1-30/2-1-26 Arctic Blast, ULL Snow Event

[TellicoWx]

Be careful with the low res NAM (or any model) that has this sounding but spits out nothing.

[GBOVolz]

Look at the improvement the FV3 made from 0z to 12z.




12z





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[GBOVolz]

Be careful with the low res NAM (or any model) that has this sounding but spits out nothing.

What are you seeing?


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[fountainguy97]

Yes Nam family is always too dry. Fv3 is NICE with snow still falling and there will be NW flow behind this too.

[GBOVolz]

3k NAM at 6z then 12z







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[fountainguy97]

RRFS is catching on too although still behind the consensus

[nrgjeff]

Euro indeed improved so much at 06Z that is snows in.. Chattanooga!!
I'm cautiously optimistic with the very cold ULL and low-level soundings beneath it. 

NBM high-res Ensemble still lacks snow; but, I hypothesize the Ens algo isn't translating very light QPF to fluffy snow. We'll see.
NAM and others are trying to come around. Yeah FV3 hints. I get a choppy presentation on my sub, but it's snow in Tenn.

We need more of that Euro trend. Cue up Back That Thang Up by whoever sungs it. Maybe Stove could build a club /snow meme. Hip Hop snow dance!

[dwagner88]

I'm getting snow jam 2014 vibes. Very cold temps, very high ratio snow, there is the potential for very high impacts to roadways even with light amounts. 

[GBOVolz]

The high res mods sometimes start to increase their totals a day or so out with high ratio systems when they start seeing dynamics that the operational’s can’t see.


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[Bigbald]

This is looking like a State of Franklin special.  I am surprised MRX hasnt expanded the watch west, 6z and 12z are beefing up throughout.

[GBOVolz]

I remember the Jan 24’ system looked like a 3” at the most until a day or so out when the high res mods doubled their output.


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[housemtnTN]

9 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

I remember the Jan 24’ system looked like a 3” at the most until a day or so out when the high res mods doubled their output.


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I remember looking at the forecast the morning of and thinking gosh it sure is snowing a lot, it might be more than a couple inches lol.

[Kasper]

Who is breaking out the TROWEL?

[Hurricaneguy]

Can someone post a zoom in of East TN for the NBM? Looking good on the wider map 

[fountainguy97]

3 minutes ago, Hurricaneguy said:

Can someone post a zoom in of East TN for the NBM? Looking good on the wider map 

[Tucker1027]

Remember that is NBM is behind a run.. should see total jump up next run


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[Daniel Boone]

37 minutes ago, Bigbald said:

This is looking like a State of Franklin special.  I am surprised MRX hasnt expanded the watch west, 6z and 12z are beefing up throughout.

They use the NBM. It's going off last night's 0Z Runs.

[BlunderStorm]

About 24 hours out from the start of it here now.

 

The 12z ICON has put the plateau in proper play for the first time.

 

12z RGEM came out of the oven a bit dry. Will the trend taper? Stay tuned.

[Daniel Boone]

1 minute ago, BlunderStorm said:

The 12z ICON has put the plateau in proper play for the first time.

 

12z RGEM came out of the oven a bit dry. Will the trend taper? Stay tuned.

Hopefully a blip by the RGEM. That's a prefered Model . It has been the best SRM for the Area as far as accuracy.

[BlunderStorm]

[GBOVolz]

Still not bad


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[TellicoWx]

1 hour ago, TellicoWx said:

Be careful with the low res NAM (or any model) that has this sounding but spits out nothing.

This is a sounding from south of 40 on the low res NAM...it shows the DGZ fully saturated. But for some reason the lift disappears only in the DGZ (mountains alone would create some lift.) So to me there is an error either in the Sharpy or algorithm. Problem is that model is ingested into the NBM = faulty NBM. Since it seems most offices now solely rely on the NBM...

[Bigbald]

Should be money for the slopes.  Id have to believe Beech and Sugar get at least a foot of powder.  I am thinking of heading up there Saturday morning, hoping that the long duration powdery snow makes it a pretty managable drive for 4wd/ awd.  

[Silas Lang]

2 hours ago, Reb said:

12z NAM starts the show at 1600 tomorrow in Knox. Most other models start around 1900 FWIW. 

Noticed some models want to keep it snowing longer as well. 

[bearman]

I am surprised that it being 24 hours out that MRX has not updated surrounding areas to a WWA and for that matter included a few counties around the present WSW with advisories.  I guess however, knowing how conservative they are it reflects their normal movements.

[TellicoWx]

1 minute ago, bearman said:

I am surprised that it being 24 hours out that MRX has not updated surrounding areas to a WWA and for that matter included a few counties around the present WSW with advisories.  I guess however, knowing how conservative they are it reflects their normal movements.

If your south of 40 or west of 75..you're gonna need to send them a visual confirmation first lol...I have no doubt the social media backlash from the ice storm has made them lean heavily into their conservative side.

[TellicoWx]

5 hours ago, GBOVolz said:

Looks like @John1122 was right again about the 6z and 18z Euro being much different than the 0 And 12


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You guys do know that's from 2 separate storms (2nd is in the longer range) lol

[tnweathernut]

4 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

If your south of 40 or west of 75..you're gonna need to send them a visual confirmation first lol...I have no doubt the social media backlash from the ice storm has made them lean heavily into their conservative side.

I could almost see a discussion from management letting them know................."this is why we don't do anything other than conservative around here".   lol

[John1122]

9 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

You guys do know that's from 2 separate storms (2nd is in the longer range) lol

 

[GBOVolz]

You guys do know that's from 2 separate storms (2nd is in the longer range) lol

This is the Euro snow map I took the closeup screenshot of.





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