January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage JV/Banter Thread!

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

My bad. Wont happen again.

It’s all good, it’s a drinking night for you. 

[pazzo83]

lol oh yeah, he's probably a few drinks in.  gotta let it slide.

[SnowenOutThere]

9 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

honestly I do not envy being a big NE city mayor during a snowstorm, particularly NYC.  Fucking up a snowstorm will turn the city against you with a vengeance.  There was a storm late in Bloomberg's last term where some of the outer boroughs didn't get plowed in a timely manner - boy he got ripped to pieces.  And then early in BDB's tenure, the city wasn't ready for a big storm to hit.  Dude got raked over the coals for weeks.  Snowstorms are serious business in the city that never sleeps.

I wonder if you could do a whole case study on events like that. It’s something I’ll think about as I progress through my college courses and humanities writings. 

[pazzo83]

in all seriousness though - AND THIS IS NOT A POLITICAL POST - this is the type of thing that can completely derail you as mayor in DC to Boston.  We'll see how DC does, but the snow operation actually has been pretty good.  DSNY in NYC does a phenomenal job - they basically just take all the sanitation trucks and turn them into snow plows.  Over time BDB figured out a good strategy of basically banning all but essential travel during and immediately after the storm - and they would just go nuts plowing the entire city.  I believe Adams basically continued this.  It's really the only way to do it, particularly in Manhattan and Brooklyn.

[pazzo83]

This is no joke - but after 2016, when we got around 30" - they did that travel ban.  Snow stopped just before midnight - I believe it was a Saturday right?  The next morning basically all the streets in Manhattan were clear, and a majority of streets in the other boroughs were clear over the next day.

[TowsonWeather]

1 hour ago, Steve25 said:

I guess I stand alone on this, but I’d be pretty happy with anything 6+ of snow even if it’s followed by a bunch of sleet. I haven’t witnessed a 6 inch snowfall in Baltimore in 10 years. To have it be followed by potentially a full week of sub-freezing temps, too? It’ll feel like deep winter, and I’ll love it. I’d take that 10 out of 10 times over 2 feet of snow that ends up melting down within a week or two. 
 

Obviously any time you compare to what could’ve been, it’s going to drive you crazy. It’s not like we were ever locked in for massive snows with this one, though. There has definitely been modeling that’s given us hope of that, but there have been constant concerns. We literally went from being worried about suppression to being worried about it being too amped in what felt like the blink of an eye. 
 

Also, this is a very Baltimore area post. For those of you further south/east, I empathize with you. And hey, maybe this thing will COMPLETELY fall apart for us up here too. Still plenty of time for disastrous changes lol

Brother, the folks to our south have cashed in several times since the last time Baltimore and the north Baltimore burbs got anything approaching a respectable storm. I haven't cracked 6 inches in a DECADE. Of course - of COURSE - I would dearly love for the entire region to get buried under 3-foot drifts of wind driven snow, but if St. Mary's has to get skunked for me to get 10 inches, I would throw them overboard so fast their heads would spin.

A lot of the board angst and frustration is coming from folks in our area that are in an incredible snow drought and if a worst case scenario comes true and we end up with 4-5 inches and some slop, I'm not gonna pretend not to be incredibly disappointed. 10 inches and some sleet - woo! Pop the champagne! I'm all in. I don't need 2 feet to be happy. But yet another rug pull while places within driving distance get deep snow? It fucking sucks and there's no sugarcoating that. 

[pazzo83]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I wonder if you could do a whole case study on events like that. It’s something I’ll think about as I progress through my college courses and humanities writings. 

I'm sure there have been some done - they have wrecked many political careers

[Steve25]

7 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

Brother, the folks to our south have cashed in several times since the last time Baltimore and the north Baltimore burbs got anything approaching a respectable storm. I haven't cracked 6 inches in a DECADE. Of course - of COURSE - I would dearly love for the entire region to get buried under 3-foot drifts of wind driven snow, but if St. Mary's has to get skunked for me to get 10 inches, I would throw them overboard so fast their heads would spin.

A lot of the board angst and frustration is coming from folks in our area that are in an incredible snow drought and if a worst case scenario comes true and we end up with 4-5 inches and some slop, I'm not gonna pretend not to be incredibly disappointed. 10 inches and some sleet - woo! Pop the champagne! I'm all in. I don't need 2 feet to be happy. But yet another rug pull while places within driving distance get deep snow? It fucking sucks and there's no sugarcoating that. 

I mean, I’m mostly with you. I live in that same spot, and I definitely share the same frustration. It’s been a brutal decade. 
 

The only thing I probably differ from you on is that I don’t think I view like let’s say 6 or 7 inches that much different than 9 or 10. ESPECIALLY if it’s like 6 inches that’s going to stick around for a WHILE. 
 

I will say that 4-5 or less would be very annoying just because I’ve experienced a few of those types of events over the past decade. It’s all arbitrary, but 6 inches to me is the border between snow event and snow “storm.” If I get more than 6, I’ll feel like I experienced my first snowstorm in 10 years and that would be a win to me. Just personal preference I guess. 

[RDM]

16 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

in all seriousness though - AND THIS IS NOT A POLITICAL POST - this is the type of thing that can completely derail you as mayor in DC to Boston.  We'll see how DC does, but the snow operation actually has been pretty good.  DSNY in NYC does a phenomenal job - they basically just take all the sanitation trucks and turn them into snow plows.  Over time BDB figured out a good strategy of basically banning all but essential travel during and immediately after the storm - and they would just go nuts plowing the entire city.  I believe Adams basically continued this.  It's really the only way to do it, particularly in Manhattan and Brooklyn.

Yup - agree on NYC doing a great job.  They don't mess around much with the small (2-4") stuff, but when needed their mobilization is impressive.  My wife and I have an apt on the Upper West Side right on Broadway and their organization is impressive - with an army of garbage trucks (as you said).  It makes so much sense dunno why more cities don't use the garbage trucks.  They are heavy and have good traction etc.  

[Kay]

19 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

Brother, the folks to our south have cashed in several times since the last time Baltimore and the north Baltimore burbs got anything approaching a respectable storm. I haven't cracked 6 inches in a DECADE. Of course - of COURSE - I would dearly love for the entire region to get buried under 3-foot drifts of wind driven snow, but if St. Mary's has to get skunked for me to get 10 inches, I would throw them overboard so fast their heads would spin.

A lot of the board angst and frustration is coming from folks in our area that are in an incredible snow drought and if a worst case scenario comes true and we end up with 4-5 inches and some slop, I'm not gonna pretend not to be incredibly disappointed. 10 inches and some sleet - woo! Pop the champagne! I'm all in. I don't need 2 feet to be happy. But yet another rug pull while places within driving distance get deep snow? It fucking sucks and there's no sugarcoating that. 

In the same pathetic snow hole. Have been thinking/now hoping 6" is our floor. 

[Nomz]

Never ever doubted the euro... lol

[pazzo83]

7 minutes ago, RDM said:

Yup - agree on NYC doing a great job.  They don't mess around much with the small (2-4") stuff, but when needed their mobilization is impressive.  My wife and I have an apt on the Upper West Side right on Broadway and their organization is impressive - with an army of garbage trucks (as you said).  It makes so much sense dunno why more cities don't use the garbage trucks.  They are heavy and have good traction etc.  

yeah the issue is if you get a bunch of snowstorms back-to-back.  Then the garbage might not get collected for a while lol (this happened in January 2011)

[MDsnowPRO]

11 minutes ago, RDM said:

Yup - agree on NYC doing a great job.  They don't mess around much with the small (2-4") stuff, but when needed their mobilization is impressive.  My wife and I have an apt on the Upper West Side right on Broadway and their organization is impressive - with an army of garbage trucks (as you said).  It makes so much sense dunno why more cities don't use the garbage trucks.  They are heavy and have good traction etc.  

because most trash trucks, especially more modern ones aren’t  designed for plows. Plus the lack of ability to carry salt is a major downside 

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, MDsnowPRO said:

because most trash trucks, especially more modern ones are designed for plows. Plus the lack of ability to carry salt is a major downside 

Ah I was in NYC for the Boxing Day storm this year and wondered why there was so little salt compared to our roads down here. I do think the less salt and more focus on clearing is the better way for a city and it’s more environmentally friendly. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Also hey everyone please be mindful of our snow removal/city planning thread. Make sure all relevant storm discussion stays out of here. 

[Fozz]

Happy 10 year anniversary for one of the greatest mid-Atlantic blizzards of all time!

Still feels like yesterday. It was as close to perfection as any storm can get.

[pazzo83]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Ah I was in NYC for the Boxing Day storm this year and wondered why there was so little salt compared to our roads down here. I do think the less salt and more focus on clearing is the better way for a city and it’s more environmentally friendly. 

yeah - DC definitely salts WAY more.  Like our streets right now are basically white.

[EHoffman]

1 minute ago, Fozz said:

Happy 10 year anniversary for one of the greatest mid-Atlantic blizzards of all time!

Still feels like yesterday. It was as close to perfection as any storm can get.

Truly the best storm I think I'll ever experience.

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, pazzo83 said:

yeah - DC definitely salts WAY more.  Like our streets right now are basically white.

The Potomac River is probably salt water at this point 

[Fozz]

1 hour ago, Steve25 said:

I feel like there’s some fatigue going on or something. A model comes out and shows 6-8 inches followed by sleet in some spots and this place feels like it melts down and goes into disaster mode, but then a model shows like 8-10 inches followed by sleet and people act like it’s a big win. I understand 8-10 is more than 6-8, but is it REALLY that much bigger where you’re like omg this makes or breaks this storm for me? 
 

Idk. Maybe it’s just that the lower it gets, the closer you feel to a few more tweaks and it becomes an unmitigated disaster, but on paper I just think some of the reactions to rather minor accumulation differences have been a bit over the top. 

8” is a big psychological cutoff for many.

For a lot of people, the line between a moderate snow event and a major snowstorm is right around 8” or so. When you get close to double digits then it starts to look like what many would call a MECS. And I don’t just mean the number, but also the look of the snowpack.

[pazzo83]

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

The Potomac River is probably salt water at this point 

yeah I can only imagine - I hope they don't put the plowed snow in there

[MDsnowPRO]

8 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Ah I was in NYC for the Boxing Day storm this year and wondered why there was so little salt compared to our roads down here. I do think the less salt and more focus on clearing is the better way for a city and it’s more environmentally friendly. 

In the DMV area, public works trucks probably salt on average 15 to 20 times a year, while plowing only a handful, so in order to keep roads passable and reduce risk of collisions, salt/brine is a necessary evil. NYC salts as well, probably more than the DMV. They also rely heavily on pre treatment with brine to reduce adhesion of ice 

[MDsnowPRO]

3 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

yeah I can only imagine - I hope they don't put the plowed snow in there

Illegal to dump directly into a river, during large historic snowfalls, staging areas are set up for snow stock piling and then generally a snow melter is brought in if they run out of room. Lot 7 at RFK stadium was the dump site in 2016 I believe   

[Nomz]

Boston also salts heavily, although recently we've probably rationed our supply better (also there hasn't been much winter precip) since 2015 when we nearly ran out of salt and sand. If you've ever driven up to where 95 meets 128, you'll see one of the massive salt warehouses. 

[Steve25]

5 minutes ago, Fozz said:

8” is a big psychological cutoff for many.

For a lot of people, the line between a moderate snow event and a major snowstorm is right around 8” or so. When you get close to double digits then it starts to look like what many would call a MECS. And I don’t just mean the number, but also the look of the snowpack.

I’ll be honest, I’ve kind of forgotten what anything more than 4ish inches of snow looks like because it’s been so long. I keep saying 6 inches is my psychological cutoff, but maybe I am going to little. 

[pazzo83]

3 minutes ago, MDsnowPRO said:

Illegal to dump directly into a river, during large historic snowfalls, staging areas are set up for snow stock piling and then generally a snow melter is brought in if they run out of room. Lot 7 at RFK stadium was the dump site in 2016 I believe   

yeah if I recall during the epic run that Boston had in 2015, they were putting snow in Fenway.  Was actually an issue as baseball season was getting started, because there was snow still there.

[Fozz]

2 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

I’ll be honest, I’ve kind of forgotten what anything more than 4ish inches of snow looks like because it’s been so long. I keep saying 6 inches is my psychological cutoff, but maybe I am going to little. 

I’d be shocked if you don’t easily surpass that cutoff this weekend. All those places north of Baltimore will be getting what is long overdue. At least 6-10”.

[TowsonWeather]

The GFS comes in very similar to it's 18Z run: "The cave is starting!"

The EURO comes in much flatter and colder and looks a lot more like the GFS WRT snow totals: "EURO pretty much a hold."

 

The clutching of narratives is weird, man. 

Hey, we could all see a rug pull tomorrow, a joyous trend to colder and snowier, or anything in between, but the model analysis tonight has been poor.

[MDsnowPRO]

9 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

The GFS comes in very similar to it's 18Z run: "The cave is starting!"

The EURO comes in much flatter and colder and looks a lot more like the GFS WRT snow totals: "EURO pretty much a hold."

 

The clutching of narratives is weird, man. 

Hey, we could all see a rug pull tomorrow, a joyous trend to colder and snowier, or anything in between, but the model analysis tonight has been poor.

You’re not new here, this is the way things are handle by a lot of posters, especially the insomniac overnight crew 

[TowsonWeather]

7 minutes ago, MDsnowPRO said:

You’re not new here, this is the way things are handle by a lot of posters, especially the insomniac overnight crew 

Oh, I know, it's just especially noticeable to me for whatever reason.