1/30-1/31 Lake Effect Snow Threat - SE WI, NE IL, and NW IN

[A-L-E-K]

only impacting a few of us but no need to keep cluttering the med/long range thread 

going with 3 imby

 

[Malacka11]

If I can walk away with an inch to keep appearances up I'll be happy. Anything above that is bonus money

Hope it'll work out for someone. Seems like quite the long duration event for this side of the lake no?

[A-L-E-K]

27 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Seems like quite the long duration event for this side of the lake no?

band looks wobbly, verbatim the gfs is banger but the euro is naso hyped and the track record of single band events hanging around this side of the lake is rather poor, hence the low-ish call

[mimillman]

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

only impacting a few of us but no need to keep cluttering the med/long range thread 

going with 3 imby

 

I think reasonable, my plan is to road trip on Saturday/Sunday to where band sets up better residence time 

[homedis]

Agree with all on this. It’s really the more disorganized lake effect/lake enhancement scenarios that we really cash in, these single intense lake effect band scenarios take a lot of luck on this side of the lake. Low expectations but high ceiling for sure.

[A-L-E-K]

9 minutes ago, homedis said:

Agree with all on this. It’s really the more disorganized lake effect/lake enhancement scenarios that we really cash in, these single intense lake effect band scenarios take a lot of luck on this side of the lake. Low expectations but high ceiling for sure.

same, mesolows can and do produce on this side, notably the mke event a few years back 

[Chicago Storm]

congrats southern cook and nw indiana?

[A-L-E-K]

my son has an overnight field trip to the dunes (in winter lol) thurs/fri, bus gonna get stuck in da plume on the way home

[mimillman]

GGEM:

[mimillman]

Time for the crazy HRRR runs 

[Chicago916]

We're all owed at least one run with a peak of 30in somewhere despite not being possible. 

[Chicago916]

Welp the lake effect is no longer in the room with us. Barely any modeled anymore.

[A-L-E-K]

On 1/28/2026 at 6:05 AM, A-L-E-K said:

going with 3 imby

 

$ - suspect it takes fri & sat to his 3 tho

 

Snow showers likely, mainly after 9am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 19. Wind chill values as low as -6. Northwest wind around 10 mph becoming northeast in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

 

[homedis]

Yeah looks like its gonna be mostly Lake Co, IN and Porter Co, but time will tell. If that band sits just a few miles to the west of where models are showing it, we could still be in play for more significant totals. Agree 2-3" is a good expectation at this time.

[ILSNOW]

Central Cook-Southern Cook-
Including the cities of Chicago, Calumet City, La Grange, Oak
Lawn, Lemont, Orland Park, Cicero, Oak Forest, Park Forest, and
Oak Park
129 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM CST FRIDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, snow expected. Total snow
  accumulations 2 to 3 inches, within a few hour period. For the
  Winter Storm Watch, heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow
  accumulations locally in excess of 6 inches possible, mainly near
  Lake Michigan.

* WHERE...Central Cook and Southern Cook Counties.

[mimillman]

13 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

Central Cook-Southern Cook-
Including the cities of Chicago, Calumet City, La Grange, Oak
Lawn, Lemont, Orland Park, Cicero, Oak Forest, Park Forest, and
Oak Park
129 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM CST FRIDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, snow expected. Total snow
  accumulations 2 to 3 inches, within a few hour period. For the
  Winter Storm Watch, heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow
  accumulations locally in excess of 6 inches possible, mainly near
  Lake Michigan.

* WHERE...Central Cook and Southern Cook Counties.

I’m confused by the two headlines 

[ILSNOW]

yep worded pretty poorly

Central and Southern cook convert from an advisory to winter storm watch at 3pm?

[homedis]

The "additional details" section clears it up. WWA covers the initial burst, WSW covers Friday evening with the main band.

 

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A burst of accumulating snow is expected mid
  to late Friday morning through early afternoon. The snow during
  this period may briefly fall at a rate of up to an inch per hour
  and make for slick travel conditions. Then, later Friday afternoon
  and evening, an intense band of heavy lake effect snow will
  develop over southern Lake Michigan, and may impact portions of
  central and southern Cook county near the lake for a period Friday
  evening before focusing eastward into northwestern Indiana later
  Friday night. While the residence time of this lake effect band
  over Cook county may only be 3 to 5 hours, the potential for heavy
  snow rates of 2+ inches per hour could result in localized
  accumulations exceeding 6 inches, particularly near the lake from
  the city southward.

[Baum]

40 minutes ago, homedis said:

The "additional details" section clears it up. WWA covers the initial burst, WSW covers Friday evening with the main band.

 

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A burst of accumulating snow is expected mid
  to late Friday morning through early afternoon. The snow during
  this period may briefly fall at a rate of up to an inch per hour
  and make for slick travel conditions. Then, later Friday afternoon
  and evening, an intense band of heavy lake effect snow will
  develop over southern Lake Michigan, and may impact portions of
  central and southern Cook county near the lake for a period Friday
  evening before focusing eastward into northwestern Indiana later
  Friday night. While the residence time of this lake effect band
  over Cook county may only be 3 to 5 hours, the potential for heavy
  snow rates of 2+ inches per hour could result in localized
  accumulations exceeding 6 inches, particularly near the lake from
  the city southward.

Why not just WSW from noon to midnight in that county area for potential of 6” or greater?

[Chicago Storm]

3 minutes ago, Baum said:

Why not just WSW from noon to midnight in that county area for potential of 6” or greater?

I'd say it's because each wave will be distinct, with a likely break between them.

Additionally, the first wave is a guarantee at this point. Though, quality/widespread WWA level snows may not materialize in the end, and may be more localized. The second wave (single plume) is more in question in regards to placement.

[RCNYILWX]

I'd say it's because each wave will be distinct, with a likely break between them.
Additionally, the first wave is a guarantee at this point. Though, quality/widespread WWA level snows may not materialize in the end, and may be more localized. The second wave (single plume) is more in question in regards to placement.

Well said. That's why we did it that way. We're definitely not confident eastern portion of Cook will get nailed tomorrow evening, but if it does it could snow 6-8" in 3-4 hours, so we wanted to play it safe with the watch, and hold onto the watch for Lake and Porter to account for the typical LES funny business.

And agree morning accums will likely be more localized vs widespread. Parameter space looks legit for 1"+/hr rates in spots under the heaviest echoes.

Sent from my SM-S936U using Tapatalk

[mimillman]

Not hating these hi res trends for NE IL

[Chicago916]

44 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Not hating these hi res trends for NE IL

What trends? Not seeing anything positive for the IL side tbh

[mimillman]

11 minutes ago, Chicago916 said:

What trends? Not seeing anything positive for the IL side tbh

Im not going to make GIFs but 3km NAM and HRRR both have trended towards a more significant front end push with slightly higher residence time over NE IL and have trended further west with the wobble of the band on Saturday.

ECMWF has also subtly been trending this way though not hi-res. 

[Chicago916]

1 minute ago, mimillman said:

Im not going to make GIFs but 3km NAM and HRRR both have trended towards a more significant front end push with slightly higher residence time over NE IL and have trended further west with the wobble of the band on Saturday.

ECMWF has also subtly been trending this way though not hi-res. 

3km NAM is useless here and barely paints any QPF anywhere, even in NW Indiana which is now under a WSW. HRRR isn't worth looking at either at extended range. I wish trends were good though 

[RCNYILWX]

3km NAM is useless here and barely paints any QPF anywhere, even in NW Indiana which is now under a WSW. HRRR isn't worth looking at either at extended range. I wish trends were good though 

The 3km NAM has been too low with lake enhanced/lake effect QPF, so simulated reflectivity and modeled visibility, plus forecast soundings, have been much more useful lately.

When a model is showing a half mile or less visibility in snow, it's resolving heavy snow, so the QPF/snow not matching up doesn't necessarily mean much in this particular setup.

The HRRR looks very close for the city tomorrow evening too and if the band maintains enough intensity and does get back into IL on Saturday, it could still have nice rates with it.

Another thing to keep in mind beyond the QPF is that ratios in the heaviest snow are basically a lock to be over 20:1 and quite possibly 30:1 or higher. So this is also a situation where the Kuchera ratios won't be high enough. The marine layer creates a bubble of slightly warmer temps that incorrectly lowers the ratios (method is based on layer MaxT from sfc to 500 mb).

[sbnwx85]

Yeah, parameters weren't great on this side of the lake today, and we still ended up with 25:1 ratios. 

[mimillman]

31 minutes ago, Chicago916 said:

3km NAM is useless here and barely paints any QPF anywhere, even in NW Indiana which is now under a WSW. HRRR isn't worth looking at either at extended range. I wish trends were good though 

Think you’re reading things too verbatim and not fully appreciating the run to run 

[A-L-E-K]

lots of piss and shit on the block that could use a dusting