2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, roardog said:

Nino 4 is on fire again this year compared to 1997. I don’t know how anyone can say this is the most east based Nino since 1997 when Nino 4 is literally above +1 ONI. Nino 1+2 is warmer right now but it was in 2023 too. 

In mid May vs 2026:

-2023 was more E based

-2015 was similar

-1997 was more E based

-1991 and 1982 were more W based

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This event is very well coupled and looks much different than 2023. It’s also developing as the most east-based/EP El Niño since 1997
 

^“The low-frequency (or "background") El Niño circulation is really showing up in recent runs of subseasonal guidance, with anomalous rising motion forecast to set up and persist across the East-Central Pacific even as the MJO signal keeps moving.

The low-level response to this will be persistent westerly wind anomalies at low levels (helping the event to mature and grow to peak), and the upper level response will be increased westerly wind shear across the Western Hemisphere tropics due to outflow from the convection.

Really looks like a classic coupled strong El Niño event setting up, in contrast to something like 2023 which had a much more muted atmospheric response.”

 

 

 

 

I think this is the first time I have every genuinely hoped you were right.

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think this is the first time I have every genuinely hoped you were right.

Why?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Why?

A pure super El Nino would offer more hope for a wintry period than the warm/cool ENSO hybrid that we witnessed in 2023 and to a lesser extent, 2015....especially early in the season. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Either way, we are getting a pig ridge in Canada...but we can either have a trough in the southeast, or a cool ENSO like se ridge. This why my 2023 outlook was such a dud...I didn't get that back then.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

A pure super El Nino would offer more hope for a wintry period than the warm/cool ENSO hybrid that we witnessed in 2023 and to a lesser extent, 2015....especially early in the season. 

But if it's gonna be east-based, though...isn't that an automatic wall-to-wall torch like 97-98?

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

But if it's gonna be east-based, though...isn't that an automatic wall-to-wall torch like 97-98?

It's going to be a torch.....but we had some shots back then that just didn't pan out. If things were timed differently, we could have availed of some -NAO periods...hell, my area pulled off a great event as it was just prior to xmas.

Personally, I doubt it ends up as east-based as 1997...but if we don't cool the west Pacific off, then that would be even worse because it would mean MC competition as far as forcing. If we cool the west Pacific off and get a basin wide deal, then we have a shot at something.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

Nino 4 is on fire again this year compared to 1997. I don’t know how anyone can say this is the most east based Nino since 1997 when Nino 4 is literally above +1 ONI. Nino 1+2 is warmer right now but it was in 2023 too. 

You don’t know what you’re looking at that’s why you think there is no resemblance to 1997. Also, wishcasting

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

You don’t know what you’re looking at that’s why you think there is no resemblance to 1997. Also, wishcasting

He's not wishcasting if you read his posts, he expects competing MC forcing like 2023.

[michsnowfreak]

44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's going to be a torch.....but we had some shots back then that just didn't pan out. If things were timed differently, we could have availed of some -NAO periods...hell, my area pulled off a great event as it was just prior to xmas.

Personally, I doubt it ends up as east-based as 1997...but if we don't cool the west Pacific off, then that would be even worse because it would mean MC competition as far as forcing. If we cool the west Pacific off and get a basin wide deal, then we have a shot at something.

You thinking wall to Wall torch or torch periods? Im not sure on wall to wall.

If I had to rate the strong nino winters since 1972 from most to least desirable, I assume it ranks different than yours.

1991-92

1987-88

1972-73

2015-16

1997-98 & 2023-24 (tie)

1982-83

[Typhoon Tip]

Breakin' records and taken numbers

[LakePaste25]

50 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's going to be a torch.....but we had some shots back then that just didn't pan out. If things were timed differently, we could have availed of some -NAO periods...hell, my area pulled off a great event as it was just prior to xmas.

Personally, I doubt it ends up as east-based as 1997...but if we don't cool the west Pacific off, then that would be even worse because it would mean MC competition as far as forcing. If we cool the west Pacific off and get a basin wide deal, then we have a shot at something.

Yeah Dec ‘97 vs. ‘15 were night and day especially for the high elevations of NE. There is a difference between mild pacific air from a jet extension and mild pacific air from a jet extension + subtropical Gulf flow from the SE ridge. The former (‘97) is serviceable. 

[roardog]

46 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

You don’t know what you’re looking at that’s why you think there is no resemblance to 1997. Also, wishcasting

I never said that. If you think all that warm water around Nino 4 compared to 1997 doesn’t make a big difference with forcing then I guess we’ll just disagree. 

[roardog]

30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Breakin' records and taken numbers

For all I know this could be the rate the water flushes out of my toilet. I don’t even know what I’m looking at.