snowman19 Posted yesterday at 04:39 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:39 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted yesterday at 04:40 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:40 PM 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I know what you mean. 1957 and 1965 were very good here, but they were kind of borderline strong versus super. Yikes its pretty much the best ones here are the worst ones there and vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted yesterday at 04:53 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:53 PM 13 minutes ago, paulm said: We are starting to see guidance latch onto a highly anomalous ridge over Canada going into next weekend, which is a key part of the pattern we saw in May/June 2023 as well. It is plausible wildfire season could start to take off in Canada as a result. @bluewaveIs that you? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted yesterday at 04:55 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:55 PM 13 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Yikes its pretty much the best ones here are the worst ones there and vice versa. Yea, precipitation is the problem from your area into NNE....temps pretty near equally as correlated to snowfall here...close. Slight hedged towards precip from my area near the NH border and on up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted yesterday at 07:15 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:15 PM Even the new RONI projections are up to +3C now: ^ “Getting this sort of MJO-driven reinforcement of the developing #ElNiño with a massive westerly wind burst is a pretty good indicator that this event is going to be a very strong one. No sustained easterlies to interrupt the last Kelvin Wave, and this next WWB should push the warm pool even further east. Probably why even the *relative* SST anomalies are pushing 3-3.5C in some of the latest forecasts.” Check out this animated thermocline progression over the last month…..just wow: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted yesterday at 07:45 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:45 PM @Stormchaserchuck1 How's the May NAO index off Newoundland looking so far if you don't mind me asking? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted yesterday at 08:07 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:07 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted yesterday at 08:10 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 08:10 PM 25 minutes ago, mitchnick said: @Stormchaserchuck1 How's the May NAO index off Newoundland looking so far if you don't mind me asking? The CDC Daily climate composites page hasn't been working so I can't do exact measurements on the data is was based on, but the SSTA on Tropical Tidbits looks about Neutral so far, close to 0.0. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted yesterday at 08:22 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 08:22 PM I'd be careful going extreme on RONI Super Nino snowman19, we are little behind at this time of the year. Only 1991 had a May RONI of +0.5 and become Super but that was the lowest, the average per Super event later in the year was +0.8/yr in May. I think we are around 0.4-0.5, which is last place I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted yesterday at 08:36 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:36 PM 24 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I'd be careful going extreme on RONI Super Nino snowman19, we are little behind at this time of the year. Only 1991 had a May RONI of +0.5 and become Super but that was the lowest, the average per Super event later in the year was +0.8/yr in May. I think we are around 0.4-0.5, which is last place I think. We are +0.58 on today’s RONI (OISST) The CRW RONI is slightly warmer at +0.65C 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted yesterday at 08:52 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:52 PM 16 minutes ago, snowman19 said: We are +0.58 on today’s RONI (OISST) The CRW RONI is slightly warmer at +0.65C Plenty of gas in the tank out in the west pac and Nino 4 regions to go higher too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted yesterday at 09:22 PM Share Posted yesterday at 09:22 PM 13 hours ago, LakePaste25 said: Plenty of gas in the tank out in the west pac and Nino 4 regions to go higher too. IMO this Nino goes nuclear after this upcoming major WWB/ERW and subsequent (new) DWKW. It think that entire WPAC/Indo warm pool gets sloshed east by the end of this event @roardog Yes on the +PDO 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted yesterday at 09:25 PM Share Posted yesterday at 09:25 PM 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: IMO this Nino goes nuclear after this upcoming major WWB/ERW and subsequent (new) DWKW. It think that entire WPAC/Indo warm pool gets sloshed east by the end of this event Do you think we will flip to a +PDO this year? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago No PDO flip this year. If you call 1957/1958 spiking positive in the -PDO cycle prior as the same point as 2014/2015, we're around 1968 now. We're within a decade, as it's not exact, but I'd bet the PDO doesn't average positive for Nov-Apr. We're probably in something like 1965-66 El Nino strength at 1968 timing cyclically, which was a big El Nino about a decade from the +PDO flip. I'd expect continuing regression toward 0 and a month or two may poke above it, but Nov-Apr won't be over 0. AMO on the other hand...might be this year. Atlantic in May is night and day different to 2023. The colder water by NZ v. 2023 also bodes well for more typical El Nino conditions in the West. Cold/Colder AMO is a decent wet signal and cold signal in winter for a lot of the US. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said: Yep. El Nino standing wave. This upcoming WWB and follow up DWKW is going to be monstrous. And in other news, the models are getting more aggressive with a strong +IOD forming by this fall Wow, look at the WWB animation… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 4 hours ago Author Share Posted 4 hours ago 18 hours ago, raindancewx said: Decadal research through the 1900s shows that the AMO is correlated to SE ridge/trough patterns.-AMO ibb.co/bR3LvKW+AMO ibb.co/KctZCPm-AMO ibb.co/wKX4YCC+AMO ibb.co/sFSwm0j Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago Pretty interesting what continues to transpire in the North Pacific, despite El Nino I don't think we'll be getting a follow up-Strong La Nina anytime soon (years), there is an ebb and flow to the Pacific-ENSO pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted 51 minutes ago Share Posted 51 minutes ago 31 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Pretty interesting what continues to transpire in the North Pacific, despite El Nino I don't think we'll be getting a follow up-Strong La Nina anytime soon (years), there is an ebb and flow to the Pacific-ENSO pattern. Despite the twitter chatter about the atmosphere/ enso coupling, it sure doesn’t look like it in North America in early June if ensembles are correct. I wouldn’t be surprised if the MEI is still not very Nino. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 42 minutes ago Author Share Posted 42 minutes ago 8 minutes ago, roardog said: Despite the twitter chatter about the atmosphere/ enso coupling, it sure doesn’t look like it in North America in early June if ensembles are correct. I wouldn’t be surprised if the MEI is still not very Nino. They are just expressing what they think should happen. We continue to be in this mid latitude Hadley Cell expansion phase, despite El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 33 minutes ago Share Posted 33 minutes ago Yea, we normally see a raging STJ during a La Niña. Looks very Niña like!! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 22 minutes ago Author Share Posted 22 minutes ago This is what 1997 was like.. June is finally getting close with a Canadian ridge now showing up on medium-range models Edit: You could say May is pretty close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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