2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[bluewave]

Very impressive to get a near record 594+dm Southeast ridge during an El Niño October. So a continuation of the ridge axis located further south than usual since last May. The typical -EPO October El Niño ridge will probably finish this month the furthest south for an El Niño October. 
 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

53 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Very impressive to get a near record 594+dm Southeast ridge during an El Niño October. So a continuation of the ridge axis located further south than usual since last May. The typical -EPO October El Niño ridge will probably finish this month the furthest south for an El Niño October. 
 

 

Hopefully we can displace the ridge so far south this winter that we can pull off a Nina-like gradient pattern overlaid onto that diesel STJ....slightly further south 2007-2008 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks like October will def. be +NAO, which is good.

[mitchnick]

36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hopefully we can displace the ridge so far south this winter that we can pull off a Nina-like gradient pattern overlaid onto that diesel STJ....slightly further south 2007-2008 

The ridge is transient and in response to the tropical system. Nbd

[bluewave]

52 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hopefully we can displace the ridge so far south this winter that we can pull off a Nina-like gradient pattern overlaid onto that diesel STJ....slightly further south 2007-2008 

Very impressive Southeast ridge in the means since March. So just a continuation of the ongoing pattern.

Very 1997-1998 type storm track forecast with the tropical low lifting north from the Gulf through the East into early next week.

Sometimes these October storm tracks are an early indication of what we get during the winter. But this is a much stronger east based event than that one was.
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Very impressive Southeast ridge in the means since March. So just a continuation of the ongoing pattern. Very 1997-1998 type storm track forecast with the tropical low lifting north from the Gulf through the East into early next week. 
 

 

Storm track of the nor'easter last week was nice.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Storm track of the nor'easter last week was nice.

Only for Central to Northern New England since it tracked directly into the Jersey shore. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Only for Northern New England since it tracked directly into the Jersey shore. 

Nope.....much of SNE would have been buried on that track....it got captured and backed into the Jersey shore before drifting up to the cape post-occlusion. Your portrayal is disingenuous and makes it sound as though it barreled over the Jersey shore and straight into CT or RI.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Now, if you want to argue that there won't be any cold, that is a different issue....but you time that track with a polar high, and there would be a major snowfall across much of Mass/CT/RI. Is the capture that far south and tug back to NJ ideal? No, but I'm not claiming it would have been 2/6/1978...nonetheless, it would have been a major winter storm.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nope.....much of SNE would have been buried on that track....it got captured and backed into the Jersey shore before drifting up to the cape post-occlusion. Your portrayal is disingenuous and makes it sound as though it barreled over the Jersey shore and straight into CT or RI.

During the winter the antecedent warmth with a seasonally stronger STJ than the fall would prevent much snow from getting south of Central and Northern New England with a loop in from the East.

We saw tracks like this but even further south during the January 1992 Nor’easter which got pulled in from the east and also.

Plus December 1992 came in closer to the Delmarva and you had to be pretty far north to cash in on that one compared to NYC Metro.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

During the winter the antecedent warmth with a seasonally stronger STJ than the fall would prevent much snow from getting south of Central and Northern New England with a loop in from the East.

We saw tracks like this but even further south during the January 1992 Nor’easter which got pulled in from the east and also.

Plus December 1992 came in closer to the Delmarva and you had to be pretty far north to cash in on that one.

 Chris, you're wrong. December 1992 did exactly what I am saying...it buried most of SNE. I was in a suburb N of Boston and had 20"....Boston had like 9", as did much of N RI. The southern third of the region would have had issues, sure. I said MUCH of SNE...NOT ALL.

You are saying "antecedent warmth"....which inherently implies a dearth of +PP to the north. If there is a high in place, it will take time to dislodge that cold a stone's throw from the shore.

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 Chris, you're wrong. December 1992 did exactly what I am saying...it buried most of SNE. I was in a suburb N of Boston and had 20"....Boston had like 9", as did much of N RI. The southern third of the region would have had issues, sure. I said MUCH of SNE...NOT ALL.

You are saying "antecedent warmth"....which inherently implies a dearth of +PP to the north. If there is a high in place, it will take time to dislodge that cold a stone's throw from the shore.

December 1992 was a big rainstorm in Southern New England shoreline areas and NYC Metro. I guess our definitions of the geographic regions are a little different. To me anything north of the Hartford to Providence line is Central New England.

That event came into the Delmarva. So winter wavelengths with retrograding system right into NYC would probably be mostly rain in the same regions which got rain in December 1992.

Plus during the 1997-1998 winter the ridge axis was further north along with the 540 thickness line than 92-93 or the 91-92 winter. 

The January 1992 nor’easter which got pulled in from the east was also a big rainstorm for the NYC Metro area.
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

December 1992 was a big rainstorm in Southern New England and NYC Metro. I guess our definitions of the geographic regions are a little different. To me anything north of the Hartford to Providence line is Central New England.

That event came into the Delmarva. So winter wavelengths with retrograding system right into NYC would probably be mostly rain in the same regions which got rain in December 1992.

Plus during the 1997-1998 winter the ridge axis was further north along with the 540 thickness line than 92-93 or the 91-92 winter. 

The January 1992 nor’easter which got pulled in from the east was also a big rainstorm for the NYC Metro area.
 

Okay, your definition of CNE is off and presumably biased by your southern perspective. CNE is from like route 2 northward....we essentially agree then. I knew there must have been something lost in translation-

[FPizz]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 Chris, you're wrong. December 1992 did exactly what I am saying...it buried most of SNE. I was in a suburb N of Boston and had 20"....Boston had like 9", as did much of N RI. The southern third of the region would have had issues, sure. I said MUCH of SNE...NOT ALL.

You are saying "antecedent warmth"....which inherently implies a dearth of +PP to the north. If there is a high in place, it will take time to dislodge that cold a stone's throw from the shore.

I'm guessing this storm?  

[Keith Central PA]

43 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Very impressive Southeast ridge in the means since March. So just a continuation of the ongoing pattern.

Very 1997-1998 type storm track forecast with the tropical low lifting north from the Gulf through the East into early next week.

Sometimes these October storm tracks are an early indication of what we get during the winter. But this is a much stronger east based event than that one was.
 

I guess your hyping a 97-98 winter, which makes sense with the enso.An active Southern jet with little cold air to tap. Inland sections away from the coast did do ok that winter, but probably the worst winter for the coast. It took Spring to get a snowfall, 5 inches in March.Nothing is granted to stone though.

[Keith Central PA]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

December 1992 was a big rainstorm in Southern New England shoreline areas and NYC Metro. I guess our definitions of the geographic regions are a little different. To me anything north of the Hartford to Providence line is Central New England.

That event came into the Delmarva. So winter wavelengths with retrograding system right into NYC would probably be mostly rain in the same regions which got rain in December 1992.

Plus during the 1997-1998 winter the ridge axis was further north along with the 540 thickness line than 92-93 or the 91-92 winter. 

The January 1992 nor’easter which got pulled in from the east was also a big rainstorm for the NYC Metro area.
 

Harrisburg in December 92 had 6 inches..strong winds off the warm Atlantic in mid December didn't help the coast. Actually it did change to snow at the end and Long Island which got an inch

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said:

I guess your hyping a 97-98 winter, which makes sense with the enso.An active Southern jet with little cold air to tap. Inland sections away from the coast did do ok that winter, but probably the worst winter for the coast. It took Spring to get a snowfall, 5 inches in March.Nothing is granted to stone though.

You what's funny and sad at the same time? I had 46.3" that winter...since 2017-2018 I have had TWO seasons, including last year, that were better than that.

Forgive me taking it and this is how things evolve.

[Keith Central PA]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You what's funny and sad at the same time? I had 46.3" that winter...since 2017-2018 I have had TWO seasons, including last year, that were better than that.

Forgive me taking it and this is how things evolve.

really?..wow are you inland of Boston?..NYC metro was shutout that winter

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Okay, your definition of CNE is off and presumably biased by your southern perspective. CNE is from like route 2 northward....we essentially agree then. I knew there must have been something lost in translation-

I was on Long Island for the 1992 Nor’easter. The biggest impact was the record coastal flooding up to that time and hurricane force easterly gusts. We got 3-5” of rain followed by some light snows when the low departed. That event was further south near the Delmarva than the low which tracked right into NYC in September from the east.

Data for December 9, 1992 through December 13, 1992 Total precipitation 
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	4.74
NJ	JERSEY CITY	COOP	4.68
NJ	ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG	COOP	4.40
CT	NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT	COOP	3.69
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	3.66
NY	PATCHOGUE 2 N	COOP	3.60
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	3.59
NY	PLEASANTVILLE	COOP	3.57
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	3.54
NY	NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN	COOP	3.52
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	3.45
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	3.40
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	3.30
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	3.25
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	3.22
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	3.19

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said:

really?..wow are you inland of Boston?..NYC metro was shutout that winter

Yea, I'm like 30mi NNW of Boston....right on the NH border.

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I'm guessing this storm?  

 

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I was on Long Island for the 1992 Nor’easter. The biggest impact was the record coastal flooding up to that time and hurricane force easterly gusts. We got 3-5” of rain followed by some light snows when the low departed. That event was further south near the Delmarva than the low which tracked right into NYC in September from the east.

Sure, which is why I understand there wouldn't be 2' in the hills of NW RI if that storm had occurred during the winter, but plows would have been out in that region as sure as Adam is recycling posts about the record El Nino in some foreign language on X as we speak.

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Sure, which is why I understand there wouldn't be 2' in the hills of NW RI if that storm had occurred during the winter, but plows would have been out in that region as sure as Adam is posting about the record El Nino in some foreign language on X as we speak.

The comparison was to a low tracking in directly from the east over NYC like last week which would be further north than December 1992 that came into the Delmarva.

[soadforecasterx]

11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

Euroai is not alone the GEM has been onboard for a while now. 

[mitchnick]

Just now, soadforecasterx said:

Euroai is not alone the GEM has been onboard for a while now. 

I've mentioned it before. The Cfs2 has literally had it for almost 2 months as the strongest WWB. Beyond it, the WWB are weaker thru the end of December. 

[LakePaste25]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I've mentioned it before. The Cfs2 has literally had it for almost 2 months as the strongest WWB. Beyond it, the WWB are weaker thru the end of December. 

CFS has another strong WWB teed up for early november, although not as strong as this one.

 

[LakePaste25]

MC convection is mostly shut down barring the typical passing ER or MJO pulse. Can also see the seasonal collapse southward of Eastern Pacific convection towards the equator as we get closer to November. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The comparison was to a low tracking in directly from the east over NYC like last week which would be further north than December 1992 that came into the Delmarva.

Right...I get it. Less snow....not 1.5-3' over interior SNE, but plowable nonetheless. Same page.