Stormchaserchuck1 Posted yesterday at 07:32 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 07:32 AM ENSO vs PNA VP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted yesterday at 07:41 AM Share Posted yesterday at 07:41 AM 20 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: That's what I am saying about 1997, Nino 4 has warmed a lot year-to-year since then. It will be interesting to see if it resembles west-based Nino characteristics or if the warming in Nino 4 is something else. Yeah, we had the split forcing in the 2023-2024 El Niño with the record warm pool near the Dateline and another center off of Mexico like we are currently seeing. The 1997-1998 El Niño had very east based forcing since Nino 4 was so much cooler. 2023-2024 was more of a full basin event rather than an east based one like 1997-1998. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted yesterday at 10:20 AM Share Posted yesterday at 10:20 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted yesterday at 10:37 AM Share Posted yesterday at 10:37 AM New JMA for regions 3 and 3.4 FWIW: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted yesterday at 01:17 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:17 PM mario ramirez super nino 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted yesterday at 01:23 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:23 PM 6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: mario ramirez super nino Your point? All he did was post the model run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted yesterday at 01:30 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:30 PM 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Your point? All he did was post the model run just messing. i agree that we're probably getting a super Nino this year 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted yesterday at 03:13 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:13 PM 9 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Where you been buddy? We miss you! Down about the MEI coming in lower? Be back now...hard at work on post season analysis. Just complete. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago The subsurface continues to boil…. The cold-biased CDAS for daily Nino 3.4 SSTs: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: OT, but just for awareness. A- on the outlook...one of my better efforts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago 14 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: That's what I am saying about 1997, Nino 4 has warmed a lot year-to-year since then. It will be interesting to see if it resembles west-based Nino characteristics or if the warming in Nino 4 is something else. I think it will depend on the RONI vs ONI relationship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think it will depend on the RONI vs ONI relationship. If these record-breaking traditional ONI projections of over +3C are correct and the RONI continues its trend of lagging the ONI by 0.5, 1982-83, which was the strongest super El Niño on the RONI (+2.5C) since 1950, would be the closest RONI analog. Again, assuming these ONI forecasts for over +3C are correct, we would easily tie, if not beat 82-83 on the RONI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: If these record-breaking traditional ONI projections of over +3C are correct and the RONI continues its trend of lagging the ONI by 0.5, 1982-83, which was the strongest super El Niño on the RONI (+2.5C) since 1950, would be the closest RONI analog. Again, assuming these ONI forecasts for over +3C are correct, we would easily tie, if not beat 82-83 on the RONI Only issue is that the RONI ls lagging the ONI by more this go-around, even though it is like to reach or exceed that absolute value of 1982. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 6 hours ago Author Share Posted 6 hours ago 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: If these record-breaking traditional ONI projections of over +3C are correct and the RONI continues its trend of lagging the ONI by 0.5, 1982-83, which was the strongest super El Niño on the RONI (+2.5C) since 1950, would be the closest RONI analog. Again, assuming these ONI forecasts for over +3C are correct, we would easily tie, if not beat 82-83 on the RONI Daily RONI is still below Weak Nino threshold of +0.5? Only 1991 had a May RONI +0.5 to become a Super Nino, all the others were averaging ~+0.8 by now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 28 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Daily RONI is still below Weak Nino threshold of +0.5? Only 1991 had a May RONI +0.5 to become a Super Nino, all the others were averaging ~+0.8 by now. My educated guess is that the current/daily RONI equivalent is ~+0.5 although like the ONI it is always moving, of course. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Daily RONI is still below Weak Nino threshold of +0.5? Only 1991 had a May RONI +0.5 to become a Super Nino, all the others were averaging ~+0.8 by now. Regardless of whatever has happened in the past, I don’t think this event will have any problem at all becoming a super El Niño on the RONI or the ONI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 5 hours ago Author Share Posted 5 hours ago It will probably go Super, I just don't think it will be an all time record breaking event on the RONI. Were also not seeing a +PNA, or -NPH in the next 15 days. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 39 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: It will probably go Super, I just don't think it will be an all time record breaking event on the RONI. Were also not seeing a +PNA, or -NPH in the next 15 days. My cool/wet summer for the great lakes will go up in flames unless we start seeing this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago get ready 2 torch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago ^ “#ElNiño is taking over the global atmosphere. We're gonna get a brief spat of trade winds over the East Pacific due to an Equatorial Rossby Wave, followed by another large WWB as the MJO traverses back into the Pacific. Models are showing low-frequency forcing setting up over the East/Central Pacific. Looking like a very strong, classic, coupled, canonical +ENSO event starting.“ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Were also not seeing a +PNA, or -NPH in the next 15 days. You can see the general outline of the May El Niño 500 mb composite taking shape with alterations probably due to the competing marine heatwaves. The coming near to record May heatwave forecast for the East next week is much warmer than we typically see with such strong developing El Niños. Stronger Southeast ridge could be a function of the weaker RONI relative to ONI and more general subtropical ridging adding a more Niña-like flavor to the mix. The May Western North America El Niño ridge is located a little further SW than usual with the weaker Baja trough than they typically see. May 4th to 11th strong Nino ridge in SW Canada and Aleutian low north of Hawaii Forecast May 18th to 25th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago ^The main correlation is in the NE Pacific and it doesn't look anything like it through the end of May. In June and July the ENSO-500mb correlation is weaker, but May is usually a pretty strong month, even with developing El Nino's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago June Nino 3.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 9 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 14 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Hasn't it kind of looked like this for 7 months for the most part with the coolness in the Lakes/NE and very warm in the west? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, FPizz said: Hasn't it kind of looked like this for 7 months for the most part with the coolness in the Lakes/NE and very warm in the west? March and April were warm in the east. March was +6 here at ERI and April was +5.1. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago CPC 3-4 Week forecast going with an El Nino precip pattern.. should be interesting to see if it verifies, it's been running dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted 45 minutes ago Share Posted 45 minutes ago 23 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said: March and April were warm in the east. March was +6 here at ERI and April was +5.1. Thanks. I thought predominantly from like Nov-Now minus like a 6 week break it wasnt like the map above. Carry on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now