2026-2027 El Nino

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Seems strange to me that the western equarltorial Pacific has cooled over the last 7 days west of the dateline. Any ideas? The wwb is to last around 10 days per Cfs2 starting around the 17th. But I expected it to be warming west of the dateline. The cooling is on 2 different maps, though more apparenton one than the other.

Because the warm waters are getting sloshed east with the developing El Nino and a +IOD is just starting to develop

 

 

 

+IOD: https://www.climate.gov/media/11095

 

 

[bluewave]

Great write up from ECMWF on how to interpret the recent El Nino forecast so early in the development process.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/science-blog/2026/el-nino-2026

[snowman19]

This is very likely to be a record-breaking typhoon season in the PAC

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

There was a great weather observer living in Newark back in those days. The NJ climate office added all the data to the climate record recently. The beauty of these records is that it matches other overlapping accounts from that era. The average snowfall during that era was 44.0” with a DJF average temperature of 30.4°.

While this winter was the coldest and snowiest at Newark and other stations in over a decade, the temperatures were still warmer than  30 year average for that era. The snowfall this winter was a little higher than the 30 year mean for that era.

Plus they measured snowfall less frequently in the old days compared to today. So the actual seasonal totals could have been around 15 to 20 percent higher if they used the current snowfall measurement techniques. 

https://news.ucar.edu/14009/snowfall-measurement-flaky-history

Monthly a seasonal Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.1	0.8	9.4	12.1	12.6	7.3	1.8	44.0
1872-1873	0.0	4.0	25.1	14.1	23.3	2.2	3.0	71.7
1871-1872	0.0	T	8.5	2.0	5.0	8.5	T	24.0
1870-1871	0.0	T	5.0	16.0	16.1	1.3	2.0	40.4
1869-1870	T	T	8.1	1.8	8.5	11.0	3.0	32.4
1868-1869	T	0.0	9.5	11.0	12.0	5.0	0.6	38.1
1867-1868	0.0	T	15.5	23.8	14.0	15.0	7.0	75.3
1866-1867	0.0	T	7.0	23.5	15.5	17.5	T	63.5
1865-1866	0.0	0.0	13.1	11.8	8.0	1.5	T	34.4
1864-1865	0.0	0.3	26.0	10.5	12.5	T	0.0	49.3
1863-1864	0.0	T	4.3	7.0	1.0	7.0	T	19.3
1862-1863	0.0	6.5	8.0	10.0	13.0	10.9	1.8	50.2
1861-1862	0.0	1.0	1.0	12.0	25.5	4.6	6.0	50.1
1860-1861	0.0	T	7.0	20.6	1.3	17.0	2.0	47.9
1859-1860	3.0	0.0	5.1	11.3	25.0	2.5	T	46.9
1858-1859	0.0	5.5	6.5	12.3	15.8	6.0	T	46.1
1857-1858	0.0	T	4.5	1.8	10.5	10.5	T	27.3
1856-1857	0.0	0.5	4.3	28.1	2.1	17.0	0.0	52.0
1855-1856	0.0	T	9.0	32.8	5.0	11.0	0.0	57.8
1854-1855	0.0	T	8.0	18.5	16.0	2.5	T	45.0
1853-1854	0.0	M	14.5	15.0	23.5	2.8	13.5	69.3
1852-1853	0.0	T	T	15.5	2.3	7.0	T	24.8
1851-1852	0.0	2.0	7.0	20.0	14.0	16.0	4.3	63.3
1850-1851	0.0	0.0	6.0	2.5	3.5	10.5	2.0	24.5
1849-1850	0.0	0.0	11.0	3.0	T	9.0	8.0	31.0
1848-1849	0.0	1.3	24.0	T	13.0	6.0	0.0	44.3
1847-1848	0.0	T	6.0	T	8.0	5.0	T	19.0
1846-1847	0.0	1.5	12.0	10.0	21.0	4.3	0.5	49.3
1845-1846	0.0	T	8.5	16.5	28.0	T	T	53.0
1844-1845	0.0	0.5	6.5	5.5	20.5	5.5	T	38.5
1843-1844	0.0	1.3	9.5	5.5	13.5	1.8	0.0	31.6

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ December to February 
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	31.9	28.8	30.4	30.4
1872-1873	24.7	25.1	27.4	25.7
1871-1872	28.4	29.3	29.7	29.1
1870-1871	33.6	26.5	28.6	29.6
1869-1870	32.9	35.8	30.7	33.1
1868-1869	28.2	32.8	33.3	31.4
1867-1868	26.7	26.3	21.7	24.9
1866-1867	30.7	22.9	36.4	30.0
1865-1866	35.2	25.2	29.9	30.1
1864-1865	31.9	22.8	29.2	28.0
1863-1864	31.4	29.5	32.6	31.2
1862-1863	32.7	32.9	31.4	32.3
1861-1862	33.6	27.6	30.0	30.4
1860-1861	28.8	27.8	34.2	30.3
1859-1860	29.3	29.9	28.9	29.4
1858-1859	32.7	29.6	32.6	31.6
1857-1858	37.0	36.0	26.4	33.1
1856-1857	29.8	19.0	35.7	28.2
1855-1856	33.6	21.4	24.0	26.3
1854-1855	28.8	32.3	25.8	29.0
1853-1854	32.8	28.8	30.6	30.7
1852-1853	39.7	30.5	34.9	35.0
1851-1852	27.2	25.5	31.5	28.1
1850-1851	33.8	33.3	36.9	34.7
1849-1850	33.1	34.4	35.1	34.2
1848-1849	39.9	25.8	24.9	30.2
1847-1848	36.3	32.8	30.5	33.2
1846-1847	31.5	30.4	29.7	30.5
1845-1846	27.6	30.2	27.1	28.3
1844-1845	33.0	33.2	31.3	32.5
1843-1844	33.4	25.1	31.3	29.9

 

 

 

Shortly after I posted that I discovered the dataset and I must say its very impressive to have an actual consistent record of snow/temp/precip pre-1870. I would kill to have that for my area.

As for measuring snow...ive seen that link many times. I've also measured snow for 30 years. Pre-1950 we dont know how individual observers measured. Each station mightve had their own method. What i CAN tell you is that clearing at 6 hours mostly affects fluffy lake snow, double digit storms, or a very long duration snowfall. More run of the mill snowfalls without taint the effect is minimal. 

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Great write up from ECMWF on how to interpret the recent El Nino forecast so early in the development process.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/science-blog/2026/el-nino-2026

Chris,

 1. The writeup you linked us to specifies what we already knew: the U.S. now incorporates RONI for its official ENSO updates vs the Euro still not doing so. So, to approximate RONI based on the current difference, ~0.5C should be subtracted from the Euro progs since they are still predicting a straight ONI.

2. The following shows that although the Euro’s too warm ASO ONI prog was highest for April progs in 2017 (+1.4), it was also significantly too warm in 2025 (+0.8), 2022 (+0.7), 2021 (+0.6), 2020 (+0.8), 2014 (+1.2), and 2012 (+0.6). Moreover, misses to the cold side were much less frequent and smaller. So, based on averaging out the misses, a notable warm bias is evident although it isn’t as large when El Niño actually verifies. None of this means ONI will definitely verify colder than the April Euro prog, but rather to not be surprised if it verifies several tenths colder based on a bias corrected ONI prog:

 

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

 

I’ll compare 2026 to others.

 Here’s 2026 with its first strong -SOI period not til days 98-102:

2026  98 1010.27 1010.30  -17.45

2026  99 1009.30 1011.45  -32.74

2026 100 1009.19 1011.45  -33.53

2026 101 1009.56 1011.00  -27.62

2026 102 1010.69 1010.75  -17.67

 

1) 1994: already had strong -SOI days 75-90:

1994  75 1009.95 1009.25  -16.33

1994  76 1011.21 1009.00   -9.08

1994  77 1010.30 1008.65  -11.78

1994  78 1009.25 1009.30  -19.92

1994  79 1009.33 1009.25  -19.32

1994  80 1010.65 1008.60   -9.86

1994  81 1011.61 1009.45   -9.32

1994  82 1012.00 1010.25  -11.30

1994  83 1010.73 1009.80  -15.23

1994  84 1009.74 1010.30  -22.37

1994  85 1011.13 1011.00  -19.08

1994  86 1012.49 1011.90  -16.86

1994  87 1012.66 1011.95  -16.27

1994  88 1012.31 1012.15  -18.90

1994  89 1012.79 1011.85  -15.19

1994  90 1012.12 1011.85  -18.36

2) 1997: already had strong -SOI days 81-90:

1997  81 1011.33 1011.55  -20.69

1997  82 1009.53 1010.25  -23.08

1997  83 1009.46 1010.35  -23.92

1997  84 1009.17 1010.95  -28.17

1997  85 1009.38 1011.65  -30.50

1997  86 1008.01 1011.85  -38.04

1997  87 1007.55 1011.15  -36.91

1997  88 1010.10 1010.60  -22.07

1997  89 1011.92 1011.00  -15.24

1997  90 1011.97 1010.55  -12.85

 

3) 2002: already had strong -SOI days 72-80

2002  72 1010.71 1012.50  -28.24

2002  73 1010.25 1011.40  -25.18

2002  74 1011.11 1011.10  -19.62

2002  75 1010.70 1010.90  -20.63

2002  76 1009.60 1010.35  -23.27

2002  77 1010.04 1010.55  -22.13

2002  78 1012.20 1010.55  -11.78

2002  79 1013.25 1010.20   -5.07

2002  80 1010.45 1008.90  -12.26

 

4) 2004: already had strong -SOI days 87-97

2004  87 1010.56 1010.65  -20.11

2004  88 1009.84 1011.25  -26.42

2004  89 1009.20 1011.25  -29.49

2004  90 1008.64 1011.75  -34.56

2004  91 1007.47 1011.75  -40.16

2004  92 1006.10 1012.30  -61.94

2004  93 1005.85 1012.25  -63.38

2004  94 1006.74 1011.55  -51.92

2004  95 1005.93 1011.20  -55.23

2004  96 1007.71 1011.00  -40.96

2004  97 1008.59 1010.60  -31.73

5) 2014: already had strong -SOI days 73-80

2014  73 1010.53 1009.55  -14.98

2014  74 1009.38 1010.70  -25.99

2014  75 1008.55 1009.75  -25.42

2014  76 1009.09 1010.40  -25.94

2014  77 1009.21 1009.75  -22.26

2014  78 1007.89 1010.20  -30.73

2014  79 1007.49 1009.30  -28.34

2014  80 1009.69 1008.25  -12.78

6) 2015: already had strong -SOI days 67-79:

2015  67 1007.50 1008.10  -22.55

2015  68 1008.11 1008.65  -22.26

2015  69 1008.73 1008.20  -17.14

2015  70 1009.33 1008.65  -16.42

2015  71 1009.24 1008.45  -15.89

2015  72 1009.91 1007.55   -8.38

2015  73 1010.42 1007.65   -6.42

2015  74 1010.41 1008.90  -12.45

2015  75 1006.90 1010.15  -35.23

2015  76 1005.66 1009.05  -35.90

2015  77 1008.13 1008.65  -22.16

2015  78 1010.35 1009.55  -15.84

2015  79 1008.79 1011.20  -31.21

7) Even the non-Nino 2012, which psyched out the Euro, had an earlier strong negative period:

2012  90 1011.39 1009.80  -12.06

2012  91 1009.90 1010.70  -23.50

2012  92 1010.45 1011.70  -26.25

2012  93 1012.60 1012.20  -14.35

2012  94 1012.53 1013.55  -24.59

2012  95 1011.19 1013.45  -33.53

2012  96 1010.10 1012.15  -32.01

2012  97 1009.94 1011.85  -31.01

2012  98 1009.98 1011.60  -28.91

2012  99 1010.16 1011.65  -27.98

2012 100 1011.50 1011.45  -16.87

 

 OTOH, 2026’s strong -SOI is ahead of 2006, 2009, 2018, and 2023.

[mitchnick]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

I’ll compare 2026 to others.

 Here’s 2026 with its first strong -SOI period not til days 98-102:

2026  98 1010.27 1010.30  -17.45

2026  99 1009.30 1011.45  -32.74

2026 100 1009.19 1011.45  -33.53

2026 101 1009.56 1011.00  -27.62

2026 102 1010.69 1010.75  -17.67

 

1) 1994: already had strong -SOI days 75-90:

1994  75 1009.95 1009.25  -16.33

1994  76 1011.21 1009.00   -9.08

1994  77 1010.30 1008.65  -11.78

1994  78 1009.25 1009.30  -19.92

1994  79 1009.33 1009.25  -19.32

1994  80 1010.65 1008.60   -9.86

1994  81 1011.61 1009.45   -9.32

1994  82 1012.00 1010.25  -11.30

1994  83 1010.73 1009.80  -15.23

1994  84 1009.74 1010.30  -22.37

1994  85 1011.13 1011.00  -19.08

1994  86 1012.49 1011.90  -16.86

1994  87 1012.66 1011.95  -16.27

1994  88 1012.31 1012.15  -18.90

1994  89 1012.79 1011.85  -15.19

1994  90 1012.12 1011.85  -18.36

2) 1997: already had strong -SOI days 81-90:

1997  81 1011.33 1011.55  -20.69

1997  82 1009.53 1010.25  -23.08

1997  83 1009.46 1010.35  -23.92

1997  84 1009.17 1010.95  -28.17

1997  85 1009.38 1011.65  -30.50

1997  86 1008.01 1011.85  -38.04

1997  87 1007.55 1011.15  -36.91

1997  88 1010.10 1010.60  -22.07

1997  89 1011.92 1011.00  -15.24

1997  90 1011.97 1010.55  -12.85

 

3) 2002: already had strong -SOI days 72-80

2002  72 1010.71 1012.50  -28.24

2002  73 1010.25 1011.40  -25.18

2002  74 1011.11 1011.10  -19.62

2002  75 1010.70 1010.90  -20.63

2002  76 1009.60 1010.35  -23.27

2002  77 1010.04 1010.55  -22.13

2002  78 1012.20 1010.55  -11.78

2002  79 1013.25 1010.20   -5.07

2002  80 1010.45 1008.90  -12.26

 

4) 2004: already had strong -SOI days 87-97

2004  87 1010.56 1010.65  -20.11

2004  88 1009.84 1011.25  -26.42

2004  89 1009.20 1011.25  -29.49

2004  90 1008.64 1011.75  -34.56

2004  91 1007.47 1011.75  -40.16

2004  92 1006.10 1012.30  -61.94

2004  93 1005.85 1012.25  -63.38

2004  94 1006.74 1011.55  -51.92

2004  95 1005.93 1011.20  -55.23

2004  96 1007.71 1011.00  -40.96

2004  97 1008.59 1010.60  -31.73

5) 2014: already had strong -SOI days 73-80

2014  73 1010.53 1009.55  -14.98

2014  74 1009.38 1010.70  -25.99

2014  75 1008.55 1009.75  -25.42

2014  76 1009.09 1010.40  -25.94

2014  77 1009.21 1009.75  -22.26

2014  78 1007.89 1010.20  -30.73

2014  79 1007.49 1009.30  -28.34

2014  80 1009.69 1008.25  -12.78

6) 2015: already had strong -SOI days 67-79:

2015  67 1007.50 1008.10  -22.55

2015  68 1008.11 1008.65  -22.26

2015  69 1008.73 1008.20  -17.14

2015  70 1009.33 1008.65  -16.42

2015  71 1009.24 1008.45  -15.89

2015  72 1009.91 1007.55   -8.38

2015  73 1010.42 1007.65   -6.42

2015  74 1010.41 1008.90  -12.45

2015  75 1006.90 1010.15  -35.23

2015  76 1005.66 1009.05  -35.90

2015  77 1008.13 1008.65  -22.16

2015  78 1010.35 1009.55  -15.84

2015  79 1008.79 1011.20  -31.21

7) Even the non-Nino 2012, which psyched out the Euro, had an earlier strong negative period:

2012  90 1011.39 1009.80  -12.06

2012  91 1009.90 1010.70  -23.50

2012  92 1010.45 1011.70  -26.25

2012  93 1012.60 1012.20  -14.35

2012  94 1012.53 1013.55  -24.59

2012  95 1011.19 1013.45  -33.53

2012  96 1010.10 1012.15  -32.01

2012  97 1009.94 1011.85  -31.01

2012  98 1009.98 1011.60  -28.91

2012  99 1010.16 1011.65  -27.98

2012 100 1011.50 1011.45  -16.87

 

 OTOH, 2026’s strong -SOI is ahead of 2006, 2009, 2018, and 2023.

Just in case anyone was wondering why the hypsters haven't talked about the SOI. Lol

[GaWx]

Latest OHC:

[George001]

On 4/10/2026 at 9:32 AM, michsnowfreak said:

Lmao. That is ridiculous to say in April that the best case for the following winter is strong. That makes it sound like a foregone conclusion, and it’s not even close. It’s going to be hilarious to see this thread if it doesnt even hit strong. The biggest surprise imo will be if it actually IS a "SSSSUUUUPPPPEEEERRRR" super nino, you just dont get supers that close. Itll be even funnier if the eastern troughing pattern continues or at the very least a 3rd year in a row where the winter turns out much colder in the east than the wishing of some here.

It’s still too early to know for sure how strong the El Niño will be but the early signs do favor an event that gets fairly powerful. How strong is uncertain, but he’s right that if it does become a super event that would be very bad news for northern areas. 

[snowman19]

[so_whats_happening]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

Latest OHC:

2023 OHC for reference

[snowman19]

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, George001 said:

It’s still too early to know for sure how strong the El Niño will be but the early signs do favor an event that gets fairly powerful. How strong is uncertain, but he’s right that if it does become a super event that would be very bad news for northern areas. 

Again, to be clear, im only doubting super at this point. It would be unheard of so close. Definitely a nino is coming.

Super would not be fun, but we always get winter in the great lakes. Thats a great thing about living here. You're rescued in the worst case scenarios. Our climate is less feast/famine. 

One thing that im liking is the persistent of the eastern trough in recent years. 

[GaWx]

QBO (30 mb) still has not updated for March! I don’t recall it ever taking nearly this long for any month, which has me a bit concerned:

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

[bluewave]

20 hours ago, GaWx said:

Chris,

 1. The writeup you linked us to specifies what we already knew: the U.S. now incorporates RONI for its official ENSO updates vs the Euro still not doing so. So, to approximate RONI based on the current difference, ~0.5C should be subtracted from the Euro progs since they are still predicting a straight ONI.

2. The following shows that although the Euro’s too warm ASO ONI prog was highest for April progs in 2017 (+1.4), it was also significantly too warm in 2025 (+0.8), 2022 (+0.7), 2021 (+0.6), 2020 (+0.8), 2014 (+1.2), and 2012 (+0.6). Moreover, misses to the cold side were much less frequent and smaller. So, based on averaging out the misses, a notable warm bias is evident although it isn’t as large when El Niño actually verifies. None of this means ONI will definitely verify colder than the April Euro prog, but rather to not be surprised if it verifies several tenths colder based on a bias corrected ONI prog:

 

The Nino regions have been steadily warming over the years. So it takes a lower ONI departure in a modern climate to record the same actual SSTs. The atmospheric forcing responds to the actual SSTs especially when getting close to the threshold temperatures.

This is why we had such a strong El Niño response with regard to the 500mb and ridge over Canada and the Northern States with record warmth back in 2023-2024 with a lower  ONI than 1997-1998.

The totality of the SST warmth from Nino 1+2 to Nino 4 extending west of the Dateline was among the highest ever recorded for the actual SSTs during an El Niño. ONI and RONI values for just 3.4 won’t always reflect this. 

The lower RONI values may have been a result the lack of a significant El Niño trough in the East and South and weaker Aleutian low than normal. So we didn’t need ONI or RONI values as strong as 1997-1998 or 2015-2016 to create similar effects. 

So if this event can max out at around 2.0° ONI or higher in Nino 3.4, then it possible it can have an effect closer to 2.3° to +2.5° in the old days especially with the Nino ridge and warmth to the north. 

The actual SSTs may be more important than the specific departures in measuring the actual magnitude necessary to initiate a strong El Niño atmospheric response. Nino 3.4 got to 28.57° during the early winter back in 2023.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt

NDJ 2023  28.57   2.06

Notice how much mare expansive the +30C warm pool was in the Central Pacific in December 2023 than 1998 which lead to the record global temperature jump and warmth that winter. ONI and RONI values won’t always capture this. 

 

 

 

[GaWx]

 The newest BoM prog (dated April 11th) is unchanged and thus still has a RONI of +0.6 for April averaged out. This is almost certainly going to end up much too warm for April:

 

How do I know it is almost definitely going to bust much too warm for April?

 

Weekly RONI equivalent: 3rd column is 3.4

01APR2026         0.6       -0.3       -0.2        0.3
 08APR2026         1.0       -0.2       -0.3        0.2

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

 
 So, the weeks centered on April 1/April 8 were -0.2/-0.3.

 Here’s the current OISST, which isn’t relative and thus one needs to subtract ~0.5 from it:

 As the above chart shows, there’s been no net warming for the last 3 weeks and the latest few days of OISST have been only +0.05 to +0.15. Subtracting 0.5 gives ~-0.4 for the RONI equivalent. April 1-11 OISST are likely no warmer than ~-0.3 for RONI equiv. To be conservative in converting from OISST to ERSST, I’ll call it -0.2 for RONI MTD. The weeklies I showed suggest between -0.2 and -0.3. 
 

 How is it even possible for April RONI as a whole to come in anywhere near as warm as +0.6? These daily OISST readings (don’t forget these are not relative) would need to skyrocket to an avg of at least ~+1.5 for Apr 12-30!! And with OISST starting off at <+0.2, there are going to have to be some +2++ dailies starting no later than 2 weeks from now! Nothing even remotely close to that extremely rapid rate of warming has occurred on record. Thus, BoM is looking to bust much too warm for Apr RONI. With Apr being way off, the credibility of the rest of the run is compromised.