2026-2027 Strong El Nino

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I haven't see any literature supporting a 2-3 month lag.

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You probably won’t find much literature related to the Northern Stream intensity across the NP following SSWs since it’s a bit of a niche topic.

Plus this stronger Northern Stream only emerged since 2018-2019 and might be to short of an interval to gain much interest for research. 
 

 

I'm going to make up stuff too and then say you wont find much (probably because its bunk).

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I'm going to make up stuff too and then say you wont find much (probably because its bunk).

Well, everything was initially "bunk", until it wasn't. I have no issue with it, as long the presenter is transparent about it. He admitted it's a pioneer concept, but that doesn't necessarily mean that it's incorrect.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I have learned the hard way to not mock alternative viewpoints. I know I teased Chuck about the Cool ENSO following strong El Nino push back, but that was just because the data is supportive of it right now. He could ultimately be right, but we will need to confirm that posthumously...hence my sarcasm.

[bluewave]

34 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I'm going to make up stuff too and then say you wont find much (probably because it’s bunk).

You still haven’t apologized for your fake criticism of my guess that NYC, LGA, and JFK would struggle to reach 50” of snow which I made several years back.

[MarcmmKU]

11 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Hmm while im not as familiar with east coast climate, that seems pretty much impossible to get a total shutout in new England. Shitty compard to climo, yes, but shutout or even close, never. Im in SE Michigan, i turn 43 next week and the least snowy winter Detroit has recorded during my lifetime was 23.4" in 1997-98. 2023-24 was right there at 23.5". Go north in Michigan and snow towns were calling 2023-24 with its 60, 80, 100" a "non-winter". So all of this worry about the worst case scenarios is STILL relative to one's climo. 

Even IF its a strong or super nino, many other factors come into play too. So I can say with 100% confidence that any area north of NYC will not be shutout.

Yeah "shutout" is relative. If Stowe VT gets, say 80" in a winter, that's considered a shutout for them. I would consider 2015-2016 basically a shutout for the new england.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

I think when you look at December 2015 alone, it was an anomalous configuration for a super Nino. The lack of a strong southern stream in the SE US allowed storms to cut, so you had both this bad combo of a pac jet extension to the west coast combined with a Nina-like SE ridge configuration. Compare this to December 1997 where you have a strong southern stream extending all the way across the southern US, which is the more canonical Nino outcome. Just giving 1 example of how we can do better than 15-16. 

 

December 2015 was unique since it was the first time we had a strong MJO 5 with a super El Niño due to the record WPAC warm pool up until that time for such a strong El Niño. 

So those two forces combining created the historic +13 December which was warmer than many Novembers were around NYC.

Luckily, a great blocking pattern emerged leading to the historic snow event around NYC in late January. Plus NYC had their first below 0° reading since 1994 on Valentine’s Day.

We had continuation of this much stronger WPAC warm pool theme for the 2023-2024 event. But more spread out winter warmth across the season than one month being some much warmer than the others like in 2015-2016.

No great blocking pattern in 2023-2024 so the seasonal snowfall was a disappointment for many. With the strongest MJO 4-7 activity in January and February. This was the 2nd time that such a strong El Niño had robust MJO activity in this region due to how far west the record +30 C warm pool extended in the Pacific.

 https://phys.org/news/2021-04-distinctive-mjo-super-el-nino.html#:~:text=Observations show that the western,MJO-related convection was enhanced.

Observations show that the western Pacific MJO activity was strongly suppressed during the peak phase of the 1982/83 and 1997/98 super El Niño events. However, during the crest of the 2015/16 super El Niño event, western Pacific MJO-related convection was enhanced.

When compared to the previous super El Niño events, the warm SST anomaly, or change from average, of the 2015/16 El Niño was located more westward than during the other two extreme seasons. Additionally, no significant cold SST anomaly was detected in the western Pacific. Accordingly, the moisture and air temperature tended to increase in the central-western Pacific during the winter of 2015/16 unlike the previous super El Niño events.

[roardog]

I would think Nino 4 being so warm in recent Ninos results in different pattern outcomes as the forcing would be altered compared to your traditional cool Nino 4 strong El Niño. This is why I’m not sure a replica of 97-98 is necessarily on the way. That doesn’t mean it would be a good winter but I think just that fact alone is important unless of course it cools off by then. 

[snowman19]

The new CANSIPS…just started playing catch up:
 

 

You don’t get better ocean/atmosphere coupling (Bjerknes feedback) than this:

 

 

[roardog]

59 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The new CANSIPS…just started playing catch up:
 

 

You don’t get better ocean/atmosphere coupling (Bjerknes feedback) than this:

 

 

I know you believe a super Nino is coming. What is your forecast? Give a range of what you think the peak will be for fun.  FYI. I read today that Bastardi thinks it will be a top 5 Nino. It looks like you’re agreeing with him. 

[LakePaste25]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

I would think Nino 4 being so warm in recent Ninos results in different pattern outcomes as the forcing would be altered compared to your traditional cool Nino 4 strong El Niño. This is why I’m not sure a replica of 97-98 is necessarily on the way. That doesn’t mean it would be a good winter but I think just that fact alone is important unless of course it cools off by then. 

Even if a 97-98 SSTA replica was on the way, I would still predict a pacific jet dominated winter with potential for 1-2 big coastal or SE snowstorms later in the winter. These are individual big ticket events that cannot be predicted months, or even several weeks in advance. 

[MarcmmKU]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

You still haven’t apologized for your fake criticism of my guess that NYC, LGA, and JFK would struggle to reach 50” of snow which I made several years back.

EWR cleared 50". Central park had some dubious measurements, especially with the December storms, and they stopped measuring after 9 am during the February KU when some of the heaviest rates of the storm occured... Wouldn't be surprised if they also easily cleared 50" of snow. 

[bluewave]

47 minutes ago, MarcmmKU said:

EWR cleared 50". Central park had some dubious measurements, especially with the December storms, and they stopped measuring after 9 am during the February KU when some of the heaviest rates of the storm occured... Wouldn't be surprised if they also easily cleared 50" of snow. 

NYC was very close to JFK and LGA in staying under 50”. So even if there was a small undermeasurement, it would have been closer to 45” and not 50”.

For NYC along with JFK and LGA they need a winter average temperature near 32.0° or lower just to have a chance at a 50” season. While it’s necessary, it’s not always sufficient. That’s what happened this season.

ISP was able to have a 50”+season in 2017-2018 without NYC, JFK, and LGA averaging near freezing. Same for EWR coming closer to 50” in 2020-2021 than other local stations during another milder than average winter. 

ISP and EWR tend to get heavier snowfall totals than NYC, JFK and LGA, due to the best banding often setting up just west of the Hudson and out across Long Island.

It’s on rare occasions like January 2016 and February 2006 that the jackpot band sets up directly over or near NYC, JFK, and LGA. 

So this was the first winter in 11 years that NYC averaged near 32° as the winters have warmed so much after the 2015-2016 global temperature baseline jump. It’s uncertain when the next one will occur. Since the challenge for NYC to reach 50” arises from a shrinking pool of winters near 32° as the climate warms. But I think that there could be a small chance that it could happen. 
 

NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	45.6
CT	GUILFORD CENTER 2.7 WSW	CoCoRaHS	45.5
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	45.4
NY	AMITYVILLE 0.6 NNE	CoCoRaHS	45.4
NY	BELLMORE 0.9 SSE	CoCoRaHS	45.1
NJ	WEST MILFORD TWP 2.5 SSE	CoCoRaHS	45.0
NJ	PALISADES PARK 0.2 WNW	CoCoRaHS	44.9
NJ	NEW PROVIDENCE 0.8 ESE	CoCoRaHS	44.8
CT	MYSTIC 0.9 W	CoCoRaHS	43.9
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	43.4
NY	CORNWALL ON HUDSON 0.6 NNW	CoCoRaHS	43.1
NY	LINDENHURST 1.0 NE	CoCoRaHS	43.1