February 2026

[Carvers Gap]

Really good look next weekend....there is a low in the lakes which is messing w/ thermals....but there is time for that to adjust.  NE TN needs to watch this one, and especially SW VA.

[Carvers Gap]

It looks to me like next weekend is a weak slp pushes west of the Apps and then transfers to the inland Plain of GA or the Carolinas.  Blizzard setup for the Northeast.  If we can get a cleaner pass, that is money here as well.  Ensembles have energy to the west of the Apps w/ a transfer to an inland runner.  

[BlunderStorm]

East River Mtn. Roof of the Tennessee Valley, sheltered hollows below it neared -20F last week.

Lake Witten (Tazewell):

 

Clinch River (New Garden):

Clinch (Blackford Bridge)

Upper Clinch (Near Swords Creek)

Heck of a cold spell, been quite a show. The freezing has been impressive with even a snowpack on Witten! I'm not quite ready to let go of winter but I figure we could all use a break. Hoping for some upper 50s for a nice winter hike.  Now on the other hand If we do score some marginal mid Feb winter wx in the window Carver is watching it will be the most impressive month long span of true winter in my memory.

Flurries in Honaker, 27F.

[Daniel Boone]

[Daniel Boone]

Just now, Daniel Boone said:

That Picture is of the Powell River in Pennington gap back in the late '70's. You could walk across it.

[bearman]

17 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

That Picture is of the Powell River in Pennington gap back in the late '70's. You could walk across it.

Back in the 70’s I was in high school and would have loved that scene .  Today I am 63 and it takes too long a duration and too low of temperatures to get that result. I like my snow while it is falling then give it 2 days of a hard freeze and then I am ready for a break in the 60s.

[Daniel Boone]

8 minutes ago, bearman said:

Back in the 70’s I was in high school and would have loved that scene .  Today I am 63 and it takes too long a duration and too low of temperatures to get that result. I like my snow while it is falling then give it 2 days of a hard freeze and then I am ready for a break in the 60s.

I hear ya man. There was a Pond that was 4-5 feet Deep that I remember being snow covered and me and my Neighbor walked on it. Ice was amazingly thick. Thinking back on it, we were pretty crazy doing that. Lol.

  I remember the Creek near our house was completely Frozen. There were cracks where it had split apart in places and there was no running water to be seen. 

[jaxjagman]

3 hours ago, BlunderStorm said:

East River Mtn. Roof of the Tennessee Valley, sheltered hollows below it neared -20F last week.

Lake Witten (Tazewell):

 

Clinch River (New Garden):

Clinch (Blackford Bridge)

Upper Clinch (Near Swords Creek)

Heck of a cold spell, been quite a show. The freezing has been impressive with even a snowpack on Witten! I'm not quite ready to let go of winter but I figure we could all use a break. Hoping for some upper 50s for a nice winter hike.  Now on the other hand If we do score some marginal mid Feb winter wx in the window Carver is watching it will be the most impressive month long span of true winter in my memory.

Flurries in Honaker, 27F.

You guys have a awesome winter,its really odd from Johnnson City to Memphis to be so cold and the rest of basically seeing a average winter.Even more odd to see Jacksonville to Orlando

 

https://mrcc.purdue.edu/research/awssi

[jaxjagman]

This really has been a strange winter

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/buffalo/news/2026/02/06/lake-erie-almost-completely-ice-covered-for-first-time-in-2-decades

[Matthew70]

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

This really has been a strange winter

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/buffalo/news/2026/02/06/lake-erie-almost-completely-ice-covered-for-first-time-in-2-decades

Maybe I am way off but I really feel like we are going back to the old style winters.  Longer colder periods.  Many places across the globe experiencing record snowfalls.  

[WintryMixmaster]

3 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

Maybe I am way off but I really feel like we are going back to the old style winters.  Longer colder periods.  Many places across the globe experiencing record snowfalls.  

I hope you're right and these last 2 winters weren't just an anomaly. Though I think my favorite winter here was 2023-2024 - a big storm and snow on the ground for a week, but mild otherwise. Cold and dry is my least favorite kind of winter - though I know some others will disagree, since the cold at least makes it feel more like winter even without snow

[Matthew70]

Well, it has been fun, but it’s looking like winter has packed his bags and leaving town.  There’s always a chance of a Hail Mary. Looks like cooler to colder weather will happen during spring, but the precipitation will be liquid.  I expect a lot of flooding rains. 

[Weatheriscool]

34 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Well, it has been fun, but it’s looking like winter has packed his bags and leaving town.  There’s always a chance of a Hail Mary. Looks like cooler to colder weather will happen during spring, but the precipitation will be liquid.  I expect a lot of flooding rains. 

Yes, as is usually the case in Middle TN, we have that sweet spot of generally the last two weeks of December, January, and the first two weeks of February, once we are past that, seems like it is just so ever hard to get any appreciable system other than the occasional one-of system. It is going to have to rain a whole lot here in Sumner county to create flooding issues! We are still dry dry dry! 

[Carvers Gap]

I wish I could be optimistic and say that winter is over....nope.  The Weeklies are bleak when it comes to cold returning(meaning a very cold March and last week of February).  I think we are seeing the same pattern repeat itself.  Strong cold shot, 2-3 week warm-up....wash, rinse, repeat.  The coldest temps are just outside of the range of deterministic models at this point.  Now, could the weeklies be wrong?  For sure.  Some winters break for spring exactly like this.  But the Weeklies tend to suggest that winter hangs on, and probably more than most would like.

[Carvers Gap]

In the words of the great Yogi Berra, "It's like deja vu all over again."

Here are some maps from the Weeklies which just ran....The first three are control runs.  The last is the ensemble 500 map.  Snow signal is showing up at the end of February and into early March.  This model has been pretty consistent with that look.  This is not a warm look, and this is what we were seeing similar to the last two cold air masses which came into the eastern half of the US.  Could winter be over?  Sure.  But there are multiple examples of winter which just kind of hangs on...similar to endless summer.

 

[Weatheriscool]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

I wish I could be optimistic and say that winter is over....nope.  The Weeklies are bleak when it comes to cold returning(meaning a very cold March and last week of February).  I think we are seeing the same pattern repeat itself.  Strong cold shot, 2-3 week warm-up....wash, rinse, repeat.  The coldest temps are just outside of the range of deterministic models at this point.  Now, could the weeklies be wrong?  For sure.  Some winters break for spring exactly like this.  But the Weeklies tend to suggest that winter hangs on, and probably more than most would like.

Well, the 5 days with no power, followed by the week and changed of the flu, I am ready for Spring. 

[Matthew70]

15 minutes ago, Weatheriscool said:

Well, the 5 days with no power, followed by the week and changed of the flu, I am ready for Spring. 

Feel better soon!

[Matthew70]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

In the words of the great Yogi Berra, "It's like deja vu all over again."

Here are some maps from the Weeklies which just ran....The first three are control runs.  The last is the ensemble 500 map.  Snow signal is showing up at the end of February and into early March.  This model has been pretty consistent with that look.  This is not a warm look, and this is what we were seeing similar to the last two cold air masses which came into the eastern half of the US.  Could winter be over?  Sure.  But there are multiple examples of winter which just kind of hangs on...similar to endless summer.

 

I hate to say this, but a hard pass on that.  Middle Tennessee no snow again forget it.  I’m over snow going north south east and west of Middle, Tennessee.  It’s like a nightmare that won’t let you wake up.  That has Freddie in it saying no snow for you.

[Weatheriscool]

1 minute ago, Matthew70 said:

Feel better soon!

Thanks, the household has it as well as the adm staff at the college where I work. We will get there, I am thankful we didn't have it when we had no power!

[Golf757075]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

In the words of the great Yogi Berra, "It's like deja vu all over again."

Here are some maps from the Weeklies which just ran....The first three are control runs.  The last is the ensemble 500 map.  Snow signal is showing up at the end of February and into early March.  This model has been pretty consistent with that look.  This is not a warm look, and this is what we were seeing similar to the last two cold air masses which came into the eastern half of the US.  Could winter be over?  Sure.  But there are multiple examples of winter which just kind of hangs on...similar to endless summer.

 

I personally would like one more opportunity here, mainly snow. It was a decent winter event a few weeks ago. Im glad it was mainly snow/sleet. Imo, we would probably want to see the epo trend negative before we had a realistic chance. Or a -ao. West tennessee avoided the real cold weather this winter, as compared to east of here. It will be interesting with el niño next winter and a +qbo with high solar. 

[nrgjeff]

The really cold classic winter pattern is probably over. However bowling balls and other vigorous systems can still bring snow for another month, especially I-40 north. Indeed the torch does not last forever and the 16-20 day trends back toward normal temps.

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, nrgjeff said:

The really cold classic winter pattern is probably over. However bowling balls and other vigorous systems can still bring snow for another month, especially I-40 north. Indeed the torch does not last forever and the 16-20 day trends back toward normal temps.

Normal by then is 50's for Highs. May even be near 60 down there. I agree on the long standing winter cold pattern being over.

Hopefully we land a perfectly timed powerful bowling ball or Late Season Miller A. 

   Cutoff Low Season coming as well. Time those just right and good things can happen.

   Just throwing out some positive Vibes.

     

[Carvers Gap]

38 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Normal by then is 50's for Highs. May even be near 60 down there. I agree on the long standing winter cold pattern being over.

Hopefully we land a perfectly timed powerful bowling ball or Late Season Miller A. 

   Cutoff Low Season coming as well. Time those just right and good things can happen.

   Just throwing out some positive Vibes.

     

The Weeklies are cold from week 3 onward - I wouldn't even say 50-60s seasonal stuff.  Looks to me like highs in the 40s for many.  I would assume most understand we aren't getting January temps in late February or March - LOL.  But the Weeklies this afternoon are a slog.  Maps are referenced above.  Same, exact signal as the past two cold shots.  I would put a target date from just after Feb 21 to the end of March(or earlier).   I do think winter hangs on longer than most are gonna want it to...especially after this warm-up gets everyone ready for spring.  I highly doubt NE TN and your area are done for the season.  I would never guarantee anything...but the pattern itself would yield cold.  I would suggest it may well be significantly colder than seasonal, but still a ways to go before getting too specific on my part.  They were cold enough this afternoon that I was digging up the Pisgah snow analogs for May of 92.    I think a lot of folks who are new to the region haven't seen what March can do in Tennessee as we have flipped warm during so many recent springs.  I am not saying we go to that place this March...but I have certainly seen March be a winter month.  This has been a winter where we have thought it ended multiple times.  Does it have one last gasp?  Maybe.

I am gonna make one early call...I think fall comes early. 

[Carvers Gap]

I should add that spring is tricky as the 500 pattern would allow for more severe cold(reference maps above), but eventually spring will win.  Not as much of a sure bet as say the post Thanksgiving cold shot and January cold shot were.  We still have lakes and ponds which are frozen up here.  I still have snow on the north side of my house.

[Daniel Boone]

43 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The Weeklies are cold from week 3 onward - I wouldn't even say 50-60s seasonal stuff.  Looks to me like highs in the 40s for many.  I would assume most understand we aren't getting January temps in late February or March - LOL.  But the Weeklies this afternoon are a slog.  Maps are referenced above.  Same, exact signal as the past two cold shots.  I would put a target date from just after Feb 21 to the end of March(or earlier).   I do think winter hangs on longer than most are gonna want it to...especially after this warm-up gets everyone ready for spring.  I highly doubt NE TN and your area are done for the season.  I would never guarantee anything...but the pattern itself would yield cold.  I would suggest it may well be significantly colder than seasonal, but still a ways to go before getting too specific on my part.  They were cold enough this afternoon that I was digging up the Pisgah snow analogs for May of 92.    I think a lot of folks who are new to the region haven't seen what March can do in Tennessee as we have flipped warm during so many recent springs.  I am not saying we go to that place this March...but I have certainly seen March be a winter month.  This has been a winter where we have thought it ended multiple times.  Does it have one last gasp?  Maybe.

I am gonna make one early call...I think fall comes early. 

I agree Man. I started to bring up the big May of 92 Snow and the April '87.

    I think Jeff was saying he didn't think there'd be any long lasting long duration Winter Cold. As far as my comment about the Normal, that was in response of what he said as far as the 16-20 Outlook. I noticed Weeklies showing well below. 

       If we ever had another March like 1960 that would freak many people nowadays out.