Jan 30th-February 1st 2026 Arctic Blast/ULL Snow OBS Thread.

[Carvers Gap]

I will say this…with everyone getting at least some snow, the stage is set for very cold air to pour into the region through Tuesday AM.  Real feels are gonna be rough.   

[1234snow]

Snow band set up right along I-81. It is also very windy outside here. Rattling the windows.

[John1122]

All modeling still shows 4-8 inches in the WSW area. Most show me getting 2-3 more inches, it not sure if things pulled back east a little on them or it just that part of the snow they were giving me has already fallen. 

Of the models that have ran at 0z, the fv3, which had been giving me the least, gives me 5 more inches, which is the most of the 0z modeling so far. 

[Scottie16]

All modeling still shows 4-8 inches in the WSW area. Most show me getting 2-3 more inches, it not sure if things pulled back east a little on them or it just that part of the snow they were giving me has already fallen. 
Of the models that have ran at 0z, the fv3, which had been giving me the least, gives me 5 more inches, which is the most of the 0z modeling so far. 

Watching the satellite of lower, middle & upper air moisture you can see it starting to fill back in.


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[nrgjeff]

It's getting windy because somebody posted Cousin Eddie, who is from Kansas. 

17 minutes ago, dwagner88 said:

Man it’s windy. Blowing my dusting right off the roof. 

Some of it is typical fropa wind. We also have a bit of a press gradient tomorrow as the low press deepens off the Carolinas. 

[Carvers Gap]

3k NAM with some fairly big reductions over Sullivan as well as the 12k.

[TellicoWx]

Getting first flurries now

[dwagner88]

I find it very interesting that this event is also starting with a a poorly modeled initial round of precip. Just like last weekend. Hopefully this weekend scratches the snowy itch for more of us. 

[GBOVolz]

We are just getting almost nothing in West Knox even though I am in the 4 to 5 inch area. It is hard to bet against Carver, I just don't think we are going to get a lot of help from the east low.  Could be wrong, but it's not looking good on Radar People like John can score on these events, but I think this is mostly going to be an extream cold wringing out moisture event. 

Have patience… the ULL isn’t in our area yet


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[TellicoWx]

Flakes are really small, but enough for a dusting to have started on the truck and roof.

[GBOVolz]

Flakes are really small, but enough for a dusting to have started on the truck and roof.

That’s how it started here. It didn’t really even look like snow at first almost like the air was dusty.


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[Uncle Nasty]

Temp down to 31° but the snow has pretty much ended except for a few random flurries. What little we had fall stuck instantly to cars and concrete. Really would like to see about 6 hours of what we had for the short time it was snowing.

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[John1122]

It's still rolling here. This is a shock to me. 

 

[Daniel Boone]

0Z RGEM has 3 more inches for here 10:1 Ratio. It's probably 17-20:1 Ratio out now. 20 degrees. May wind up with what Euro has been showing pretty much spot on. 

[Vol4Life]

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

It's still rolling here. This is a shock to me. 

 

No one else is shocked!  Your location over performs 90% of the time!

[Daniel Boone]

3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

It's still rolling here. This is a shock to me. 

 

Big time forecast bust there.

[BuCoVaWx]

1 minute ago, Daniel Boone said:

0Z RGEM has 3 more inches for here 10:1 Ratio. It's probably 17-20:1 Ratio out now. 20 degrees. May wind up with what Euro has been showing pretty much spot on. 

That would be great. Euro shows me around 6-8" last I checked. I'm a bit more north, might be a struggle to get that little extra up here.

[Stovepipe]

The snow is light but steady in Halls with peas and dimes, non-brined roads are starting to get some coverage.  Temp dropping steadily, currently 25.  Glad to see the modeling is still in almost perfect agreement for 5 inches for this location.

[Carvers Gap]

10 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

0Z RGEM has 3 more inches for here 10:1 Ratio. It's probably 17-20:1 Ratio out now. 20 degrees. May wind up with what Euro has been showing pretty much spot on. 

Yeah, the 0z RGEM isn’t budging.  If there is a model we don’t want to budge…it’s that one.  I see the snow hole at 18z over your area. I took a screen shot for later discussion.  That is a major data issue IMHO.   

[Bigbald]

I like the Nam 12k 0z although its alot more robust than the 3k and longer range nam.  It doesnt end the snow in the higher northwest favored mountains in swva and east tn until late Sunday, with this kind of cold air I got to believe thats going to be an accurate wringing of every last drop of moisture.  Oz rgem similiar too.

[Bigbald]

 I have noticed Falls Branch to Baileyton has had some impressive radar returns since I left work.

[TellicoWx]

Just now, Bigbald said:

 I have noticed Falls Branch to Baileyton has had some impressive radar returns since I left work.

Was just about to say, is it me or is the valley starting to fill in from north to south on radar. 

[ShawnEastTN]

For me snow has increased a bit from flurries back to the lighter end of light snow.

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[WintryMixmaster]

Just got home from South Knoxville... definitely a snowfall gradient over the area as expected. Maybe a little over an inch there, but here in west Knox we're at about a quarter inch so far

[bearman]

1 minute ago, WintryMixmaster said:

Just got home from South Knoxville... definitely a snowfall gradient over the area as expected. Maybe a little over an inch there, but here in west Knox we're at about a quarter inch so far

I have keep thinking returns are getting better.  I live in the Cedar Bluff area, and it seems like I am at a cutoff point.  I maybe have a fourth of an inch. I took a little drive towards Halls, and they have at least an inch or more as far as it looks I did not get out and measure. I hope we are going to start getting those better returns soon

[brewman22001]

Have patience… the ULL isn’t in our area yet


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Just up the road next to the zoo we have a little over a inch. The primary system is yet to come that’s where we’ll get the snow I believe.


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[John1122]

Ratios are really getting up there now. I'd guess 17:1 or maybe 20:1  I've had just over .25 liquid equivalent so far. Most modeling had me maxing out around that amount. 

 

 

[Daniel Boone]

17 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yeah, the 0z RGEM isn’t budging.  If there is a model we don’t want to budge…it’s that one.  I see the snow hole at 18z over your area. I took a screen shot for later discussion.  That is a major data issue IMHO.   

Yeah, I spoke with a Met at MRX about that and he just said maybe the heavier bands were just going further NW than what was projected. I told him about the flawed official Station in Pennington gap and I thought that may be the culprit or Models were suggesting downsloping off Black Mountain. He just said we already had more than what they had forecasted for us and the bands were probably further NW. I like them but, I think it probably came off I was bringing it up to them because of already having as much snow as they had for us for the entire event. 

[WintryMixmaster]

1 minute ago, bearman said:

I have keep thinking returns are getting better.  I live in the Cedar Bluff area, and it seems like I am at a cutoff point.  I maybe have a fourth of an inch. I took a little drive towards Halls, and they have at least an inch or more as far as it looks I did not get out and measure. I hope we are going to start getting those better returns soon

Yeah I think most modeling showed light snow before midnight and after 10 am or so tomorrow, and most of our accumulation came from the midnight to 10 am period. The question is, do I stay up late to see it or do I get up early? Or do I just make some more coffee and go from there? haha

[bcxVoL05]

 At least I got 2 happy boys out of it haha...