Jan 24 - 26 2026 Ice, sleet, and for a lucky few..... snow storm

[Holston_River_Rambler]

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Yesterday, fountain guy noticed that some of the hi-res CAMs were showing some ice cutting across the eastern Unakas into the Great Eastern Valley of Tennessee.  This seemed odd, since normally CAD (Cold Air Damming) events are a meteorological phenomenon of the eastern side of the Apps, when cold arctic highs ooze down the foothills of Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and sometimes Georgia. The cold air is shallow however and typically cannot make it overt he Appalachian mountains. 

Here are some of the images showing the cold air bleeding across the NC and TN border as well as some downslope warming:

 

Dewpoints:

 

Dewpoints really make this evident when set in motion:

 

Here are the relevant topography features. I only put the Nolichukcy and French Broad Valleys on there since they are two of the larger rivers, but the Doe and the Watauga also cut into CAD areas:

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

This is all I have time for now, but don't think this thread is just for obs. about about the potential for the phenomena above. I'm sure we'll have plenty of other phots as long as we have power. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Other microclimates of potential interest for this system on the 6z NAM:

[GBOVolz]

Other microclimates of potential interest for this system on the 6z NAM:

This is why I believe parts of N Knox Co might stay frozen longer than other areas. My area is in the pink.


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[Scottie16]

Not sure if models have adjusted to the HP not being a day behind the first. 1050, 1051, 1049. Not sure how this will adjust things going forward.


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[Scottie16]

Conus Temp profiles. Light Purple is the 32 mark.


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[Scottie16]

Rambler I cannot post this image gif. If you’d be kind to do so. Definitely can see how things are unfolding with it.


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

2 hours ago, Scottie16 said:

Rambler I cannot post this image gif. If you’d be kind to do so. Definitely can see how things are unfolding with it.

Here you go:

 

Good tropical connection and you can see the shortwave that shall not be named dropping in over Alberta:

 

 

 

[Scottie16]

Cloud cover has moved in. 49• was hit at 2:30. Currently sitting at 45• with 33% humidity. Low humidity will help drop temperatures this evening.


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[Scottie16]

Colder temps on the plateau are starting to seep into the Valley.


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[John1122]

Current observation. People are losing their minds. Multiple gas stations in LaFollette are out of fuel. I was headed to a movie and dinner in West Knox and went to fill up at a station. I was only able to get 57 cents mid grade. No regular. A guy beside me was filling up 10 5 gallon cans with premium. I was mystified. We've faced much worse many times over the years. I blame the social media people who deal only in extremes to.get more engagement. 

[Scottie16]

Current observation. People are losing their minds. Multiple gas stations in LaFollette are out of fuel. I was headed to a movie and dinner in West Knox and went to fill up at a station. I was only able to get 57 cents mid grade. No regular. A guy beside me was filling up 10 5 gallon cans with premium. I was mystified. We've faced much worse many times over the years. I blame the social media people who deal only in extremes to.get more engagement. 

A lot of people will not trust metrologist after this passes.


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[Mr Bob]

Yeah, well, Scottie, this has always been the case. It has more visibility now than it used to....for every blizzard of 93 where it was forecast 5 days out to the March 2001 debacle in the northeast....such is living as a meteorologist. I burnt out on this stuff a while ago but I still enjoy watching the lead in. Most meteorologists add massive value to people's lives but only get called out when it goes wrong. Until they make a computer that can intake data from every point on the globe at every altitude all at once then model it, things won't change (i.e. won't happen in our life time) ...and if it does eventually happen, then it will be boring....

[John1122]

Currently 23.4 degrees. Dew point is 8. 

[John1122]

30 minutes later, skies cleared and it's now 21.2, dp 6. 

[Scottie16]

Very light snow in Sweetwater, Currently 24 with a dew point of 16.


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

Sleet and snow here in MoCo too. 

[zippity]

25F and the roads are coated in sleet. Dewpoint is 14 F. 

[bearman]

Let's get this show on the road.  I am in West Knoxville, and we do not have anything yet.  Surprised it is already coming up the valley.

[Uncle Nasty]

Can verify very light sleet and very very very light snow in Ooltewah. Temp was a steady 32° and dropped to 31° after light mix started.


I won't clutter up anymore unless things change drastically. Putting this out so people waiting on the arrival mightbknow what to expect.


Just went outside. Temp has dropped to 29°. All elevated surfaces are glazed over. Jeep is a solid sheet of ice. Pavement and concrete is wet only, but grass is crunchy. Moved Jeep to the road since driveway is sloped. Door already made a loud pop when I opened it due to ice already freezing it. Let's see where this goes. Since it's light ice coming down, that could be bad for power lines.




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[Holston_River_Rambler]

Nice dendrite in the pre dawn hours:

 

The actual Baja low hasn't made landfall on Baja quite yet:

 

 

 

[bearman]

Just spotted the very first flake in West Knoxville.   That was very fast I would have thought it would take longer for the column to saturate.

[Scottie16]

Puking dime size flakes at times.


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

SPC has given us a mesoscale disco:

 

 Mesoscale Discussion 0041
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0554 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

   Areas affected...Southern Kentucky...Western and Middle
   Tennessee...Far Northern Alabama...Far Northern Mississippi

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 241154Z - 241800Z

   SUMMARY...A mix of wintry precipitation is expected this morning
   from the Mid-South northeastward into Tennessee and southern
   Kentucky, where snow, sleet and freezing rain will be possible this
   morning.

   DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery across the southeastern
   U.S. shows a large area of precipitation from Arkansas extending
   eastward to the southern Appalachians. This precipitation is being
   supported by strong lift associated with the right entrance region
   of an expansive mid-level jet, and by ascent due to a 40 to 50 knot
   low-level jet over the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. The nose of
   the low-level jet will move east-northeastward across the Mid-South
   and Tennessee Valley this morning, contributing to the maintenance
   of widespread precipitation. RAP forecast soundings across the
   region have a warm nose from 900 to 700 mb, where temperatures are
   forecast to gradually warm to near 0 C after daybreak this morning.
   This will result in a wintry mix of precipitation. Snow may continue
   in parts of southern Kentucky through midday. However, further south
   into western and middle Tennessee, a transition to sleet and
   freezing rain will be likely. In far northern Mississippi and far
   northern Alabama, the predominant precipitation type will be
   freezing rain.

   ..Broyles/Mosier.. 01/24/2026

 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

You can actually see the lift associated with the right entrance region of the mid level jet the SPC talks about in the satellite overnight:

mid level jet:

 

Watch this area:

 

 

 

[dwagner88]

Sleet and ZR mix here. 28 degrees. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

HRRR really showing very specific areas of downsloping in NE TN this afternoon:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Baseline for later obs:

 

Not much difference between East TN and CAD areas this AM 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Morgan county has almost a 10 degree difference from NW -> SE: