2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[LakePaste25]

46 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Traditional ONI: almost +3.5C RONI: +2.9C The EURO has been dead balls accurate with this event. The over +4C peak it shows for December is not only believable, it’s very likely. Also, the subsurface warming continues. My final call is a December peak of +4.0C - +4.1C (traditional ONI) and +3.5C - +3.6C (RONI). I think the subsurface peaks next month at +13C

My peak of +3.2-3.7 RONI and +3.7-4.2 ONI prediction I made a couple of months ago is looking alright. Might have even gone a little too low. 

[soadforecasterx]

 

Based off this chart really looks like we have our best shot at seeing a positive PDO since the 15/16 season

[michsnowfreak]

19 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

CC trolls will disappear if it ever fails....like they did last year.....either that, or have a circle jerk over how warm it was in New Mexico if they can't troll us. " I realize you just had a NESIS 4 event, and a Feb system that rivaled 1978 in SE NE in the midst of your coldest winter in over a decade, but the warmth in New Mexico was more anomalous than the cold in the NE".

Funny thing is it still proves the point that even though the climate is rapidly warming, these patterns remain cyclical and will largely even out over time independent of the background warming. I know there was some talk that we were going to be in the MC for the rest of eternity give or take, but if ya don't know....now ya know.

 

100%. Completely ignoring how weather patterns work because the earth is warming is a complete disservice to meteorology, and most here know that, so the trolls continue to look foolish.

The obsession is strictly over a seasonal (or annual) mean which totally ignores day to day, week to week weather. Why even bother with the hobby then? I just ran the #s out of curiosity, knowing the spell of mild winters we had in the 1930s-50s, and sure enough, Detroit has averaged MORE below zero days in the 2000s, 2010s, and 2020s than in the 1930s, 1940s, or 1950s. Wanna grasp at a straw that the site has changed over the years, then use nearby Ann Arbor. They have been at U of M site unchanged since 1880...and they too saw significantly more below zero days in the 2000s-2020s than the 1930s-1950s.

[FPizz]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

One thing is for sure. These ridiculous, bombastic claims on twitter today that 2009-10 is the best “analog” for this winter are going to go down in flames. That is quite possibly the worst analog in the entire history of mankind. It’s actually laughable and embarrassing that anyone would think that’s a perfect match for this year. Fantasy, cope, deep denial, fake news, delusion and wishcasting at its finest

Who the hell do you follow to see those claims and why do you still follow them?  I haven't seen any of the sort.  I feel like you see it from one person then act like all of twitter is posting that.  

[jconsor]

Having a weak stratospheric PV in Nov is quite uncharacteristic of a strong El Nino:

https://x.com/rjameswx/status/2115111708884869209

[FPizz]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I haven't even seen one post on twitter about 2009-2010. No one is claiming that 

And you probably would follow the weenies that would post that

[jconsor]

1 minute ago, FPizz said:

Who the hell do you follow to see those claims and why do you still follow them?  I haven't seen any of the sort.  I feel like you see it from one person then act like all of twitter is posting that.  

Dr. Judah Cohen did mention that he feels 2009-10 may be the best analog in the past 30 or so years:

https://published.aer.com/aoblog/aoblog.html

[FPizz]

1 minute ago, jconsor said:

Dr. Judah Cohen did mention that he feels 2009-10 may be the best analog in the past 30 or so years:

https://published.aer.com/aoblog/aoblog.html

I see now.  But, he a kook we all make fun of and have for years?  We all know that

[michsnowfreak]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, all we can say is that this El Nino will be a bit warmer than it would have under identical conditions a decade ago....but not sure that is enough to account for the lack of MC contribution. We spent a decade observing how that amplifies warmth over the eastern CONUS, so we can't now pretend that it wasn't a factor.

Always so many factors. There are a handful of late 19th-early 20th century winters that featured incredible warmth in parts of the north/east U.S. I have no idea what the weather patterns/indicies were in place, but they featured extraordinary warmth, a few of which has never been exceeded in this region since then- 1881-82, 1889-90, 1931-32 (these are the 3 warmest at Detroit and many other nearby locals). Other warm winters included 1875-76, 1877-78, 1879-80, 1905-06, 1918-19. If you add some mathematical formula of X per decade of warming if we had the same identical pattern today, youd get an astronomical number the likes which we have never seen. So I don't think thats always the answer. This El Nino may be a bit warmer over the CONUS as a whole than under identical conditions a decade or two ago, but that still means nothing for individual areas.