2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 hours ago, Jebman said:

Hey guys I think it might be high time to start thinking about a 2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino Part 2

topic! This puppy is going on nearly two hundred pages lol.

If the el nino continues to 2027-28, then we'll get a Part 2. Otherwise, the next ENSO thread will be about a la nina.

The last 2 years didn't have a clear ENSO state, and we got to 260 and 307 pages. There won't be a new thread until the next season.

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

There are other factors

It's well coupled.  Just look at how dead the hurricane season has been. 

Strong aleutian low pattern will set up and we'll get flooded with pacific air all winter. 

If anything we've been much warmer than previous strong Ninos thus far for the summer and now September due to CC effects.  I'm seeing a warmer version of 97/98 for us. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

52 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's well coupleds.  Just look at how dead the hurricane season has been. 

Strong aleutian low pattern will set up and we'll get flooded with pacific air all winter. 

If anything we've been much warmer than previous strong Ninos thus far for the summer and now September due to CC effects.  I'm seeing a warmer version of 97/98 for us. 

It's well coupled IN THE TROPICS.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

A record breaking east based Nino is a death sentence.  

1982-83 was a record breaking east based el nino that had a great back half of winter (February blizzard and mid-April snow/freeze event).

[LakePaste25]

BOM updated with a +3.8C RONI. Might be too high, but it will easily get above +3C on the monthly mean. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's well coupled IN THE TROPICS.

@LakePaste25Perhaps this image can help to reduce your confusion and add some clarity....this point is also illustrated by the struggle to develop an Aleutian low to this point. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

May very well get there, but we are talking about NOW...the fact is that El Nino is not very well coupled with the mid latitudes of the N HEM at this time.

[LakePaste25]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@LakePaste25Perhaps this image can help to reduce your confusion and add some clarity....this point is also illustrated by the struggle to develop an Aleutian low to this point. 

Trying to figure out when this region became the tropics. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, LakePaste25 said:

Trying to figure out when this region became the tropics. 

 

Trying to figure out when that region became the northern Hemisphere....

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

May very well get there, but we are talking about NOW...the fact is that El Nino is not very well coupled with the mid latitudes of the N HEM at this time.

Again...you want to deduce that it will couple in the mad latitudes of the N hem based on what is taking place in the s Hem, fine...different point. I agree with that to a large extent, but that doesn't change what is going on right now.

[LakePaste25]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

ok, but your original comment that I reacted to implied that it’s only coupled in the tropics, which isn’t true.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

ok, but your original comment that I reacted to implied that it’s only coupled in the tropics, which isn’t true.

It's a pretty safe assumption that unless otherwise specified, comments in this thread pertain to the N HEM, since that's where we live. If you would like to discuss the S Hem, then the onus in on you to make that known. @SnoSki14originally commented on implications for N HEM winter, which is what prompted my reply.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's well coupled IN THE TROPICS.

The correlation coefficient value between PDO and ENSO is ~+.7.   That's a big, big confidence for any atmospheric relationship.  So, the ongoing -PDO is statistically quite suggestive of low coupling in a broader NINO relative hemisphere     no question.

 

[olafminesaw]

5 hours ago, Jebman said:

Hey guys I think it might be high time to start thinking about a 2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino Part 2

topic! This puppy is going on nearly two hundred pages lol.

What is this the 90s? All out of space on the thread, turn the cassette over to side B?

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The ongoing -PDO is statistically quite suggestive of low coupling in a broader NINO relative hemisphere     no question.

 

Yea, it's clear something still isn't quite clicking.

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, it's clear something still isn't quite clicking.

Whether this is the case on January 15 ... who knows.  But this is an apparent unique - perhaps historically so - state of affairs we are in heading into Autumn. When comparing other warm ENSOs that were anywhere near peers with this one, the PDO was in better agreement.  Those being 1982-1983, 1997-1998 and 2015 very warm events. 

But, +.7 isn't 1.0   The offset .3 isn't exactly a trivial anticorrelation value.   30% of PDO/ENSOs didn't want to cooperate ( according to CDC).  The qualitative difference being ... it is easier on intuition to see a weaker warm ENSO being more likely to anticorrelate - break downs in the machinery in weaker gradients..etc.  However, very powerful ones would instinctively dominate the hemisphere because tall heat S abuts canonical seasonal lowering hgts N, and that's proficient coupling. That's the '82/'97/'15 events.  This ENSO is (presumably) as powerful ( even in a RONI dimming consideration ... it's just too overwhelming? ) yet having this over-arcing -PDO is thus uncharted water ( pun hopefully annoying ... )

It's hard to say how that will impact the circulation 'scaffolding' of the hemisphere, should it persist.  This latter bold being a key question.

There is a modest pos correlation between the PDO and EPO in November, which strengthens significantly through the winter.  This is intriguingly implicating for both warm and cool N/A.   In a short planetary wave length, the -EPO dives the means height anomaly distribution over the west. This correlates/teleconnects to ridging/+geopotential hgts 80W.  But in the winter, when the wave lengths are necessarily long as a physical response to high seasonal velocity foot, the -EPO tends to mean the lower heights progress E fairly quickly.  That's the reason -EPOs cause cold snaps. However, the STJ "should be" lurking over TX into the TV and lower MA should a -PDO/-EPO send in knuckle achers... This sort of 'unicorn' scenario has been discussed among some of us, already.  It's not confident enough to predict... for one, we don't know if this -PDO/atmospheric circulation mod over the arc of the N. Pac will continue.   You know, that big winter storm - the first of the two - that took place last winter is a reasonable implication/typology.  That January one was a broad continental scale overrunning event really..