February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

[BlizzardNole]

51 minutes ago, LongRanger said:

fwiw, during the cold winters of the '70s, the longwave pattern shifted as spring neared such that we flipped to the warm side

This reminds me of the winter of '77 in MD where we got a moderate snow of around 6" with a crust of ice followed by weeks of frigid and dry.  The glacier lasted for weeks and January was an incredible -12 departure at DCA, but it lacked in the total snow department.

[clueless]

@270 we get clipped on the GFS. Also just one week shy of sun angle season. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

19 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Any idea of when the February thaw arrives?

With our luck, March.

[87storms]

25 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

With our luck, March.

Temps in the 30s might feel like a thaw by next week.

[CAPE]

3 hours ago, Ji said:

Feb 11-12 window?

Long way out so I would expand that window a bit.. 

The NA looks very favorable and I know Chuck will swoop in here and do his -PNA deb thing, but this works out at times(more so in a Nino) with potentially significant energy ejecting eastward from the SW.

[Weather Will]

Sigh:  WB 18Z EURO AI; can't make this stuff up.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

Sigh:  WB 18Z EURO AI; can't make this stuff up.

LOL come on dude with the snow maps 2 weeks out

[Weather Will]

Just now, CAPE said:

LOL come on dude with the snow maps 2 weeks out

I know but that picture fits the mood right now....

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Long way out so I would expand that window a bit.. 

The NA looks very favorable and I know Chuck will swoop in here and do his -PNA deb thing, but this works out at times(more so in a Nino) with potentially significant energy ejecting eastward from the SW.

I like that general LW pattern a lot. Precip isn't usually a problem unlike an amplified +pna/-epo pattern with the ridge axis over the west conus. The pna/epo pattern is colder but it difficult to get moisture laden storms. Lots of fronts and high-pressures without big synoptic systems. The pattern in your post has multiple ways for some juice in the system. 

I've been casually watching the cfs weeklies and they've been looking tasty for the second half of Feb for at least the past week. Similar to what you posted just 2 weeks later:

 

 

[CAPE]

Latest weeklies for mid Feb. NA blocking and a Nino-ish look overall. It generally likes to snow here in Feb, and this is an h5 look that can facilitate that.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Latest weeklies for mid Feb. NA blocking and a Nino-ish look overall. It generally likes to snow here in Feb, and this is an h5 look that can facilitate that.

It's funny how February has historically been our snowiest month...yet since 2016 it's been mostly terrible! Would be good to have a traditional snow February for a change