2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

That's not what Euro site shows.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202611010000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202612140000

The map above is the Euro Weeklies Control run, not the averaged weeklies.

[roardog]

12 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

The map above is the Euro Weeklies Control run, not the averaged weeklies.

Yeah. I’m not sure a 912 hour control run is worth posting about and discussing. lol

[jaxjagman]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Weeklies favorable?

Maybe its right,the Siberuian HIgh is getting broke down the next several days,this causes some significant colder intrusions in East Asia when its posistive,in a negative phase you see height rises in East China through Japan,should warm up before before Thanksgiving,but not really sure its to an extreme of what Social media is calling for in Nov as being so warm

[michsnowfreak]

15 minutes ago, roardog said:

Yeah. I’m not sure a 912 hour control run is worth posting about and discussing. lol

Agree. Think of it as the OP Euro at 912 hours lol.

[mitchnick]

51 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

The map above is the Euro Weeklies Control run, not the averaged weeklies.

That certainly explains it. The Control runs are 95%+ of the time garbage.

EDIT: They didn't say it was the Control run, but the "weeklies". If they're going to say it's the weeklies, they need to include weeklies Control run. Pretty disingenuous if you ask me.

[GaWx]

 I have to give credit where credit is due. After nearly 4 hours, every post ITT including this one has been about a random way, way out in super lala land Euro control map. That has to be a record for an hour 912 map! That’s one amazing map to command this much attention! 
 
 On a related note, Happy go back to Standard Time day! I love it for getting Euro Weeklies, 0Z Euro, and all models an hour earlier more than for anything else! I mean we’re only 3 hours from the start of the 0Z GFS!

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I have to give credit where credit is due. After nearly 4 hours, every post ITT including this one has been about a random way, way out in super lala land Euro control map. That has to be a record for an hour 912 map! That’s one amazing map to command this much attention! 
 
 On a related note, Happy go back to Standard Time day! I love it for getting Euro Weeklies, 0Z Euro, and all models an hour earlier more than for anything else! I mean we’re only 3 hours from the start of the 0Z GFS!

Amen brother, Amen!

[SnowenOutThere]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 I have to give credit where credit is due. After nearly 4 hours, every post ITT including this one has been about a random way, way out in super lala land Euro control map. That has to be a record for an hour 912 map! That’s one amazing map to command this much attention! 
 
 On a related note, Happy go back to Standard Time day! I love it for getting Euro Weeklies, 0Z Euro, and all models an hour earlier more than for anything else! I mean we’re only 3 hours from the start of the 0Z GFS!

Wondered into this thread and if we're talking about the AI slop map MJO posted from Facebook then lowk it isnt even a good snow pattern. It is a cold pattern but the trough axis would be too far east to do anyone any good. You'd either get suppression based on the height lines or you would get storms which bomb out over the Atlantic ocean. You need the ULL to be behind (west) the baroclinic boundary of the gulf stream to get cyclogenesis favorable for east coast storms. 

[GaWx]

18 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Wondered into this thread and if we're talking about the AI slop map MJO posted from Facebook then lowk it isnt even a good snow pattern. It is a cold pattern but the trough axis would be too far east to do anyone any good. You'd either get suppression based on the height lines or you would get storms which bomb out over the Atlantic ocean. You need the ULL to be behind (west) the baroclinic boundary of the gulf stream to get cyclogenesis favorable for east coast storms. 

Thanks and, indeed, that’s what we all are still talking about.
 I understand why you say it isn’t good for most, but is there a chance this would give Cape Cod a nice snowstorm?

[jaxjagman]

The SH breaking down you probably should expect a big ridge into Mongolia tho it seems to be just brief,still tho it shouldnt be that warm as being portrayed as some people are thinking into Nov

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, bluewave said:

My focus has been on how much warmer each of the months since May have been exceeding the seasonal long range model forecasts and past developing super El Niño events.

We all know with super El Niños is that it only takes one well timed storm with just enough cold to snow to make a late season snowstorm.

1997-1998 was a weaker east based event featuring no MC forcing. We had a very active East Coast storm track. Many lows hugged the East Coast. Several lows also tracked out near the Benchmark.

But the very powerful EPAC vortex and STJ never really allowed high pressure to become established long enough over the Northeast. So places like NYC Metro saw many rainstorms and very little snow through DJF.

It was actually March which delivered the best snow of the season. But March into even early April during the 1990s was much colder and snowier than the 2020s.  March snowfall through the first 6 years of the 2020s is at record lows for any 6 year period on record.

So in order to out some snow points on the board around NYC Metro, we would want to do it before we get into March which has become so much warmer this decade. 

Let’s see what happens. But we would need to get an 

Yea, it was tougher sledding down there, no pun intended....but we saw well over a foot just prior to xmas up here. I agree with most of what you say, but I just think there will be a bit more of a window this season than you do. We are probably pretty close on mean temp departure for the season, though.