1-30/2-1-26 Arctic Blast, ULL Snow Event

[bearman]

5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z GEM-para illustrates the concern pretty well.  It has light snow, but that is about it.  It did well with the last system.  Generally, I have tossed the GFS in my thinking.  It was badly wrong w/ the last system over NE TN.  The GEM-para was very good.

One thing I have learned is not to expect anything that Carver does not see happening.  So this tells me how to set my expectations.

[midwoodian]

ehhhhh Pivotal looks better, so we'll go with that:

Look at that snow hole for Chatty


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[suzbyrd]

24 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah. It's looking more and more like that's a possibility. Hopefully the ULL will pull enough moisture into it before everything explodes east of us. Maybe we squeeze out a few inches rhat way.

    That 1980 Analogy is looking pretty spot on if that turns out to be the Case. I wish I knew the exact Date of that Storm . Need to look it up and see what the Setup was. As stated earlier, 3 inches here with a steady increase as you went Eastward. Eastern NC and SEVA was pulverized. Massive Drifts in Norfolk. 

     This Winter is turning into a banner one for them considering the 3 Snowfalls in December they got.

March 1-3, 1980

[tnweathernut]

I think northeast TN is in a pretty good spot.  If I was in Knoxville west to the plateau I'd be much more concerned about precipitation amounts, and I think middle TN needs a prayer.  Lots of modeling has a good pass and good consistency.  I noticed the ICON (which I don't really like) jumped west and finally joined the other models.  Of course we could fail, but I am much more confident about this one than the last system.  

[GBOVolz]

One good thing about the analogs that I have seen…. From what I could tell the top five analogs all had decent amounts of snow reaching back into East Tennessee almost to the plateau.


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[tnweathernut]

The 18z NBM increased totals from Knoxville and points east and has been beefing up the last several runs, FWIW

[Tucker1027]

https://x.com/gmengel/status/2016614512481169902?s=46&t=sfs6kta7ijyVFPbzpqZcJg


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[*Flash*]

8 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

I think northeast TN is in a pretty good spot.  If I was in Knoxville west to the plateau I'd be much more concerned about precipitation amounts, and I think middle TN needs a prayer.  Lots of modeling has a good pass and good consistency.  I noticed the ICON (which I don't really like) jumped west and finally joined the other models.  Of course we could fail, but I am much more confident about this one than the last system.  

Middle TN needs a prayer. No kidding!

[tnweathernut]

8 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Middle TN needs a prayer. No kidding!

You are definitely right! Prayers in more ways than one ….I had hoped they’d have been able to make more progress before the next blast of cold air came rushing in.

[Carvers Gap]

45 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

People still look at the GFS?

Like a B movie.   It is the first model to roll and nothing else is showing. 

[Carvers Gap]

42 minutes ago, bearman said:

One thing I have learned is not to expect anything that Carver does not see happening.  So this tells me how to set my expectations.

We could score…I just am not sold on this set up.  And I freely admit I have been wrong and will be wrong again.  Hopefully, we score!

[fountainguy97]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Models have continued to denote a very sharp cutoff over E TN, and MBY is not immune to that either.  I still do not trust modeling with this storm.  I have seen this type of setup go "poof" even as the storm is ongoing.  We need that slp tucked to the west of Hatteras.  If it isn't, no matter how much models try to make it happen.....the system usually can't get past the foothills on the west slopes.  I won't say it is fool's gold.  I think we have a chance at some light snow, but that SLP is waaaaay over there on the coast.   Even for NE TN, this is gonna take some work to get snow here.  My confidence remains low in how this is portrayed.

But how much of the precip is actually from the SLP along the coast? My understanding is the vast majority of what we are getting is associated with the 700mb low and the 5h energy. 

Not many coastal storms have occurred since I've been here. So I'm out of my league there.

In general I do agree this is a fickle setup and one that I'm still skeptical of. 

[zippity]

1 hour ago, GBOVolz said:

I would feel much better if this map looked like this…


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Poor Chattanooga...they get missed even more than HSV.

[John1122]

The GFS caved to the Euro earlier than normal. 

[Vol4Life]

3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The GFS caved to the Euro earlier than normal. 

Besides the RGEM and GEFS (looked decent), I’m not really liking the 18z suite

[Carvers Gap]

16 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

But how much of the precip is actually from the SLP along the coast? My understanding is the vast majority of what we are getting is associated with the 700mb low and the 5h energy. 

Not many coastal storms have occurred since I've been here. So I'm out of my league there.

In general I do agree this is a fickle setup and one that I'm still skeptical of. 

I would guess you are good, and fair point.  Some of this is homegrown dynamics w/ the ULL.  However, the runs w/ the big amounts appear to be grabbing an Atlantic fetch.  I am beyond skeptical of that.

[ShawnEastTN]

One thing I will add to this conversation is that from years of these storm types and tracks the the line between the haves and have nots is usually very abrupt.  I've seen where I am located which is just about 8 miles from the Eastern Escarpment of the plateau get several inches of snow and it snow for hours but 8 miles away on the plateau itself dusting or nothing at all.  Track really matters and the line will likely be much more sharp than many model output snow maps show.

[John1122]

The most frustrating thing about all this is that we've had an epic pattern but haven't done diddly squat with it east of the midstate. 

[fountainguy97]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I would guess you are good, and fair point.  Some if this is homegrown dynamics w/ the ULL.  However, the runs w/ the big amounts appear to be grabbing an Atlantic fetch.  I am beyond skeptical of that.

Me too. I think the RGEM actually would be the scenario you are suggesting. ULL/home grown and then a quicker pulling to the coast.  

[Vol4Life]

1 minute ago, ShawnEastTN said:

One thing I will add to this conversation is that from years of these storm types and tracks the the line between the haves and have nots is usually very abrupt.  I've seen where where I am located which is just about 8 miles from the Eastern Escarpment of the plateau get several inches of snow and it snow for hours but 8 miles away on the plateau itself dusting or nothing at all.  Track really matters and the line will likely be much more sharp than many model output snow maps show.

The models have been showing a pretty abrupt cutoff.  For example, Knox County is being shown on multiple models as a 4+ inch difference from east Knox to west Knox.

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Save the itchy algae! said:

All true, but these events are exactly why NE Tennessee averages the most snow in the state, without respect to elevation. Jelly for your locale. I chose west Knox blindly based on schools, if I had to do it again I’d be up your way somewhere or far north Knox or southern Anderson counties probably.

Knoxville has been beating us pretty badly of late - way more during the past 4-5 years.  This current pattern is definitely a pattern we can score with in NE TN.  No idea if that actually happens.  I just don't like the dynamics w/ this current setup.  I have been burned both ways - it over performing or under performing.  A strong low on a cold front is notoriously tough to forecast.  The partial phase I don't think is worked out quite yet.  But I do agree...a strong ULL crashing into NE TN will often produce light snow regardless of setup...the bigger amounts I don't trust.  Lighter amounts appear probable.

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Me too. I think the RGEM actually would be the scenario you are suggesting. ULL/home grown and then a quicker pulling to the coast.  

That looks reasonable, but I would still cut maybe 50% of my totals in western Sullivan Co.  I think the mountains are gonna get hammered due to orographic lift.  Anywhere w/ good NW facing slopes could score.  This "should" wring out every, last drop.   Bitterly cold air masses have held surprises in NE TN.  I don't like the 18z GFS trends, but the 18z RGEM looks reasonable.  

Anyone know when these vortices and air masses are over NA where they get sampled better?  I think Tellico noted we would see one last truncation w/ that.  I agree.

[ShawnEastTN]

8 minutes ago, Vol4Life said:

The models have been showing a pretty abrupt cutoff.  For example, Knox County is being shown on multiple models as a 4+ inch difference from east Knox to west Knox.

Yeah some have shown that while others show a weird abrupt line in the valley but then show plateau with accumulations, which from most experiences with this type of setup doesn't usually happen that way, it's usually a near perfect line north to south or NE to SW somewhere in East or middle Tennessee from the state's northern border to southern border where everyone East of that near Perfect line regardless of elevation gets snow and west of regardless of elevation get nothing.  A true have and have nots scenario that elevation does not generally influence.

[Carvers Gap]

8 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The most frustrating thing about all this is that we've had an epic pattern but haven't done diddly squat with it east of the midstate. 

Reminds me of 17-18 at the end of December.  JB mentioned that the last half of February might have a strong STJ component along w/ cold.  I tend to agree with him though I haven't looked at the Weeklies today.  I kind of think nickel and dime stuff is the rule for right now.  It is crazy cold with low wind chills outside right now.  I really don't even want to think about the weekend cold!

[Carvers Gap]

8 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The most frustrating thing about all this is that we've had an epic pattern but haven't done diddly squat with it east of the midstate. 

I think somehow the Plateau finds its way to 3-4" this weekend either with upslope or initial orographic lift w/ the main wave of precip.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Anyone know when these vortices and air masses are over NA where they get sampled better?

Right now its a big soup over Hudson's Bay 

 

 

All that kind of gets compressed as it rotates south, by a ridge pressing down

 

 

 

They're also doing another hurricane hunters dropsonde mission this evening. Looks like it is trying to sample some of the atmosphere that the Pac is going to sling at is as it rotates down:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Current mid level water vapor shows the vort soup starting to be compressed: 

[Tucker1027]

Might drive to Knoxville just to feel the white powder for myself…

Really hope y’all reel this in for a good snow up there


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[bearman]

John 1122 always finds a way. 

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I think somehow the Plateau finds its way to 3-4" this weekend either with upslope or initial orographic lift w/ the main wave of precip.  

I can not stop looking at this.  It even looks better now.  I might like that low a little farther north right under Atlanta.  I remember a time when I was younger and lived in  Cleveland. I had not been paying attention to the weather. I was sitting at a streetlight and all of a sudden the sky seemed to fall, and it was full of giant fatties. It was like no flakes at all and then boom, the sky was full of giant flakes.  The set-up was like the one we have now. And I remembered thinking how i could not believe we were getting snow in such cold temperatures with a low so far away over cape Hatteras.

 

 

 

[GBOVolz]

Sometimes with these lows riding the coast, the NW precipitation shield can be larger than what the computer models are showing


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