’t help since it was so strong. 

 

Never any guarantees with an El Niño that powerful, but we can all agree that we'll need some negative NAO to have an appreciable shot.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1957-1958 also had quite a bit of -NAO.....but Chris is correct to question how effective it would be today because even if the west warm pool relents, we still need to account for the exaggerated ridge and attenuated trough responses in our modern climate.

[snowman19]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Even a -NAO -AO during a super El Niño can be warm with very little snow like we saw in January 1998. The issue was how strong the El Niño ridge was in the Great Lakes into the Northeast to the south of the block over Greenland. Also note that the forcing to the east of the Dateline didn’t help since it was so strong. 

 

All the January, 1998 -NAO/-AO did was trap Pacific air underneath the blocks

[bluewave]

34 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said:

And it's worth noting it's not just really warm vs less warm. ECMWF seasonal shows genuine cool anomalies near the MC as part of that +IOD  along with the eastward leaning nino. I think if this roughly happens it really would kill the split forcing Bluewave is always talking about. Even further north the ECMWF seasonal is mostly breaking down the warm water in the west Pacific with what is a neutral to maybe slight +PDO look. This would be a genuine change from the last decade. And that's to say nothing of what still looks to be a marginally negative AMO. 

The December forecast map shows the +IOD becoming more neutral following the fall peak with the SSTs rebounding a bit near the Maritime Continent

So we’ll have to see how things verify once we get that far out in time. 

Also note the December forecast chart has warmer SSTs east of Japan and over the Atlantic. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

All the January, 1998 -NAO/-AO did was trap Pacific air underneath the blocks

WPO....it's usually + in these uber warm ENSO events, but 1982-1983 was negative....I could see us pulling that off again given the recent changes on the North Pacific. May be another notable difference between this year and 2023-2024.

[40/70 Benchmark]

They still haven't calculated the QBO since February. What an absolute nightmare this administration is.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Here's an interesting stat: 13 straight February's with +NAO (CPC). 10/13 have been >+1.00. For comparison, our last Winter month (DJFM) with any monthly NAO <-1.11 was Dec 2010. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

WPO....it's usually + in these uber warm ENSO events, but 1982-1983 was negative....I could see us pulling that off again given the recent changes on the North Pacific. May be another notable difference between this year and 2023-2024.

I'm really starting to miss the Daily Climate Composite maps, as current SSTA configurations could start giving us clues about the cold season NAO and WPO, and SLP maps over the Arctic, an indicator of cold season AO. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'm really starting to miss the Daily Climate Composite maps, as current SSTA configurations could start giving us clues about the cold season NAO and WPO, and SLP maps over the Arctic, an indicator of cold season AO. 

Tough for me to tell without monthly calculations, but it looks like 1957, 1982 and 2015 are good polar analogs.

[Yanksfan]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Nice write up. Been saying it, but in addition to the east-based super Nino, +IOD, maybe slightly +PDO and -AMO, the Copernicus suite is showing the 30C isotherm getting pushed all the way to 140W, which would be the first time it history, the previous record being 155W. If that actually happens, it would effectively end the “split forcing” that we saw in 2015-16 and 2023-34. IMO, given these basically non stop major WWBs and DWKWs since April, which look to continue, that entire equatorial WPAC/Indo warm pool gets sloshed/shunted east (finally)

That monster warm blob has caused nothing but havoc with winter in the past several years in the northeast and mid Atlantic. If it takes a super ElNino to slay it while wrecking this upcoming winter in the process, so be it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Tough for me to tell without monthly calculations, but it looks like 1957, 1982 and 2015 are good polar analogs.

1972 and 1982 best for solar and 2015 best for QBO.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Tough for me to tell without monthly calculations, but it looks like 1957, 1982 and 2015 are good polar analogs.

Since the Solar max in 2024, 3 straight Summers, or in this case early Summer, has had big time cold over the Arctic 60-90N relative to the global warming. I'm thinking that we are pretty close to 2024, 2025 so far. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1972 and 1982 best for solar and 2015 best for QBO.

Should be interesting to see how closely we follow 2015 when the QBO switches. I agree that it's the best ENSO/QBO combo. 23-24 and 72-73 look like good ENSO/PDO matches, although this one will probably be a stronger Nino. And of course 1997 is taking the lead in the subsurface. 

Next year we will start descending into more of a Solar Min. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Since the Solar max in 2024, 3 straight Summers, or in this case early Summer, has had big time cold over the Arctic 60-90N relative to the global warming. I'm thinking that we are pretty close to 2024, 2025 so far. 

I would take that. I'm thinking maybe one solid month of -NAO.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would take that. I'm thinking maybe one solid month of -NAO.

Might be another -AO vs +NAO type of scenario, but it's still early. Stronger El Nino going forward might disrupt the consistency over the Arctic, which is imo Solar related. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Anyone notice the JMA 2m temps for next winter?

interesting...

Looks Modoki.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Anyone notice the JMA 2m temps for next winter?

intersting...

Looks Modoki.

I think bluewave has pointed out the last major seasonal forecast hit was the JMA in 2013. I do have bad memories of the constant trough over the EC that seasonal models were showing in the Summer/Fall 2023 though. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

We had more MC influence in 2023 for an east-based pattern despite Modoki like SSTs, but I wonder if we don't end with more Modoki pattern this season despite SSTs looking east-based due to the warm pool being tugged eastward a bit.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think bluewave has pointed out the last major seasonal forecast hit was the JMA in 2013. I do have bad memories of the constant trough over the EC that seasonal models were showing in the Summer/Fall 2023 though. 

Yea, I know it's biased towards stock ENSO, but it makes sense to an extent if the warm pool does slosh east somewhat.

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Anyone notice the JMA 2m temps for next winter?

interesting...

Looks Modoki.

I think 95% of us MidAtl/Northeastern would take that all day--sold! Lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think bluewave has pointed out the last major seasonal forecast hit was the JMA in 2013. I do have bad memories of the constant trough over the EC that seasonal models were showing in the Summer/Fall 2023 though. 

June 2023 forecast looked pretty different.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I find it interesting that last year had an SST profile that mimicked a Modoki set up, but the competing MC influence combined with the +WPO ended up making the pattern look east based. Some of the guidance this year is implying that while the SST may look more east-based, the warm pooling pulling more eastward with potentially a more favorable WPO may result in a more Modoki pattern. Tricky how CC modifies these traditional relationships.

[40/70 Benchmark]

42 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Might be another -AO vs +NAO type of scenario, but it's still early. Stronger El Nino going forward might disrupt the consistency over the Arctic, which is imo Solar related. 

In the seasonal mean, sure....DJFM isn't averaging -NAO...not a huge leap of faith. But we just need one. month to average -NAO.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I find it interesting that last year had an SST profile that mimicked a Modoki set up, but the competing MC influence combined with the +WPO ended up making the pattern look east based. Some of the guidance this year is implying that while the SST may look more east-based, the warm pooling pulling more eastward with potentially a more favorable WPO may result in a more Modoki pattern. Tricky how CC modifies these traditional relationships.

I think we are the furthest thing from seeing west-based Nino patterns decadally, despite general warming in Nino 4. Another question is if the North Pacific High weakens this year. It's like a 5 std "PDO" vs 5 std east-based El Nino. Interesting! 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think we are the furthest thing from seeing west-based Nino patterns decadally, despite general warming in Nino 4. Another question is if the North Pacific High weakens this year. It's like a 5 std "PDO" vs 5 std east-based El Nino. Interesting! 

Yea, well....we did just see a 2013-2014 type of pattern last year, so who knows.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Another interesting thing will be the Feb-March PNA. This 9-year period is the most extreme anomaly for any 9-year period on records over the last 120 years. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

At some point, all of that warmth in region 4 is going to produce a Modoki season.