2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

We know the impacts of weaker Ninos and it isnt good for winter lovers. They're all very warm. The effects will be amplified. 

I assume this is a typo.....

[Typhoon Tip]

35 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I suspect that this is how things will play out. Historic experience with strong El Niño events, flood of Pacific air into North America, seasonal timing of the SSW (anecdotally, it seems that the polar vortex is able to recover more quickly with earlier SSW events, possibly due to the seasonal transition; during mid-winter one is dealing with a more stable regime). Moreover, the El Niño event continues to strengthen.

 

Not directed at you Don, just in general.. 

I wish the scientific ambit would elect to place a "P" on SSW as a suffix, for/if/when an intrusion of warming into the PV/stratospheric pressure coordinates is proven ( crucially ) to be a downward "P"ropagating event.  

There is a life cycle to the SSW --> -AO, that requires some 20 to 30 days to complete.  Whether this is that, or just an intrusion that quickly disappears ... still remains to be seen. 

This needs to be factored into this "suspected" intrusion event and I'm not reading anywhere, in or outside this social media ... like that is in the gears of reasoning.   

First of all, the AO is progged currently at CPC to go ~ -.75 SD over this next week.   There is no antecedent SSW/propagating downward phenomenon prior to that occurring.  Should this 10 mb warm node and any vortex collapse become resonate ( downward radiating through the vortex) .... your looking at the end of November before any AO mode response - when considering the proven total SSW phenology.   

I just suspect that SSW is being blurred in the proper usage of why Sudden Stratospheric Warming was originally identified.  Since there are intrusion events that don't down well, yeah... technically it's a warming in the stratosphere that is/was rather expedient in how it manifested.   But semantically... and really machine wise, if you want an SSW to correlate to winter at mid latitude, it has to go thru 20+ day downward evolution, then the -AO happens. And I still don't see that very convincingly modeled in the GFS.       

What I do see occurring is both aft of present and continuing in the models, a warmer than normal static 70 to 100 hPa level state.  I'm willing to hunch pretty heavily that it's CC related... This looks more like a pan-dimensional aspect than an intrusion - aside from the fact that it's emerging from the bottom up.  As well, it is/has vastly predated(s) the canonical 'disruption season'.    

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

At this point all we are discussing are potential futures. The antecedent CONUS May through October warmth and the intensity of the ENSO SST warming has been the highest on record for a developing super El Niño.

So should this continue through the winter, it raises the potential for a warmer outcome averaged out through DJF than 1997-1998, 2015-2016, and 2023-2024.

There also could be monthly variability in terms of the where the warmest departures and strongest 500 mb ridging become established which deviate in ways from those years. 

So month to month comparisons may vary from those years with the sum total of the DJF average 90 day warmth exceeding those years.

We probably won’t know for sure the specific details outcome for each individual month until those months are underway. 

Also note that the seasonal forecast models from a month or more out significantly missed the magnitude of the warmth. Even forecasts issued during the first week of the month were often too cool. 

 

On a national level, of course given the background warming in conjunction with how much OHC has built up to trigger this unprecedented El Niño, but I'm not concerned with that....no one in their right mind is disputing the notion of a very mild season in the DJFM seasonal mean. I don't think the folks like bviking, who laugh at each one of my insights, have really wrapped their minds around what I am saying. What I am focused on is that the prospects for a large east coast winter storm should be heightened relative to 2023 and probably even 2015 given the absence of MC convective forcing. Yes, this season is more east-based than 2015....but it's also less MC-based, as well. You can't obsess over the background warming and neglect the implications of having absolutely no convection in the MC because it means that source of destructive interference for major east coast cyclogenesis is removed during those fleeting colder intervals. I feel as though you are playing with fire if you disregard the prospects for any major winter weather along the east coast with a STJ that potent in conjunction with all CP and EP forcing....the reality is that ALL THREE of this seasons produced snowfalls of well over a foot on the CP of SNE, and 2/3 had substantial MC contribution, so I think folks need to cool it with the group think philosophy and pry open their minds a bit.

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not directed at you Don, just in general.. 

I wish the scientific ambit would elect to place a "P" on SSW as a suffix, for/if/when an intrusion of warming into the PV/stratospheric pressure coordinates is proven ( crucially ) to be a downward "P"ropagating event.  

There is a life cycle to the SSW --> -AO, that requires some 20 to 30 days to complete.  Whether this is that, or just an intrusion that quickly disappears ... still remains to be seen. 

This needs to be factored into this "suspected" intrusion event and I'm not reading anywhere, in or outside this social media ... like that is in the gears of reasoning.   

First of all, the AO is progged currently at CPC to go ~ -.75 SD over this next week.   There is no antecedent SSW/propagating downward phenomenon prior to that occurring.  Should this 10 mb warm node and any vortex collapse become resonate ( downward radiating through the vortex) .... your looking at the end of November before any AO mode response - when considering the proven total SSW phenology.   

I just suspect that SSW is being blurred in the proper usage of why Sudden Stratospheric Warming was originally identified.  Since there are intrusion events that don't down well, yeah... technically it's a warming in the stratosphere that is/was rather expedient in how it manifested.   But semantically... and really machine wise, if you want an SSW to correlate to winter at mid latitude, it has to go thru 20+ day downward evolution, then the -AO happens. And I still don't see that very convincingly modeled in the GFS.       

What I do see occurring is both aft of present and continuing in the models, a warmer than normal static 70 to 100 hPa level state.  I'm willing to hunch pretty heavily that it's CC related... This looks more like a pan-dimensional aspect than an intrusion - aside from the fact that it's emerging from the bottom up.  As well, it is/has vastly predated(s) the canonical 'disruption season'.    

 

We have talked about this and it's the recent why I am employing the "reversal" terminology moving forward, rather than SSW to avoid these scientific inconsistencies.

[GaWx]

28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not directed at you Don, just in general.. 

I wish the scientific ambit would elect to place a "P" on SSW as a suffix, for/if/when an intrusion of warming into the PV/stratospheric pressure coordinates is proven ( crucially ) to be a downward "P"ropagating event.  

There is a life cycle to the SSW --> -AO, that requires some 20 to 30 days to complete.  Whether this is that, or just an intrusion that quickly disappears ... still remains to be seen. 

This needs to be factored into this "suspected" intrusion event and I'm not reading anywhere, in or outside this social media ... like that is in the gears of reasoning.   

First of all, the AO is progged currently at CPC to go ~ -.75 SD over this next week.   There is no antecedent SSW/propagating downward phenomenon prior to that occurring.  Should this 10 mb warm node and any vortex collapse become resonate ( downward radiating through the vortex) .... your looking at the end of November before any AO mode response - when considering the proven total SSW phenology.   

I just suspect that SSW is being blurred in the proper usage of why Sudden Stratospheric Warming was originally identified.  Since there are intrusion events that don't down well, yeah... technically it's a warming in the stratosphere that is/was rather expedient in how it manifested.   But semantically... and really machine wise, if you want an SSW to correlate to winter at mid latitude, it has to go thru 20+ day downward evolution, then the -AO happens. And I still don't see that very convincingly modeled in the GFS.       

What I do see occurring is both aft of present and continuing in the models, a warmer than normal static 70 to 100 hPa level state.  I'm willing to hunch pretty heavily that it's CC related... This looks more like a pan-dimensional aspect than an intrusion - aside from the fact that it's emerging from the bottom up.  As well, it is/has vastly predated(s) the canonical 'disruption season'.    

 

 Despite the historical earliest SSW and accompanying historically weak early Nov 10 hPa/60N winds, the 60-90N 10 hPa avg temp. is only going to rise ~5C and stay well below the record warmest for early Nov. So, it’s a mixed bag of sorts.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Your area will still see plenty of snow. You got the lakes .

Lake effect is a function of Arctic air moving over the warm lakes. With a flood of pacific air lake effect is shut off. One thing the warm air should do is prevent cooling and ice formation. If we do see Arctic intrusions later in the season lake effect would be on the table and later then climatology.


.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Lake effect is a function of Arctic air moving over the warm lakes. With a flood of pacific air lake effect is shut off. One thing the warm air should do is prevent cooling and ice formation. If we do see Arctic intrusions later in the season lake effect would be on the table and later then climatology.


.

Of course 

[michsnowfreak]

26 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Lake effect is a function of Arctic air moving over the warm lakes. With a flood of pacific air lake effect is shut off. One thing the warm air should do is prevent cooling and ice formation. If we do see Arctic intrusions later in the season lake effect would be on the table and later then climatology.


.

Snow flies in the Great Lakes all the time. Its not uncommon to have snow fall daily for weeks straight in Great Lakes cities. Detroit, a city in the Great Lakes but not in the snowbelt, averages 37 days annually with measurable snow and when you add in the dozens of traces a typical season sees about 70-80 days where snow is observed from first flakes to last. You can imagine the averages IN the snow belts (Marquette averages 93 days with measurable snow, not even counting traces). These assertions that it wont snow or won't snow til February are ridiculous. I thought id seen it all when last winter people were ignoring frozen landscapes and ongoing blizzards in their backyards to discuss warmth out west (a region that never previously garnered interest), but we are definitely going to be in for some freaky stuff this winter. No snow in Marquette! Flirting with 90 in Jan in nyc! Can't wait to see what's next.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Snow flies in the Great Lakes all the time. Its not uncommon to have snow fall daily for weeks straight in Great Lakes cities. Detroit, a city in the Great Lakes but not in the snowbelt, averages 37 days annually with measurable snow and when you add in the dozens of traces a typical season sees about 70-80 days where snow is observed from first flakes to last. You can imagine the averages IN the snow belts. These assertions that it wont snow or won't snow til February are ridiculous. I thought id seen it all when last winter people were ignoring frozen landscapes and ongoing blizzards in their backyards to discuss warmth out west (a region that never previously garnered interest), but we are definitely going to be in for some freaky stuff this winter. No snow in Marquette! Flirting with 90 in Jan in nyc! Can't wait to see what's next.

How did the snow belts do in December 2015?


.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

On a national level, of course given the background warming in conjunction with how much OHC has built up to trigger this unprecedented El Niño, but I'm not concerned with that....no one in their right mind is disputing the notion of a very mild season in the DJFM seasonal mean. I don't think the folks like bviking, who laugh at each one of my insights, have really wrapped their minds around what I am saying. What I am focused on is that the prospects for a large east coast winter storm should be heightened relative to 2023 and probably even 2015 given the absence of MC convective forcing. Yes, this season is more east-based than 2015....but it's also less MC-based, as well. You can't obsess over the background warming and neglect the implications of having absolutely no convection in the MC because it means that source of destructive interference for major east coast cyclogenesis is removed during those fleeting colder intervals. I feel as though you are playing with fire if you disregard the prospects for any major winter weather along the east coast with a STJ that potent in conjunction with all CP and EP forcing....the reality is that ALL THREE of this seasons produced snowfalls of well over a foot on the CP of SNE, and 2/3 had substantial MC contribution, so I think folks need to cool it with the group think philosophy and pry open their minds a bit.

Not to mention....1972 and 2015 featured such a dearth of snow up here due to supression during colder intervals, NOT continuously prohibitive warmth. Now we expect a STJ displaced futher to the north as a byproduct of CC, which I think is a net gain up here  despite a warmer mean. Christ, give me the keystone event of the season further north if it means the season is +7 instead of +5.

[michsnowfreak]

8 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

How did the snow belts do in December 2015?


.

Wouldn't the question be how did they do in 2015-16? I mean, im refuting the absurd ideas of a snowless winter; in fact, I actually said multiple times we probably see one big torch month. 

Marquette 160.9" (dec 18.9")
Grand Rapids 61.1" (dec 2.5")
Detroit 35.3" (dec 1.3")

Even in an all time warm December like 2015, it snowed. Just much less than usual.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Wouldn't the question be how did they do in 2015-16? I mean, im refuting the absurd ideas of a snowless winter; in fact, I actually said multiple times we probably see one big torch month. 
Marquette 160.9" (dec 18.9")
Grand Rapids 61.1" (dec 2.5")
Detroit 35.3" (dec 1.3")
Even in an all time warm December like 2015, it snowed. Just much less than usual.

I’m not and never had said places like the lakes and north east mountains we’re in the game for low snow totals. The mid Atlantic coast sure. If you average over 100” the chances of less then 20” are close to zero. It will snow there. My point is without arctic air lake effect is essentially shut off. The Canadian plains are well above normal on the long range models, meaning no cold air source for lake effect.
(In the short term)

.

[michsnowfreak]

14 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’m not and never had said places like the lakes and north east mountains we’re in the game for low snow totals. The mid Atlantic coast sure. If you average over 100” the chances of less then 20” are close to zero. It will snow there. My point is without arctic air lake effect is essentially shut off. The Canadian plains are well above normal on the long range models, meaning no cold air source for lake effect.
(In the short term)

.

Just to be clear, I wasnt aiming that at you. Was at prior posts by some others. I certainly expect less cold/lake snow intrusions than last year. We had snow like 25 days in a row last jan/feb. I think some near the Lake Superior shore might have had 2-3 days total in a 90 day period with no snowflakes. Definitely see less of that this winter.

I personally do unfortunately think its a winter of low snowfall totals in the Lakes...but again, low is not no lol. If Marquette managed a winter under 100" the locals would say it was a non winter. 

For Detroit im guessing around 30"ish for now.