2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

13 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Yep. 1972 was a good example of a -PDO super El Niño. The -PDO is going to have no limiting effect on this developing super El Niño thanks to the extreme ++PMM that’s in place. In fact, it’s not only helping to kill the trades, enhancing the warming, it’s also working to support the development of an east-based/EP event, as per the research I’ve already shared in this thread a couple of pages ago, explaining how a +PMM favors east-based/EP El Niños

Not much of a May PMM difference between Nino 4, 3.4 and 1.2 based later-in-the-year El Nino's. If anything it's probably strongest for Nino 4

[bluewave]

22 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

91-92 would have probably had a big global temperature jump if not for Pinatubo. It was the 3rd robust el nino in 10 years, and coming off the heels of a temperature jump from the 86-88 el nino.

But my guess is that if Pinatubo never happens, 97-98 still has a temperature jump, but not as drastic. 97-98 not only had the super el nino, but the exiting of a cooling period from a major volcano to enhance its temperature jump.

We had a smaller temperature rise with the 80s into early 90s El Niño events since we were just coming out of the cooler climate prior to 1980. 

The first global first significant temperature jump occurred in 1997-1998. Then the next one in 2015-2016. Followed by 2023-2024. 

We didn’t find out what the CRCs were until after the events. So it’s going to take some time to know how all the details following this event also. 
 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-66143-7

Climate regime shifts (CRSs), characterized by abrupt and persistent transitions between alternative stable states in the climate system, pose serious threats to ecosystems and human well-being. Understanding the potential drivers of CRSs is crucial, particularly in a warming world where CRSs are becoming more frequent. Here, using multiple observations and model simulations, we find that the likelihood of CRS occurrence significantly increases in the context of super El Niño events due to their remarkable climate perturbations. This higher probability is detected across various climate elements, such as surface air temperature, sea surface temperature, and surface soil moisture. In addition, we suggest that this boost effect of super El Niño events on CRSs will be greatly amplified under future greenhouse warming. Our findings underscore a deeper and more persistent climate footprint of super El Niño events, suggesting that early warnings and proactive measures are crucial for mitigating their escalating risks.

[snowman19]

9 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Not much of a May PMM difference between Nino 4, 3.4 and 1.2 based later-in-the-year El Nino's. If anything it's probably strongest for Nino 4

A recent (2025) research paper came up with this conclusion about +PMM El Niños: 

“A positive Pacific Meridional Mode (+PMM) acts as a crucial driver for developing eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events, particularly by facilitating wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback that warms the subtropical Northeast Pacific and promotes westerly wind anomalies at the equator. This interaction commonly triggers EP-type El Niño, characterized by peak warming in the eastern Pacific, as opposed to the Central Pacific (CP) type.”

Link to the research paper: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adv8621#:~:text=Other climate modes further complicate,and NPO%2C on ENSO evolution.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^Right, I'm just running all the data (73 years +events) and showing that in the data there isn't really a difference. 

[bluewave]

13 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Thats always "relevant" in his posts lol.

Just like the last 2 cold winters we had, global temps wont matter to most next winter, nor will how how strong the nino is. The sensible weather in anyones location is what most of us really care about. So as we get thru summer and towards Fall, it will be interesting to see what you, 40/70 and others who lack a strong bias and have a forecasting background start to think as the winter approaches. 

The sensible weather in any given location is a function of the global temperatures which sets the range of options. It’s why the CONUS winters have shifted so much warmer after 2014-2015 compared to before. 

This is why your area in the Great Lakes hasn’t been able to experience a repeat of the 2013-2014 winter following the big global temperature jump in 2015-2016.

Same for Central and Eastern PA not being able to experience a repeat of 1993-1994 benchmark for snow and record cold. Along with NYC Metro not seeing anything close to 1995-1996. It’s no coincidence that those two benchmark winters occurred before the first big temperature jump in 1997-1998.

The climate state from 1997-1998 to 2014-2015 also produced benchmark winters for Boston in 2014-2015 and DC to Philly in 2009-2010 which haven’t been able to be replicated.

Following the 2023-2024 temperature shift to warmer weather we experienced the #1 warmest winter and #2 warmest winter for the CONUS only two years ago apart.

Even a relatively small temperature shift to warmer in the 1980s hasn’t allowed a top 10 coldest CONUS winter to happen again like we had in the 1970s. 

So every temperature jump has resulted in some aspect of the prior climate not being able to occur in the new warmer one. 

But we usually have to wait until after one of these jumps to start observing which elements of the earlier climate state haven’t been carried forward into the newer one. 

 

 

[snowman19]

The new NMME is showing very strong coupling and a massive (El Nino) standing wave developing in June

[michsnowfreak]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

The sensible weather in any given location is a function of the global temperatures which sets the range of options. It’s why the CONUS winters have shifted so much warmer after 2014-2015 compared to before. 

This is why your area in the Great Lakes hasn’t been able to experience a repeat of the 2013-2014 winter following the big global temperature jump in 2015-2016.

Same for Central and Eastern PA not being able to experience a repeat of 1993-1994 benchmark for snow and record cold. Along with NYC Metro not seeing anything close to 1995-1996. It’s no coincidence that those two benchmark winters occurred before the first big temperature jump in 1997-1998.

The climate state from 1997-1998 to 2014-2015 also produced benchmark winters for Boston in 2014-2015 and DC to Philly in 2009-2010 which haven’t been able to be replicated.

Following the 2023-2024 temperature shift to warmer weather we experienced the #1 warmest winter and #2 warmest winter for the CONUS only two years ago apart.

Even a relatively small temperature shift to warmer in the 1980s hasn’t allowed a top 10 coldest CONUS winter to happen again like we had in the 1970s. 

So every temperature jump has resulted in some aspect of the prior climate not being able to occur in the new warmer one. 

But we usually have to wait until after one of these jumps to start observing which elements of the earlier climate state haven’t been carried forward into the newer one. 

 

 

Why would I expect a repeat of the most severe winter on record? The 2013-14 winter locally was unlike anything in the cimate record dating back to the 1870s. It steamrolled any of the vaunted '70s winters. No winter for at least the previous 140 years could match it, but the reason no winter in the 11 years since matched it is due to global temp rises? 

And regarding winter 2025-26 being 2nd warmest for the CONUS...that proves my point EXACTLY. It was a Winnipeg winter here. Constant cold, constant glittery snowpack, no huge storms. The worst thing it had going for it was that the cold suppressed the big storms. 99% if it was a warmer winter it would have yielded more snow. Normies called it a harsh or even brutal winter. Tell them "but it was 2nd warmest on record in the Conus". 

"Conus temps" really have been one of the hot topics ever since the eastern warm winter streak ended in 2023-24.

And BTW. I feel the same if its a colder conus winter but mild imby. Its all about my local weather (as it is for most weather enthusiasts).

[snowman19]

Still very good cross-model agreement on a high amplitude MJO wave pushing through the PAC come later this month. That is going to constructively interfere with El Niño and initiate another big WWB and DWKW and TC’s. June’s ENSO model runs should be very interesting…..

[LakePaste25]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Why would I expect a repeat of the most severe winter on record? The 2013-14 winter locally was unlike anything in the cimate record dating back to the 1870s. It steamrolled any of the vaunted '70s winters. No winter for at least the previous 140 years could match it, but the reason no winter in the 11 years since matched it is due to global temp rises? 

And regarding winter 2025-26 being 2nd warmest for the CONUS...that proves my point EXACTLY. It was a Winnipeg winter here. Constant cold, constant glittery snowpack, no huge storms. The worst thing it had going for it was that the cold suppressed the big storms. 99% if it was a warmer winter it would have yielded more snow. Normies called it a harsh or even brutal winter. Tell them "but it was 2nd warmest on record in the Conus". 

"Conus temps" really have been one of the hot topics ever since the eastern warm winter streak ended in 2023-24.

And BTW. I feel the same if its a colder conus winter but mild imby. Its all about my local weather (as it is for most weather enthusiasts).

Many of us like to look at global temperatures because it helps us understand expectations for the upcoming winter. If there’s far more warm anomalies than cold anomalies, it means our chances of landing on one of the cold anomalies is lower before you even factor in any favorable or unfavorable indices. Like playing a game of minesweeper and you’re adding more mines. 

[MJO812]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Why would I expect a repeat of the most severe winter on record? The 2013-14 winter locally was unlike anything in the cimate record dating back to the 1870s. It steamrolled any of the vaunted '70s winters. No winter for at least the previous 140 years could match it, but the reason no winter in the 11 years since matched it is due to global temp rises? 

And regarding winter 2025-26 being 2nd warmest for the CONUS...that proves my point EXACTLY. It was a Winnipeg winter here. Constant cold, constant glittery snowpack, no huge storms. The worst thing it had going for it was that the cold suppressed the big storms. 99% if it was a warmer winter it would have yielded more snow. Normies called it a harsh or even brutal winter. Tell them "but it was 2nd warmest on record in the Conus". 

"Conus temps" really have been one of the hot topics ever since the eastern warm winter streak ended in 2023-24.

And BTW. I feel the same if its a colder conus winter but mild imby. Its all about my local weather (as it is for most weather enthusiasts).

Doom and gloom forecasts

Just like how last winter was supposed to be mild and snowles. It was the coldest and snowiest winter in over a decade here in NYC. 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

48 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Many of us like to look at global temperatures because it helps us understand expectations for the upcoming winter. If there’s far more warm anomalies than cold anomalies, it means our chances of landing on one of the cold anomalies is lower before you even factor in any favorable or unfavorable indices. Like playing a game of minesweeper and you’re adding more mines. 

Can't we just accept it's warming ~0.1F a year and move on? The physics of meteorology is far more interesting. I responded to bluewave because it sounded like he was thinking the general warming would be a dominant-pattern causing thing. There is more high pressure with global warming, but there is still a lot of year to year variance. In 2025 we had more low pressure centers. In late August 2025, we actually set the record for lowest 500mb on record for the month for the Northern Hemisphere, and there were these cold 500mb anomalies setting up May-Sept 2024 too. I'm curious to see if this warm season has a relative spike of cold H5 like the last 2 years, or if that doesn't occur this year. 

[snowman19]

56 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Doom and gloom forecasts

Just like how last winter was supposed to be mild and snowles. It was the coldest and snowiest winter in over a decade here in NYC. 

 

Not one person made a winter forecast on here not a single one. How dare we discuss a potential historic El Niño event in a dedicated ENSO thread. This shit is the reason why people like Isotherm, HM and a few others don’t post on here anymore. The weenies crying that someone is trying to take their cold and snow away. It’s fucking pathetic. Grow the fuck up

[michsnowfreak]

46 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Not one person made a winter forecast on here not a single one. How dare we discuss a potential historic El Niño event in a dedicated ENSO thread. This shit is the reason why people like Isotherm, HM and a few others don’t post on here anymore. The weenies crying that someone is trying to take their cold and snow away. It’s fucking pathetic. Grow the fuck up

It's no more pathetic than having a constant warm bias. Anthonys response originated from bluewave literally saying the reason all time historic winters havent been broken the past decade is a warming globe. Thats an insane position. So we're supposed to get the most severe winter on record every decade then topple it the next decade? Some of the things that were said in these enso threads the past few years were absolutely ridiculous and proven immediately untrue the following winters, whether you want to call it a forecast or not. The bias in general is why SO many people dont post here anymore. 

[michsnowfreak]

53 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Can't we just accept it's warming ~0.1F a year and move on? The physics of meteorology is far more interesting. I responded to bluewave because it sounded like he was thinking the general warming would be a dominant-pattern causing thing. There is more high pressure with global warming, but there is still a lot of year to year variance. In 2025 we had more low pressure centers. In late August 2025, we actually set the record for lowest 500mb on record for the month for the Northern Hemisphere, and there were these cold 500mb anomalies setting up May-Sept 2024 too. I'm curious to see if this warm season has a relative spike of cold H5 like the last 2 years, or if that doesn't occur this year. 

Agree. The physics of meteorology are fascinating and often completely lost in these threads by some. 

[GaWx]

It’s no secret that I’ve never been a fan of human bias of any kind (for something, against something, etc.) affecting the content and tone of communication, but unfortunately that’s human nature to an extent. I think it’s best to talk about things going on whether you like that they’re occurring or not rather than talking only about things you like.

[jaxjagman]

Just now, jaxjagman said:

I agree with this.But the WWB seems to be kicking off by which seems to be by ERW,plus probably the MJO you mentioned.These Roosby Waves in the WP have had a hard time getting past the EIDL because they encounter easterlies,they never have gotten very far as being modeled.Least this seems different this time ATM

 

[snowman19]

[bluewave]

17 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Why would I expect a repeat of the most severe winter on record? The 2013-14 winter locally was unlike anything in the cimate record dating back to the 1870s. It steamrolled any of the vaunted '70s winters. No winter for at least the previous 140 years could match it, but the reason no winter in the 11 years since matched it is due to global temp rises? 

And regarding winter 2025-26 being 2nd warmest for the CONUS...that proves my point EXACTLY. It was a Winnipeg winter here. Constant cold, constant glittery snowpack, no huge storms. The worst thing it had going for it was that the cold suppressed the big storms. 99% if it was a warmer winter it would have yielded more snow. Normies called it a harsh or even brutal winter. Tell them "but it was 2nd warmest on record in the Conus". 

"Conus temps" really have been one of the hot topics ever since the eastern warm winter streak ended in 2023-24.

And BTW. I feel the same if it’s a colder conus winter but mild imby. It’s all about my local weather (as it is for most weather enthusiasts).

 

Your local area has just finished the warmest 11 year stretch of winters into March following the big warmer shift in 2015-2016. Since the winters have still averaged below freezing, it still feels cold. But just not as cold as it had been in the past.

So every local area has been affected to varying degrees by this warmer shift. This is why global and national temperatures are important since it shapes which will be felt locally. 

Places closer to the East Coast that have seen their averages climb to the mid to upper 30s over this period have definitely have felt warmer. It’s why this past winter felt so cold.

This winter would have been closer to average in the old days. But relative to the post post 2014-2015 period it felt much colder even though many areas saw no record cold this past winter. It was great to see a return of the benchmark snowstorm tracks which had been absent for the past 3 seasons. 

The Detroit average 11 winter temperature through 2026 is 30.3°. The previous warmest 11 year stretch had been 28.9° ending in 1957. The earlier arrival of spring over this period resulted a 32.6° December through March average vs the previous highest 31.0° max in 2007.

The biggest benefit of these warmer run of winters has been in the lake effect snow favored areas like Marquette. Warmer falls into winters boosted the Great Lakes temperatures and slowed the arrival of ice. So a great set up if you are a big lake effect snow fan.

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

A little dip the past 2 days

+1.4 over the past 3 months though puts us at +2.0 by mid August if the trend holds consistent

[bluewave]

15 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Doom and gloom forecasts

Just like how last winter was supposed to be mild and snowles. It was the coldest and snowiest winter in over a decade here in NYC. 

 

If you were following the seasonal forecasts last November, then you would have seen the ones keying in on the early stratospheric warming and easterly QBO influence warming were on the right track.

But it took about 3 months to finally deliver the big KU event. Would have been nice if we didn’t have to wait 11 years for a both cold and snowy winter in what has become a sea of warm. 
 

https://opensnow.com/news/post/november-update-2025-2026-winter-forecast-preview

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

A little dip the past 2 days

+1.4 over the past 3 months though puts us at +2.0 by mid August if the trend holds consistent

Agree. We are very likely to be into a super El Niño (over +2.0C) by September, if not August

 

 

 

 

[snowman19]