2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

16 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Not your typical strong El Nino

Negative PDO is the opposite of what they have. It's not a cooler north pacific. Where they have a Low pressure is really a High pressure. 

[LakePaste25]

38 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I don't know why you've taken on the stance that everything is normal with the El Nino and H. Hemisphere pattern. It clearly is not. We have not seen more than 4 consecutive N. Pacific low days since the El Nino began in April. 

Oct-Nov.. -0.38 max

Dec.. -0.32 max

To say that too much on the correlations and then post QBO correlation is ridiculous! I know the QBO is not anything different from random. It's not a practical surface level indicator perhaps beyond the AO effects. 

It definitely is more influential than the PDO. The PDO is a cumulative reflection of the base ENSO state over the years, it is an extratropical oceanic index that has little to no effect on the long wave pattern. 

[Jebman]

20 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Not your typical strong El Nino

What this means is:

Mid Atlantic will see more cold air intrusions, some of which WILL time with immense moisture to produce HECS in DC;

Texas will get chilly but end up dry as crud. What else is new.

So, in summary----- EXCITING atypical Nino Winter in the Mid Atlantic which will have frequent Siberian intrusions, some resulting in major snows, flooding rains in the Southeast, and cool weather in the Southwest and mostly dry (Texas is well west of The Plume), and the Midwest will be drier than normal, milder than normal, West and Pac NW will be milder with some storminess and the SNE/NE may see a few Nor'easters.

[SnoSki14]

On 10/14/2026 at 1:42 AM, MJO812 said:

Not your typical strong El Nino

Definitely will see tons of volatility but that doesn't mean snow either.  We could have powerful, wet systems though if any arctic air gets involved then maybe. 

[snowman19]

The new EURO run is off the charts. All time record-breaking in regions 1+2, 3 and 3.4 and by a lot. This is the projected traditional ONI for each region next month, keep in mind that the El Niño will still be strengthening at this point. It has the final peak happening in December



My guess is that the ONI/RONI peaks in December. Guess for peaks:

ONI: +4.1C - +4.2C

RONI: +3.5C - +3.6C

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Negative PDO is the opposite of what they have. It's not a cooler north pacific. Where they have a Low pressure is really a High pressure. 

Eh, details...it looks awesome, though, right?

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

It definitely is more influential than the PDO. The PDO is a cumulative reflection of the base ENSO state over the years, it is an extratropical oceanic index that has little to no effect on the long wave pattern. 

Right, but it's a refection of hemispheric forcing that absolutely has a profound effect on the long wave pattern. You are missing the point....it's like seeing a juiced-up disturbance ridging the STJ and up the coast, but telling people not to worry about the arctic high parked over Ottawa because it can't produce precipitation. Sure, but it will interact with entities that absolutely can. Stop viewing the atmosphere in a vacuum and focus on how everything interacts. You don't consume a bag of flower for dessert, right? No, you bake into the pie first.

[A-L-E-K]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The new EURO run is off the charts. All time record-breaking in regions 1+2, 3 and 3.4 and by a lot. This is the projected traditional ONI for each region next month, keep in mind that the El Niño will still be strengthening at this point. It has the final peak happening in December



My guess is that the ONI/RONI peaks in December. Guess for peaks:

ONI: +4.1C - +4.2C

RONI: +3.5C - +3.6C

ready 2 torch

[40/70 Benchmark]

@LakePaste25I'd love to hear why the PDO isn't reflective of crucial forcing. The "X" emoji's are similar to the gaudy AI visuals in that they add very little value.

-PDO is not reflective of El Nino, but rather a competing force...you can ignore it at your own peril, or figure out what said force is and account for it.

[LakePaste25]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@LakePaste25I'd love to hear why the PDO isn't reflective of crucial forcing. The "X" emoji's are similar to the gaudy AI visuals in that they add very little value.

-PDO is not reflective of El Nino, but rather a competing force...you can ignore it at your own peril, or figure out what said force is and account for it.

-PDO is reflective of a multi year La Nina state, which we have been in up until this event started. The idea that we should expect the strongest El Niño in our lives to be impacted by extratropical <20C waters in the pacific due to the fact that we were in a multi year Niña is not something I agree with. PDO regions do not show up on any Rossby wave map as a source. The multiple posts in here suggesting that the pattern we have had in summer and autumn was not only influenced by the PDO but primarily caused by the PDO is absurd to me.  

[bluewave]

It’s great that the JMA has a chart showing the actual forecast SSTs. The current run now has the potential of the +30C warm pool getting pushed all the way east into Nino 1+2.

Since Nino 1+2 reaches its annual peak from late winter into spring, at least one daily +4 in February would be possible since the average starts to climb above 26C. Nino 3 is similar to these values. So it’s a good bet the +30C warm pool will make it at least as far east as Nino 3. 

The 30C warm pool is usually the area where the tropical forcing tends to gravitate to. So while the ENSO anomalies will probably peak in December, the absolutes may not peak in the Nino 3 and 4 regions until February. 

So this first +30C warm pool getting so far east may produce a delayed El Niño peak forcing effect due to the historic buildup of record EPAC warmth. 

The JMA forecast charts show the actusl SSTs leveling off in December in Nino 3.4 and continuing to rise right into February in Nino 3 and 1+2.

 

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/wmc/products/model/indices/3-mon/indices1/shisu_forecast.php

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

-PDO is reflective of a multi year La Nina state, which we have been in up until this event started. The idea that we should expect the strongest El Niño in our lives to be impacted by extratropical <20C waters in the pacific due to the fact that we were in a multi year Niña is not something I agree with. PDO regions do not show up on any Rossby wave map as a source. The multiple posts in here suggesting that the pattern we have had in summer and autumn was not only influenced by the PDO but primarily caused by the PDO is absurd to me.  

Thanks for the elaboration. We can agree to disagree. I don't think it's the <20C waters that is the issue, but rather the continued high-octane OHC that has been building in the western portion of the basin relative to the eastern section over the past decade plus. Obviously the west PAC has always been warmer given the Walker Cycle, but I think part of the reason we have seen this barrage or La Nina events this decade is due to the growing disparity between the west/eastern basins as a product of CC augmenting the cool phase of the multidecadal cycle. Sure, now we have the unprecedented magnitude of this El Nino finally working to restore some balance, but I have a hard time believing there won't be any resistance.....I think we are seeing that with respect to the lethargic rate of recovery of the PDO, most prominently evidenced by the warmth building east of Japan, as well as the residual disconnect between the El Nino and sensible weather over the course of the summer and into the fall. This battle is why I feel the forcing is modeled west of the intense-El Nino composite.

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s great that the JMA has a chart showing the actual forecast SSTs. The current run now has the potential of the +30C warm pool getting pushed all the way east into Nino 1+2.

Since Nino 1+2 reaches its annual peak from late winter into spring, at least one daily +4 in February would be possible since the average starts to climb above 26C. Nino 3 is similar to these values. So it’s a good bet the +30C warm pool will make it at least as far east as Nino 3. 

The 30C warm pool is usually the area where the tropical forcing tends to gravitate to. So while the ENSO anomalies will probably peak in December, the absolutes may not peak in the Nino 3 and 4 regions until February. 

So this first +30C warm pool getting so far east may produce a delayed El Niño peak forcing effect due to the historic buildup of record EPAC warmth. 

The JMA forecast charts show the actusl SSTs leveling off in December in Nino 3.4 and continuing to rise right into February in Nino 3 and 1+2.

 

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/wmc/products/model/indices/3-mon/indices1/shisu_forecast.php

 

 

You were resisting me on the importance of the 30C warm pool with respect to forcing when it was modeled south of Hawaii, and I was arguing it would compete with the east-based El Nino, but now that there is support for it getting further east it's full-steam ahead. lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm not crazy about the JMA this season....it has continued to try to turn this event into a Modoki, which never made much sense to me, and makes even less since now that it's getting the warm pool that far east.