2026-2027 El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 3/20/2026 at 6:00 PM, MJO812 said:

Its way too early. Winter just ended lol

Long range outlooks are so fickle. Many long range forecasts had near or below normal snowfall here in NYC with above average temps for this past winter. 

I think wetter and warmer than this past winter in the NE is a good guess for next season.

[Typhoon Tip]

maybe a super nino will finally couple to the mid latitudes more convincingly. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

If El Nino doesn't become exceedingly strong, I wonder if we don't see this same type of warm west/cold east pattern stagnate into next season...a la a 2002-2003 type of warm ENSO.

[GaWx]

17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

maybe a super nino will finally couple to the mid latitudes more convincingly. 

 It, of course, still remains to be seen whether there will actually be a super Nino. The last one was in reality 2015-6 as 2023-4 peaked at only borderline moderate/strong per RONI, which is now the official way of measuring. Currently, RONI is ~0.5C cooler than ONI. Most model progs are only of ONI.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

maybe a super nino will finally couple to the mid latitudes more convincingly. 

I would argue that the 2023-2024 El Nino coupled, but it was partially masked by the prevailing west warm pool, so there was some mixed cool-ENSO like attributes to the pattern.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 It, of course, still remains to be seen whether there will actually be a super Nino. The last one was in reality 2015-6 as 2023-4 peaked at only borderline moderate/strong per RONI, which is now the official way of measuring. 

Take out that west warm pool and I think 2023-2024 would have been in line with the ONI, which was bordered on super-designation. The expression was partially stifled throughout the hemisphere.

[roardog]

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 It, of course, still remains to be seen whether there will actually be a super Nino. The last one was in reality 2015-6 as 2023-4 peaked at only borderline moderate/strong per RONI, which is now the official way of measuring. Currently, RONI is ~0.5C cooler than ONI. Most model progs are only of ONI.

I know RONI is the “official” way to measure Enso now but it’s not perfect with the old ONI measurement. If you showed me a 500mb anomaly map of the 23-24 winter over North America, I certainly wouldn’t think moderate/ borderline strong Nino. I would think very strong Nino with a -PDO like 72-73. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, roardog said:

I know RONI is the “official” way to measure Enso now but it’s not perfect with the old ONI measurement. If you showed me a 500mb anomaly map of the 23-24 winter over North America, I certainly wouldn’t think moderate/ borderline strong Nino. I would think very strong Nino with a -PDO like 72-73. 

You need to understand why the index is reading what it does, and what it is trying to portray, just like any other index. 1972-1973 is actually a good comp given the -PDO. The only reason the RONi lagged the ONI in 2023 is because there were competing influences that actually made it warmer across the eastern US.  "Weaker" is not necessarily "colder".

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would argue that the 2023-2024 El Nino coupled, but it was partially masked by the prevailing west warm pool, so there was some mixed cool-ENSO like attributes to the pattern.

 

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You need to understand why the index is reading what it does, and what it is trying to portray, just like any other index. 1972-1973 is actually a good comp given the -PDO. The only reason the RONI lagged the ONI in 2023 is because there were competing influences that actually made it warmer across the eastern US. "Weaker" is not necessarily "colder".

 

[MJO812]

54 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think wetter and warmer than this past winter in the NE is a good guess for next season.

I mean this winter was a really cold one in the east.  It would be hard to duplicate it.

[csnavywx]

Now that we officially moved to RONI, the funniest possible outcome is a Nino that smashes through 2.0 on RONI anyways.

Still early but hard not to like all of the off-center WWBs pumping warm water volume towards the equator. It's got the potential, especially given how early it got started.

[snowman19]

36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If El Nino doesn't become exceedingly strong, I wonder if we don't see this same type of warm west/cold east pattern stagnate into next season...a la a 2002-2003 type of warm ENSO.

I think it may take a super event to finally, at long last, completely flip and reshuffle the PAC. After the winter we just had, if we have to throw away one winter to an east-based, super El Niño and go back to the PAC of the early-mid 2000’s, I don’t think the people who love winter would be complaining 

[Typhoon Tip]

that was snark point...  it takes a super dope phat bad ass nino to actually couple. 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

"Weaker" is not necessarily "colder".

Exactly. It's because the stronger ones tend to be significantly more east-based. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

23-24 didn't have super negative anomalies in the Pacific like other Strong Nino's, but ENSO mainly effects the North Pacific High

23-24 cold season did have a NPH negative anomaly, which is El Nino. I see why RONI was +1.5, as the total N. Pacific pattern wasn't very influenced by ENSO seemingly:

[snowman19]

6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Exactly. It's because the stronger ones tend to be significantly more east-based. 

The super Ninos over the last 50+ years have all been east-based/East Pacific (1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98), with the exception of 2015-16, which was basin-wide. There are no Modoki super El Niños 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The super Ninos over the last 50+ years have all been east-based/East Pacific (1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98), with the exception of 2015-16, which was basin-wide. There are no Modoki super El Niños 

91-92 was probably the 2nd strongest that was basin-wide or more west-based. RONI was +2.3 for 91-92. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

43 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Exactly. It's because the stronger ones tend to be significantly more east-based. 

Yea, weaker just allows for other influences to have more impact...which isn't necessarily a cold influence. Weaker events are just colder on average because they aren't overwhelmingly strong east-based events and this have greater variability.