Is we back? February discussion thread

[MJO812]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah but what are the precip forecasts because its been bone dry outside of that big storm. 

Most likely clippers like we see on the models. Might have to wait until the PNA goes towards neutral. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

If you notice, we have still yet to pull off a big coastal all-season long...the one big event was a half-assed low slamming into an arctic dome. It was a cheat code to a boring pattern.

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah but what are the precip forecasts because its been bone dry outside of that big storm. 

But has it? Last weekend the big one. The weekend before it was 2-4 and 5-8 west to east.  This weekend we’re missing out by a small margin…it hasn’t been that dry to be honest. Had we gotten this one…we’d be at 3 Sundays in a row with a snowstorm. 

[H2Otown_WX]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If you notice, we have still yet to pull off a big coastal all-season long...the one big event was a half-assed low slamming into an arctic dome. It was a cheat code to a boring pattern.

The only way we got a storm was to have a setup where it literally couldn't miss. Like throwing a baseball at the broad side of a barn. Tippy's fast compressed flow FTL. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

The only way we got a storm was to have a setup where it literally couldn't miss. Like throwing a baseball at the broad side of a barn. Tippy's fast compressed flow FTL. 

I agree with him that CC is a factor, but like I said, I think it's more an issue convective forcing destructively interfering with major east coast cyclogenesis...the storms are forming, just not near the BM. Either the lakes or Maritimes.

[H2Otown_WX]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree with him that CC is a factor, but like I said, I think it's more an issue convective forcing destructively interfering with major east coast cyclogenesis...the storms are forming, just not near the BM. Either the lakes or Maritimes.

Do you think the Gulf stream being disrupted or displaced could be a factor as well? I'm sure the PDO is screwing us too if it's still negative.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree with him that CC is a factor, but like I said, I think it's more an issue convective forcing destructively interfering with major east coast cyclogenesis...the storms are forming, just not near the BM. Either the lakes or Maritimes.

It seems to not be a factor for other places…so it doesn’t add up. But whatever. The southeast getting slammed tonight..fast flow didn’t seem to matter for them lol. It’s a flawed narrative. 

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

The only way we got a storm was to have a setup where it literally couldn't miss. Like throwing a baseball at the broad side of a barn. Tippy's fast compressed flow FTL. 

Ya, fast flow only hurts Southern New England…it’s comical. Everywhere else it isn’t a problem.  Hmmm? 

[SnoSki14]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It seems to not be a factor for other places…so it doesn’t add up. But whatever. The southeast getting slammed tonight..fast flow didn’t seem to matter for them lol. It’s a flawed narrative. 

Kind of a paradox that fast flow due to CC can lead to more snow down south vs northeast...as long as the cold is available of course 

[Ginx snewx]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree with him that CC is a factor, but like I said, I think it's more an issue convective forcing destructively interfering with major east coast cyclogenesis...the storms are forming, just not near the BM. Either the lakes or Maritimes.

Have you watched the news today?

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It seems to not be a factor for other places…so it doesn’t add up. But whatever. The southeast getting slammed tonight..fast flow didn’t seem to matter for them lol. It’s a flawed narrative. 

Right...that is my issue with the fast flow narrative. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right...that is my issue with the fast flow narrative. 

It's a bunch of bullshit 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

It's a bunch of bullshit 

COMPLETELY!  

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Have you watched the news today?

Well, if you have a powerful +TNH pattern, storms are going to have to form to the south, but you don't see them phasing proficienty to get up the coast until they are over the Atlantic. This is why when you watch the news, there is nothing more than flurries in your forecast tomorrow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

It's a bunch of bullshit 

No, the flow is faster...that is real. I just don't buy that this why we aren't getting storms bc other areas are...that's why I think it's more a combo of forcing, -PDO and bad. luck.

[SnoSki14]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, the flow is faster...that is real. I just don't buy that this why we aren't getting storms bc other areas are...that's why I think it's more a combo of forcing, -PDO and bad. luck.

Bad luck doesn't cause the coastal track to go dormant for years. Definitely the forcing though with those record ssts over the west Pacific 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, the flow is faster...that is real. I just don't buy that this why we aren't getting storms bc other areas are...that's why I think it's more a combo of forcing, -PDO and bad. luck.

Yet, the forcing works for other regions.? Bad luck is the real issue…just random BS bad luck. It happens. Shit happens. It’s never just one thing. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Bad luck doesn't cause the coastal track to go dormant for years. Definitely the forcing though with those record ssts over the west Pacific 

Right, but it is a factor....you can't be dialectical with this stuff.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Yet, the forcing works for other regions.? Bad luck is the real issue…just random BS bad luck. It happens. Shit happens. It’s never just one thing. 

Yes, that is how forcing works, JD. What is favorable for one area isn't inimical to others.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Bad luck doesn't cause the coastal track to go dormant for years. Definitely the forcing though with those record ssts over the west Pacific 

It’s not dormant…look at Virginia/the Carolinas , the mid Atlantic..it’s not dormant for them. Sometimes shit just comes together to freeze out a region from time to time, or over a certain period. That too will change at some point. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, that is how forcing works, JD. What is favorable for one area isn't inimical to others.

I know this …but there in lies the point. 

[Ginx snewx]

Lol fast flow only effects coastals in winter! Forget the hundreds of non snowstorms the last ten years. 

[EastonSN+]

The fast flow is real and occurring, however I doubt its permanent and I'm sure it happened in the past and was responsible for past crappy periods.

I mean 1970 through 1999 was horrific for big coastals.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

I know this …but there in lies the point. 

I don't follow you...

We have an arctic flow from Canada over the eastern half of the country in a +TNH pattern....we have a disturbance in the jet stream that pops a low on the southeast coast due to the regime being so suppressed....but if you have tropical forcing that destructively interferes with east coast amplification you tell me what you think is going to happen after that suppressed storm hits the se coast????

[40/70 Benchmark]

When the tropical forcing isn't favorable, it's like a scene out of the horror series "Final Destination" for east coast amplification....the atmosphere isn't going to flash a check engine light warning that hemispheric forcing regime is unfavorable...but what will happen is you will see phasing attempts retarded/sabotaged by defects like nipple lows, and chasing convection, which those who don't understand, or who wish to bury their head in the sand will attribute to "luck".

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol fast flow only effects coastals in winter! Forget the hundreds of non snowstorms the last ten years. 

Not arguing this. Agreed.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

When the tropical forcing isn't favorable, it's like scene out of the horror series "Final Destination" for east coast amplification....the atmosphere isn't going to flash a check engine light warning that hemispheric forcing regime is unfavorable...but what will happen is you will see a phasing attempts retarded by defects like nipple lows, and chasing convections that those who don't understand, and who wish to bury their head in the sand will attribute to "luck".

Cmon this lack of SNE coastals has occurred for extended periods since recorded time. Its the easy way out to attribute to CC. I laugh every time I read it. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, that is how forcing works, JD. What is favorable for one area isn't inimical to others.

But that is why the fast flow narrative is flawed…when it is used to say that’s why no  coastals for SNE.  Because if that was the case, there’d be zero coastals, and there’s a nice one going on tonight.  The reason it’s not getting to us is more than just one single thing. And those things at some point will correct themselves, and put us back in the coastal business. 

 

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

The fast flow is real and occurring, however I doubt its permanent and I'm sure it happened in the past and was responsible for past crappy periods.

I mean 1970 through 1999 was horrific for big coastals.

You’re right, It’s not permanent.  And it’s not the (only) reason why we haven’t had a good coastal. And Of course it’s happened before.  

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Cmon this lack of SNE coastals has occurred for extended periods since recorded time. It’s the easy way out to attribute to CC. I laugh every time I read it. 

Yup. It always has to be a CC attribution with some of these people…what a dam joke. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Cmon this lack of SNE coastals has occurred for extended periods since recorded time. Its the easy way out to attribute to CC. I laugh every time I read it. 

YES..absolutely agreed,...we have had extended periods of unfavorable forcing. I'm not saying this is anything that hasn't happened before, but I just think the CC is enhancing it a bit this go around...just like it will enhance the snow the next time we get croacked. The west pac warmth is enhancing the MJO in the crap phases, an making it averse to the favorable phases.